This document provides an economic and market outlook for 2019. It discusses trends in major economies and asset classes in 2018 and forecasts for 2019. Key points include: - Global economic growth is expected to moderate slightly in 2019 compared to 2018, with US growth remaining solid while China's economy continues transitioning. - Interest rates are projected to continue rising gradually in the US and other developed markets. Bond yields may increase modestly from current levels. - Risks include ongoing trade tensions and a potential escalation of the US-China trade war. However, a resolution could provide upside potential for markets. - Equity markets may see modest gains in 2019 but also volatility, depending on trade developments and other geopolitical factors

1. Dec
2018
2019 1
PineBridge Investments, Taiwan

2. I.
II. -
III. - 2019
IV. -
V. –
VI.

3. I.

4. PAGE 3
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-2.5
-12.9
17.1
-8.1
6.3
-7.1
-11.4
-21.3
-14.4
-14.1
-8.3
-8.1
-3.5
3.2
-4.3
3.1
2.3
16.7
5.5
-6.3
-10.6
-5.0
-4.9
-8.2
-5.8
-3.9
-6.5
-4.6
-4.9
-6.1
3 % %
-4.6
-1.3
-2.1
-7.4
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-5.5
-3.1
0.1
-3.3
-0.4
-1.8
-1.3
-1.9
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3.4
1.5
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-2.8
-1.9
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0.2
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-
-
3 % %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-10.8
-14.0
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-6.4
-3.8
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-6.4
-5.7
-0.7
-5.7
5.6
5.9
0.5
1.5
4.8
-1.8
-0.5
3.1
1.7
-1.6
-2.2
-2.4
2.2
3 % %
-14.5
-6.2
-12.2
-15.7
-6.3
3.7
1.8
-24.2
-27.0
-5.8
LME
CRB
3 % %

6. II.

7. PAGE 6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
( )
IMF 2018/10
(%) 2017 2018(f) 2019(f) 2020(f)
3.74 3.73(↓) 3.65(↓) 3.66(↑)
2.34 2.36(↑) 2.13(↓) 1.72(↓)
4.72 4.68(↓) 4.68(-) 4.93(↑)
• 2018
• 2018
(%)

8. PAGE 7
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
45
50
55
60
65
2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2018 3 2018/10
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
•
2019 2018 2019 2.4%
•
(%)

9. PAGE 8
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
• Trump
• 2019 2
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 2018/11
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2018/7 2018/8 2018/9 2018/10 2018/11

10. PAGE 9
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
45
50
55
60
65
2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2018 3 2018/11 2018/10
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
• 50
• 2019 1.6%
(%)

11. PAGE 10
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
• 2019 1 3
• Draghi 2019 10 6
Draghi
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 2018/11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2018/7 2018/8 2018/9 2018/10 2018/11

12. PAGE 11
47
50
53
56
2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
•
• 2019
2014 2019 1.3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2018 3 ( ) 2018/11 ( ) 2018/10
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
(%)

13. PAGE 12
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
•
• 2019 10 0% 0.1%
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 2018/11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2018/9 2018/10 2018/11

14. PAGE 13
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
48
50
52
54
2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2018 3 2018/10
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
•
• 2018
2019 2019
(%)

15. III.
2019

16. PAGE 15
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
•
2019
• 2019 10 3.25%( 3%~3.5%)
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 2018/11
10
2

17. PAGE 16
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
• 2018 2019 2019
10 0.75%( 0.5%~1%) 2019 1%( 0.75%~1.25%)
•
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 2018/11
10
2

18. PAGE 17
• 2019
• 5 4%
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
2.0 %
2.5 %
3.0 %
3.5 %
4.0 %
4.5 %
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
50 bp
70 bp
90 bp
110 bp
130 bp
150 bp
170 bp
190 bp
210 bp
230 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

19. PAGE 18
• 2019
2019
• ( ) (CCC )
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/10/31
200 bp
300 bp
400 bp
500 bp
600 bp
700 bp
800 bp
900 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

20. PAGE 19
• 2018 (2018 11 400 )
• ( 2019 )
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/10/31
BB2
BB1
BBB3
BBB2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
200 bp
250 bp
300 bp
350 bp
400 bp
450 bp
500 bp
550 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

21. PAGE 20
• (
) 2019
• 2019 2018
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/10/31
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
200 bp
250 bp
300 bp
350 bp
400 bp
450 bp
500 bp
550 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

22. PAGE 21
•
2019
•
Bloomberg 2018/11/30 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/10/31
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
150 bp
170 bp
190 bp
210 bp
230 bp
250 bp
270 bp
290 bp
310 bp
330 bp
350 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

