SlideShare a Scribd company logo
19 April
2019
PAGE 2
•
10
2.5596% 3
10
•
0.21%
0.13%
408.6
•
0.06%
0.08%
0.04% 0.30%
0.32%
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
0.22
0.03
0.54
0.81
0.57
0.93
0.98
0.94
1.37
1.10
0.74
0.94
1.67
1.12
1.68
-0.44
-0.32
-0.18
-0.13
-0.08
-0.04
0.04
0.06
0.06
0.08
0.11
0.13
0.21
0.30
0.48
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
(Medicare for All)
S&P 500 0.58%
•
600 0.92%
•
225
1.74% NTT Docomo
• GDP
1.89% 13
• 10 6
0.31%
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
-4.12
-5.42
1.07
2.18
2.01
2.54
1.24
2.73
2.19
0.80
4.03
2.74
4.27
2.34
4.97
4.85
-1.84
-0.19
0.31
0.46
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.68
0.92
1.30
1.37
1.38
1.42
1.74
1.89
2.41
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
500
MSCI
MSCI
600
H
RTS
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
DAX
% %
PAGE 4
•
OPEC+
• 4 12
139.6 ( ) 230
117.4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/4/18
-2.74
-0.50
-2.70
-2.79
-2.14
-3.50
1.23
-2.79
2.71
8.31
0.79
6.56
-3.53
-3.42
-2.34
-1.65
-1.29
-0.42
-0.10
0.38
0.43
0.66
1.06
1.61
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 11 19
25 11
6
• 80 48
14
12 15 14
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/4/17
PAGE 7
• 2016 WTO
WTO
5
( 1)
• 2
1 511 494 ( 2)
301 Trump
•
• Trump Mueller
Trump
Trump
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 1) 500
( 2)
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Natural Resource Partners
• S&P 500
15% 78%
( 2) 48%
1 S&P 500
-1.7%
• 3 2
1.6% 1% 2
0.2%
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 2) ( )
( 1)
PAGE 9
• 4
(PMI) 47.8( 1) 47.5
3
PMI 50
PMI 51.3
• 200
• GDP
1% 0.5%
2018 1.4%
• 4 PMI
49.2 49.5( 2) 3
50 3
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 1) PMI
( 2) PMI
PAGE 10
•
GDP
6.4%( 1) 6.3%
3
• 3 M2
8.6%
8.2% 3 2.86
1.69
•
Joko Widodo
Prabowo Subianto 7
5 22
•
( 2) Guedes
2 4
Bloomberg 2019/4/18
( 1) GDP
( 2) BOVESPA
PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
4/22 3 2.55 -0.29
4/22 3 ( ) -3.80% 11.80%
4/23 2 FHFA ( ) 0.60% 0.60%
4/23 4 10 10
4/23 4 -7 -7.2
4/23 3 ( ) -3.00% 4.90%
4/24 4 IFO 99.9 99.6
4/24 1.75% 1.75%
4/25 1 24.00% 24.00%
4/25 3 ( ) 0.70% -1.60%
4/25 4 9 10
4/25 -- -0.10%
4/25 7 6.00% 6.00%
4/26 3 2.40% 2.30%
4/26 3 ( ) 0.10% 0.70%
4/26 7.75% 7.75%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 110.0 (4/18) 5 : 126.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.66 (4/18)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.60 (4/18)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 304.24 (4/18) 5 : 319.1
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.18 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 408.6 (4/18) 5 : 455.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.17 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 354.0 (4/18) 5 : 439.4
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.99 (4/18)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 359.0 (4/18) 5 : 372.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.46 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 498.0 (4/18) 5 : 507.7
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.02 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 339.25 (4/18) 5 : 341.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.70 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 320.17 (4/18) 5 : 332.8
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.66 (4/18)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 517.0 (4/18) 5 : 564.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.01 (4/18)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 253.05 (4/18) 5 : 255.2
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.0 (4/18) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.5 (4/18) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.4 (4/18) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.2 (4/18) 5 : 17.4
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.8 (4/18) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.9 (4/18) 5 : 12.8
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.0 (4/18) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.3 (4/18) 5 : 12.8
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.09 (4/18) 5 : 14.94
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 49.2 (4/18) 5 : 64.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.1 (4/18) 5 : 70.4
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 325.7 (4/18) 5 : 366.6
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18
5 1
35.8% 0.3%
29.4% 0.1%
5 1
21.7% 0.2%
31.5% 0.1%
5 1
28.8% 0.2%
30.4% 0.1%
5 1
19.9% -0.1%
26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108085
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20190419

