SlideShare a Scribd company logo
31 July
2020
PAGE 2
•
10
0.5462%
10 -0.542%
•
0.72%
491 0.56%
570
• 0.15%
0.36%
0.57%
0.06%
1.72
3.03
3.16
3.36
2.51
2.23
1.07
1.12
2.17
2.13
2.37
2.05
4.34
2.06
1.97
4.50
-0.17
0.06
0.06
0.15
0.19
0.21
0.33
0.34
0.36
0.47
0.49
0.52
0.56
0.57
0.59
0.72
ESG ( )
-
-
% %
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 0.33%
•
600 3.78%
DAX 5.52%
•
225
1.81%
300 1.19%
• 2
0.80%
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
0.56
-0.23
0.39
1.63
3.47
0.23
11.82
8.08
5.14
4.71
8.74
9.29
4.09
12.61
9.48
10.47
-5.52
-3.78
-2.64
-2.32
-2.21
-1.81
-1.19
-1.06
-0.10
0.33
0.41
0.61
0.80
1.66
2.50
2.65
DAX
600
MSCI
RTS
H
Nikkei 225
300
SENSEX
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
BAML
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %
PAGE 4
•
2019 12
• 7 24 EIA
1,060 ( ) 5.26
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
-6.72
1.66
6.91
0.85
4.35
3.48
8.06
7.19
6.21
3.02
11.67
9.86
-3.73
-2.80
-1.74
-1.60
-0.85
-0.11
0.00
0.27
1.12
1.85
2.10
3.67
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 19 48
5 19
10
• 172
126 18
2
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/29
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
• (FED)7
0% 0.25%( 1)
1,200 MBS FED
FED
• GDP 2 GDP
32.9%( 2)
34.6%
2 GDP
•
9 3
(PMCCF SMCCF)
(TALF) (PPP)
(MSLP) 7
1
( 2) GDP( )
( 1)
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
( 1)
( 2)
•
( 1)
•
42
SeaWorld Entertainment
Graham Packaging 4
• 57% S&P 500
2 8
Facebook Amazon Alphabet Apple
Paypal GE Pfizer Qualcomm AMD
Boeing 3M LVMH NXP
• 7 Markit PMI
50 51.3( 2)
5
7 PMI 49.6
7 25
143
PAGE 9
• PMI 7
(PMI) 48.5 54.8( 1) 2018
6
PMI 50 56.7
19 30
• GDP 2 GDP
10.1% 1970
6
1,300
• 6
13.9% 8%
6
• 6
1.2%( 2) 4
A
GDP 259%
GDP 14.3%
( 1) PMI
( 2) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
PAGE 10
( 1) ( )
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/7/30
•
6
11.5%( 1) 5
5.5 2
• GDP
A+
2020
GDP 1.2% 2.7%
•
8.5% 12.5%
20 Das
14.7%
•
4.25% ( 2) 4
4.5%~5.5% 2021 3.5%~4.5%
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/7/31
/ /
8/3 7 ISM 53.5 52.6
8/3 1 GDP ( ) -2.8% -2.2%
8/3 7 PMI 51.2 51.2
8/3 7 Markit PMI - 47.2
8/3 7 Markit PMI - 51.6
8/4 6 ( ) - 7.3%
8/4 6 4.5% 8.0%
8/4 6 ( ) - -21.9%
8/5 7 ADP 1,515k 2,369k
8/5 7 ISM 55.1 57.1
8/5 6 ( ) 0.9% -5.1%
8/5 Selic 2.00% 2.25%
8/6 RBI 3.75% 4.00%
8/7 7 1,537k 4,800k
8/7 7 10.4% 11.1%
8/7 6 ( ) -2.7% -2.1%
8/7 6 ( ) 84.8 78.4
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.92 (7/30)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 133 (7/30) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.68 (7/30)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 427 (7/30) 5 : 358
PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.37 (7/30)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.06 (7/30)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 570 (7/30) 5 : 482
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 491 (7/30) 5 : 453
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.61 (7/30)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.49 (7/30)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 495 (7/30) 5 : 396
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 726 (7/30) 5 : 493
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.13 (7/30)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.62 (7/30)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 459 (7/30) 5 : 368
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 394 (7/30) 5 : 322
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.92 (7/30)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.75 (7/30)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 744 (7/30) 5 : 582
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 275 (7/30) 5 : 217
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.4 (7/30) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.0 (7/30) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.8 (7/30) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.0 (7/30) 5 : 16.2
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.1 (7/30) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.0 (7/30) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.3 (7/30) 5 : 17.4
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 19.0 (7/30) 5 : 12.1
/ /
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 24.76 (7/30) 5 : 17.10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 40.7 (7/30) 5 : 63.5
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.9 (7/30) 5 : 64.9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 433 (7/30) 5 : 384
/ /
PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30
5 1
34.1% 0.8%
28.2% 0.1%
5 1
32.0% 0.8%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
33.1% 0.8%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
30.3% 0.3%
25.5% 0.1%
PAGE 22
TR109208
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報20200731

