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17 May
2019
PAGE 2
• Trump
Trump
10
2.3944%
10
• 0.14%
CCC
0.39% 0.14%
443
•
0.25%
0.20% 0.65%
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
0.19
-0.62
-0.33
-0.95
0.10
0.64
0.97
0.72
0.84
0.27
1.06
0.93
1.32
1.12
-1.62
-0.17
-0.14
-0.14
-0.13
-0.06
0.01
0.14
0.14
0.20
0.25
0.27
0.32
0.34
0.50
0.65
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
Trump
S&P 500
0.20%
600 1.85%
•
225
1.58%
•
300 4.01%
•
BOVESPA 5.05%
• 10
0.52% 10.42%
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
-4.57
-7.76
-4.15
-8.04
-7.54
-5.21
-4.79
-8.54
-2.40
-1.06
0.73
-4.31
-1.63
0.47
1.73
-8.37
-5.05
-3.88
-2.41
-1.82
-1.68
-1.58
-0.44
-0.31
0.09
0.20
0.52
1.64
1.85
2.29
2.81
4.01
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
H
MSCI
500
MSCI
600
RTS
DAX
300
% %
PAGE 4
•
• 5 10
543.1 ( ) 120
112.3
Bloomberg EIA 2019/5/16
-14.29
-6.08
0.77
-6.16
-2.65
-1.84
1.25
-5.43
-6.00
0.24
5.57
4.94
-4.88
-0.03
0.21
1.03
1.85
1.90
3.17
3.32
3.38
3.39
7.29
8.73
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 195 81
45 18
16
• 51 78
17 35
29
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/5/15
PAGE 7
• 5 10
2,000 10%
25% Trump
G20
Mnuchin
• 5 18
25%
6
• Trump
Trump
• 4 (CPI)
2.0% CPI 2.1%
Powell
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 1) S&P 500
( 2)
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Transocean 4
• 4
3 0.2%( 2)
0.2%
• FCA Moody’s
Fiat Chrysler(FCA)
Ba3 Ba2
Moody‘s FCA
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 2)
( 1)
PAGE 9
• GDP
1.2%
GDP 0% 0.4%
GDP 2 0.2%
• May
May
May
( 1)
• Matteo Salvini
GDP 3%
GDP 140%
• 3
0.9 99.6( 2) 2
6
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 10
• 4
5.4%( 1)
4 7.2%
1 4 6.1%
•
6 1
600
10% 25%
•
8.25 ( 2)
4%
• Guedes
2019 2.2% 1.5%
Bloomberg 2019/5/16
( 1) )
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
5/20 1 GDP ( ) -0.1% 0.5%
5/21 4 5.34m 5.21m
5/21 5 -7.6 -7.9
5/22 3 ( ) 0.0% 1.8%
5/22 4 CPI( ) 2.2% 1.9%
5/23 4 677k 692k
5/23 5 Markit ( ) 53.0 52.6
5/23 5 - -
5/23 5 Markit ( ) 48.2 47.9
5/23 1 GDP ( ) 0.6% 0.6%
5/23 5 IFO 99.2 99.2
5/23 5 Markit ( ) 44.8 44.4
5/23 5 ( ) - 50.2
5/23 SARB 6.75% 6.75%
5/24 4 -2.0% 2.6%
5/24 3 ( ) -0.2% -0.2%
5/24 4 ( ) 0.9% 0.5%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 117.0 (5/16) 5 : 126.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.58 (5/16)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.55 (5/16)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 315.16 (5/16) 5 : 319.1
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.39 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 443.0 (5/16) 5 : 456.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.37 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 392.0 (5/16) 5 : 439.8
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.27 (5/16)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 399.0 (5/16) 5 : 373.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.54 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 525.1 (5/16) 5 : 507.7
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.04 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 357.18 (5/16) 5 : 342.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.64 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 332.66 (5/16) 5 : 333.1
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.77 (5/16)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 545.0 (5/16) 5 : 563.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.91 (5/16)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 261.54 (5/16) 5 : 255.2
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.8 (5/16) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.3 (5/16) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.2 (5/16) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.0 (5/16) 5 : 17.3
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.2 (5/16) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.8 (5/16) 5 : 12.9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 18.2 (5/16) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 10.9 (5/16) 5 : 12.8
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.29 (5/16) 5 : 14.98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 57.0 (5/16) 5 : 64.6
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.6 (5/16) 5 : 70.0
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 348.0 (5/16) 5 : 366.5
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16
5 1
34.3% 0.5%
29.4% 0.1%
5 1
20.3% -0.2%
31.5% 0.1%
5 1
27.3% 0.2%
30.5% 0.1%
5 1
18.1% 0.1%
26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108103
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20190517