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 2.5596% 3 10 • 0.21% 0.13% 408.6 • 0.06% 0.08% 0.04% 0.30% 0.32% Bloomberg 2019/4/18 0.22 0.03 0.54 0.81 0.57 0.93 0.98 0.94 1.37 1.10 0.74 0.94 1.67 1.12 1.68 -0.44 -0.32 -0.18 -0.13 -0.08 -0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.21 0.30 0.48 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • (Medicare for All) S&P 500 0.58% • 600 0.92% • 225 1.74% NTT Docomo • GDP 1.89% 13 • 10 6 0.31% Bloomberg 2019/4/18 -4.12 -5.42 1.07 2.18 2.01 2.54 1.24 2.73 2.19 0.80 4.03 2.74 4.27 2.34 4.97 4.85 -1.84 -0.19 0.31 0.46 0.57 0.58 0.59 0.68 0.92 1.30 1.37 1.38 1.42 1.74 1.89 2.41 MSCI BOVESPA MSCI MSCI 500 MSCI MSCI 600 H RTS SENSEX Nikkei 225 DAX % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC+ • 4 12 139.6 ( ) 230 117.4 Bloomberg EIA 2019/4/18 -2.74 -0.50 -2.70 -2.79 -2.14 -3.50 1.23 -2.79 2.71 8.31 0.79 6.56 -3.53 -3.42 -2.34 -1.65 -1.29 -0.42 -0.10 0.38 0.43 0.66 1.06 1.61 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 11 19 25 11 6 • 80 48 14 12 15 14 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/4/17
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • 2016 WTO WTO 5 ( 1) • 2 1 511 494 ( 2) 301 Trump • • Trump Mueller Trump Trump Bloomberg 2019/4/18 ( 1) 500 ( 2)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • Natural Resource Partners • S&P 500 15% 78% ( 2) 48% 1 S&P 500 -1.7% • 3 2 1.6% 1% 2 0.2% Bloomberg 2019/4/18 ( 2) ( ) ( 1)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 4 (PMI) 47.8( 1) 47.5 3 PMI 50 PMI 51.3 • 200 • GDP 1% 0.5% 2018 1.4% • 4 PMI 49.2 49.5( 2) 3 50 3 Bloomberg 2019/4/18 ( 1) PMI ( 2) PMI
  • 11. PAGE 10 • GDP 6.4%( 1) 6.3% 3 • 3 M2 8.6% 8.2% 3 2.86 1.69 • Joko Widodo Prabowo Subianto 7 5 22 • ( 2) Guedes 2 4 Bloomberg 2019/4/18 ( 1) GDP ( 2) BOVESPA
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg / / 4/22 3 2.55 -0.29 4/22 3 ( ) -3.80% 11.80% 4/23 2 FHFA ( ) 0.60% 0.60% 4/23 4 10 10 4/23 4 -7 -7.2 4/23 3 ( ) -3.00% 4.90% 4/24 4 IFO 99.9 99.6 4/24 1.75% 1.75% 4/25 1 24.00% 24.00% 4/25 3 ( ) 0.70% -1.60% 4/25 4 9 10 4/25 -- -0.10% 4/25 7 6.00% 6.00% 4/26 3 2.40% 2.30% 4/26 3 ( ) 0.10% 0.70% 4/26 7.75% 7.75%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 110.0 (4/18) 5 : 126.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.66 (4/18) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.60 (4/18) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 304.24 (4/18) 5 : 319.1
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.18 (4/18) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 408.6 (4/18) 5 : 455.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.17 (4/18) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 354.0 (4/18) 5 : 439.4 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.99 (4/18) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 359.0 (4/18) 5 : 372.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.46 (4/18) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 498.0 (4/18) 5 : 507.7
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.02 (4/18) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 339.25 (4/18) 5 : 341.4 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.70 (4/18) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 320.17 (4/18) 5 : 332.8
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.66 (4/18) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 517.0 (4/18) 5 : 564.3 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.01 (4/18) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 253.05 (4/18) 5 : 255.2
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 16.0 (4/18) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 17.5 (4/18) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 14.4 (4/18) 5 : 15.3 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 15.2 (4/18) 5 : 17.4
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.8 (4/18) 5 : 12.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.9 (4/18) 5 : 12.8 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 19.0 (4/18) 5 : 18.4 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.3 (4/18) 5 : 12.8
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.09 (4/18) 5 : 14.94 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 49.2 (4/18) 5 : 64.6 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 63.1 (4/18) 5 : 70.4 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 325.7 (4/18) 5 : 366.6
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/4/18 '15/4/18 '16/4/18 '17/4/18 '18/4/18 '19/4/18 5 1 35.8% 0.3% 29.4% 0.1% 5 1 21.7% 0.2% 31.5% 0.1% 5 1 28.8% 0.2% 30.4% 0.1% 5 1 19.9% -0.1% 26.5% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108085 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898