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 0.5462% 10 -0.542% • 0.72% 491 0.56% 570 • 0.15% 0.36% 0.57% 0.06% 1.72 3.03 3.16 3.36 2.51 2.23 1.07 1.12 2.17 2.13 2.37 2.05 4.34 2.06 1.97 4.50 -0.17 0.06 0.06 0.15 0.19 0.21 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.47 0.49 0.52 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.72 ESG ( ) - - % % Bloomberg 2020/7/30
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • S&P 500 0.33% • 600 3.78% DAX 5.52% • 225 1.81% 300 1.19% • 2 0.80% Bloomberg 2020/7/30 0.56 -0.23 0.39 1.63 3.47 0.23 11.82 8.08 5.14 4.71 8.74 9.29 4.09 12.61 9.48 10.47 -5.52 -3.78 -2.64 -2.32 -2.21 -1.81 -1.19 -1.06 -0.10 0.33 0.41 0.61 0.80 1.66 2.50 2.65 DAX 600 MSCI RTS H Nikkei 225 300 SENSEX MSCI S&P 500 MSCI MSCI BAML MSCI BOVESPA % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • 2019 12 • 7 24 EIA 1,060 ( ) 5.26 Bloomberg 2020/7/30 -6.72 1.66 6.91 0.85 4.35 3.48 8.06 7.19 6.21 3.02 11.67 9.86 -3.73 -2.80 -1.74 -1.60 -0.85 -0.11 0.00 0.27 1.12 1.85 2.10 3.67 LME CRB LME LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 19 48 5 19 10 • 172 126 18 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/29 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • (FED)7 0% 0.25%( 1) 1,200 MBS FED FED • GDP 2 GDP 32.9%( 2) 34.6% 2 GDP • 9 3 (PMCCF SMCCF) (TALF) (PPP) (MSLP) 7 1 ( 2) GDP( ) ( 1) Bloomberg 2020/7/30
  • 9. PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/7/30 ( 1) ( 2) • ( 1) • 42 SeaWorld Entertainment Graham Packaging 4 • 57% S&P 500 2 8 Facebook Amazon Alphabet Apple Paypal GE Pfizer Qualcomm AMD Boeing 3M LVMH NXP • 7 Markit PMI 50 51.3( 2) 5 7 PMI 49.6 7 25 143
  • 10. PAGE 9 • PMI 7 (PMI) 48.5 54.8( 1) 2018 6 PMI 50 56.7 19 30 • GDP 2 GDP 10.1% 1970 6 1,300 • 6 13.9% 8% 6 • 6 1.2%( 2) 4 A GDP 259% GDP 14.3% ( 1) PMI ( 2) (%) Bloomberg 2020/7/30
  • 11. PAGE 10 ( 1) ( ) ( 2) Bloomberg 2020/7/30 • 6 11.5%( 1) 5 5.5 2 • GDP A+ 2020 GDP 1.2% 2.7% • 8.5% 12.5% 20 Das 14.7% • 4.25% ( 2) 4 4.5%~5.5% 2021 3.5%~4.5%
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/7/31 / / 8/3 7 ISM 53.5 52.6 8/3 1 GDP ( ) -2.8% -2.2% 8/3 7 PMI 51.2 51.2 8/3 7 Markit PMI - 47.2 8/3 7 Markit PMI - 51.6 8/4 6 ( ) - 7.3% 8/4 6 4.5% 8.0% 8/4 6 ( ) - -21.9% 8/5 7 ADP 1,515k 2,369k 8/5 7 ISM 55.1 57.1 8/5 6 ( ) 0.9% -5.1% 8/5 Selic 2.00% 2.25% 8/6 RBI 3.75% 4.00% 8/7 7 1,537k 4,800k 8/7 7 10.4% 11.1% 8/7 6 ( ) -2.7% -2.1% 8/7 6 ( ) 84.8 78.4
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 1.92 (7/30) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 133 (7/30) 5 : 131 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.68 (7/30) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 427 (7/30) 5 : 358
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.37 (7/30) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.06 (7/30) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 570 (7/30) 5 : 482 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 491 (7/30) 5 : 453
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.61 (7/30) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.49 (7/30) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 495 (7/30) 5 : 396 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 726 (7/30) 5 : 493
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.13 (7/30) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.62 (7/30) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 459 (7/30) 5 : 368 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 394 (7/30) 5 : 322
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.92 (7/30) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.75 (7/30) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 744 (7/30) 5 : 582 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 275 (7/30) 5 : 217
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 / / 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.4 (7/30) 5 : 16.0 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 22.0 (7/30) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.8 (7/30) 5 : 14.6 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 20.0 (7/30) 5 : 16.2
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 15.1 (7/30) 5 : 11.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.0 (7/30) 5 : 12.0 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.3 (7/30) 5 : 17.4 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 19.0 (7/30) 5 : 12.1 / /
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 24.76 (7/30) 5 : 17.10 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 40.7 (7/30) 5 : 63.5 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.9 (7/30) 5 : 64.9 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 433 (7/30) 5 : 384 / /
  • 22. PAGE 21 Bloomberg * 50% +50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/7/30 '16/7/30 '17/7/30 '18/7/30 '19/7/30 '20/7/30 5 1 34.1% 0.8% 28.2% 0.1% 5 1 32.0% 0.8% 30.7% 0.1% 5 1 33.1% 0.8% 29.5% 0.1% 5 1 30.3% 0.3% 25.5% 0.1%
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109208 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • / • • • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898