23. IV.

24. PAGE 23
•
S&P 500 5
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
( )

25. PAGE 24
•
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
( )

26. PAGE 25
•
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
( )

27. PAGE 26
• 4 7%
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
( )

28. PAGE 27
• Bolsonaro
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
( )

29. PAGE 28
•
6.1% 2013 5.63%
Bloomberg 2018/11/30
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(
)
(%)

30. V.

31. PAGE 30 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2018/11/13
‘11/6
‘12/1
‘13/1
‘14/1
‘15/1
‘16/1
‘17/1
‘18/1
( )
「貿易戰」依然是基金
經理人最擔心的風險
美銀美林基金經理人調查最大尾端風險（Tail Risk）

32. PAGE 31
Bloomberg 2018/12/18
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

33. VI.

34. PAGE 33
2019
2018
2019
2019
2018/11

35. PAGE 34
2018/11

37. PAGE 36
2018/11
●
●
●
● A
200%
1.8 *
● A
1 3
**
●
●

38. PAGE 37
Citi Research USTR NBS 2018/11
7 6 8 23 9 24
2019
( )
25% 10% 15%
340 160 2000
173 81 407 610
-6.2% -2.9% -14.6% -22.0%
-0.8% -0.4% -1.8% -2.7%
-0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -0.5%

39. PAGE 38
• 2019
Bloomberg IMF 2018/11
2.3 2.4
2.1
6
3.8
2
1.3 1.2
2.2
6.9
6.6
6.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2017 2018f 2019f
(%) (%)
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

40. PAGE 39
•
•
Bloomberg 2018/11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2015 2016 2017 2018
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2012

41. PAGE 40
A
• 2019
Bloomberg 2018/11
(%)
11.2
(2.4)
9.7
5.1
3.7
(6.6)
16.1
11.9
14.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f

42. PAGE 41
A
• A A
• A
A
( )Bloomberg 2018/11/23 ( )Wind 2018/10/12
12.86%
2.71%
-1.54%
-3.54%
-4.56%
-6.88%
-9.04%
-13.35%
-22.01%-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
BOVESPA
SENSEX
500
RTS
225
CAC40
600
DAX
300
54.1
7.3
44.9
68.7
89.4 90.5
25.0
19.3
6.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

43. PAGE 42
• 2000 A 4 13~16 A 12
A 200% 1.8 *
*
Bloomberg 2018/11/23
16.45
12.91
10.50
13.51
11.99
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2005/6/3 2008/11/6 2013/6/27 2016/1/28

44. PAGE 43
101%
21%
-3%
4%
-15% -15%
-10%
62%
51%
32%
-2%
-24%
-19%
-23%
-50%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
<10 10-12 12-14 14-16 16-18 18-20 >20
1 3
2010/01/01~2018/10/31
Bloomberg 2018/10/31
( ) ( )
100%
85%
38%
56%
7%
30%
26%
100% 100%
82%
42%
2% 0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<10 10-12 12-14 14-16 16-18 18-20 >20
1 3
A
A
100%
85%
38%
56%
7%
30%
26%
100% 100%
82%
42%
2% 0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<10 10-12 12-14 14-16 16-18 18-20 >20
1 3

45. PAGE 44
A
Bloomberg 2018/11
2000
( )
2005/6/3 1,013.64 6,092.06 501.01 2.37
2008/11/6 1,717.72 3,471.44 102.10 0.74
2013/6/27 1,950.01 5,166.35 164.94 1.96
2016/1/28 2,655.66 3,559.47 34.03 1.99
平均 - - 200.52 1.77

46. PAGE 45
2005
A
Bloomberg 2018/11
• 2005 4
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
2005/01 2006/01 2007/01
2005 1
2‰ 1‰
2005 4
2005 2 /
2005
( )
501%
(2.37 )
( )

47. PAGE 46
2008
A
Bloomberg 2018/11
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2008/04 2008/10 2009/04
2008 9 11
-4
-3
2008 4
3‰ 1‰
2008 9
-
-
-
2008 11
• 2008 V
2008 V
( )
102%
(0.74 )
( )

48. PAGE 47
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2012/11 2013/05 2013/11 2014/05 2014/11 2015/05
2013
A
Bloomberg 2018/11
2012 11
2014 9
(MLF)
2014 4 6
2
2014 3
20% 30%
• 2013 2014 2 2015
2013
( )
2013 7
2014 11
165%
(1.96 )
( )

49. PAGE 48
2016
A
Bloomberg 2018/11
• 2015 A 2
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
2015/06 2015/12 2016/06 2016/12 2017/06 2017/12
2015 7
-
-
-
2016 1
-
-
2015 6 10
-4
-4
2016
( )
34%
(1.99 )
( )

50. PAGE 49
A
Bloomberg 2018/11/23
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
2018/1 2018/3 2018/5 2018/7 2018/9 2018/11
7/23
7/31
10/7 /
4 /
10/22
1,500
8/14
10
1.35
10/19
11/6
• 7
10/18
?
( )

51. PAGE 50
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