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • Trump Trump 10 2.3944% 10 • 0.14% CCC 0.39% 0.14% 443 • 0.25% 0.20% 0.65% Bloomberg 2019/5/16 0.19 -0.62 -0.33 -0.95 0.10 0.64 0.97 0.72 0.84 0.27 1.06 0.93 1.32 1.12 -1.62 -0.17 -0.14 -0.14 -0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.14 0.14 0.20 0.25 0.27 0.32 0.34 0.50 0.65 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • Trump S&P 500 0.20% 600 1.85% • 225 1.58% • 300 4.01% • BOVESPA 5.05% • 10 0.52% 10.42% Bloomberg 2019/5/16 -4.57 -7.76 -4.15 -8.04 -7.54 -5.21 -4.79 -8.54 -2.40 -1.06 0.73 -4.31 -1.63 0.47 1.73 -8.37 -5.05 -3.88 -2.41 -1.82 -1.68 -1.58 -0.44 -0.31 0.09 0.20 0.52 1.64 1.85 2.29 2.81 4.01 BOVESPA MSCI MSCI MSCI Nikkei 225 SENSEX H MSCI 500 MSCI 600 RTS DAX 300 % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • • 5 10 543.1 ( ) 120 112.3 Bloomberg EIA 2019/5/16 -14.29 -6.08 0.77 -6.16 -2.65 -1.84 1.25 -5.43 -6.00 0.24 5.57 4.94 -4.88 -0.03 0.21 1.03 1.85 1.90 3.17 3.32 3.38 3.39 7.29 8.73 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 195 81 45 18 16 • 51 78 17 35 29 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/5/15
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • 5 10 2,000 10% 25% Trump G20 Mnuchin • 5 18 25% 6 • Trump Trump • 4 (CPI) 2.0% CPI 2.1% Powell Bloomberg 2019/5/16 ( 1) S&P 500 ( 2)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • Transocean 4 • 4 3 0.2%( 2) 0.2% • FCA Moody’s Fiat Chrysler(FCA) Ba3 Ba2 Moody‘s FCA Bloomberg 2019/5/16 ( 2) ( 1)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • GDP 1.2% GDP 0% 0.4% GDP 2 0.2% • May May May ( 1) • Matteo Salvini GDP 3% GDP 140% • 3 0.9 99.6( 2) 2 6 Bloomberg 2019/5/16 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 11. PAGE 10 • 4 5.4%( 1) 4 7.2% 1 4 6.1% • 6 1 600 10% 25% • 8.25 ( 2) 4% • Guedes 2019 2.2% 1.5% Bloomberg 2019/5/16 ( 1) ) ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg / / 5/20 1 GDP ( ) -0.1% 0.5% 5/21 4 5.34m 5.21m 5/21 5 -7.6 -7.9 5/22 3 ( ) 0.0% 1.8% 5/22 4 CPI( ) 2.2% 1.9% 5/23 4 677k 692k 5/23 5 Markit ( ) 53.0 52.6 5/23 5 - - 5/23 5 Markit ( ) 48.2 47.9 5/23 1 GDP ( ) 0.6% 0.6% 5/23 5 IFO 99.2 99.2 5/23 5 Markit ( ) 44.8 44.4 5/23 5 ( ) - 50.2 5/23 SARB 6.75% 6.75% 5/24 4 -2.0% 2.6% 5/24 3 ( ) -0.2% -0.2% 5/24 4 ( ) 0.9% 0.5%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 117.0 (5/16) 5 : 126.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.58 (5/16) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.55 (5/16) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 315.16 (5/16) 5 : 319.1
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.39 (5/16) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 443.0 (5/16) 5 : 456.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.37 (5/16) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 392.0 (5/16) 5 : 439.8 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.27 (5/16) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 399.0 (5/16) 5 : 373.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.54 (5/16) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 525.1 (5/16) 5 : 507.7
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.04 (5/16) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 357.18 (5/16) 5 : 342.4 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.64 (5/16) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 332.66 (5/16) 5 : 333.1
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.77 (5/16) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 545.0 (5/16) 5 : 563.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.91 (5/16) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 261.54 (5/16) 5 : 255.2
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 15.8 (5/16) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 17.3 (5/16) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 14.2 (5/16) 5 : 15.3 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 15.0 (5/16) 5 : 17.3
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.2 (5/16) 5 : 12.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.8 (5/16) 5 : 12.9 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 18.2 (5/16) 5 : 18.5 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 10.9 (5/16) 5 : 12.8
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 15.29 (5/16) 5 : 14.98 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 57.0 (5/16) 5 : 64.6 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 61.6 (5/16) 5 : 70.0 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 348.0 (5/16) 5 : 366.5
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/5/16 '15/5/16 '16/5/16 '17/5/16 '18/5/16 '19/5/16 5 1 34.3% 0.5% 29.4% 0.1% 5 1 20.3% -0.2% 31.5% 0.1% 5 1 27.3% 0.2% 30.5% 0.1% 5 1 18.1% 0.1% 26.5% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
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