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12 June
2020
PAGE 2
•
V
10
0.6690%
10 -0.414%
•
0.62% 620
0.08% 658
•
Lopez Obrador
0.59%
0.49%
Bloomberg 2020/6/11
5.20
7.56
4.65
6.85
6.33
0.41
2.83
3.59
3.45
3.73
4.63
5.38
7.75
0.47
5.60
1.33
-0.62
-0.49
-0.17
-0.08
0.59
0.66
0.81
0.91
0.93
0.99
1.00
1.02
1.07
1.17
1.33
1.35
ESG ( )
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
GDP 5.2%
• 5
S&P 500 3.54%
•
600 3.60%
DAX 3.70%
•
225 0.98%
300 0.34%
•
0.96%
Bloomberg 2020/6/11
10.58
3.94
2.45
5.03
8.96
6.26
13.05
10.21
0.40
-0.46
0.90
8.48
24.91
6.45
19.76
4.74
-3.70
-3.60
-3.54
-2.48
-1.53
-1.30
-1.15
-0.98
-0.96
-0.23
0.34
0.48
0.51
0.66
0.91
1.25
DAX
600
S&P 500
MSCI
RTS
SENSEX
MSCI
Nikkei 225
BAML
H
300
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
BOVESPA
% %
PAGE 4
• OPEC+ 970
7
• 6 5
572 ( )
185
Bloomberg 2020/6/11
-3.48
30.10
50.54
-1.06
2.44
9.97
1.29
5.99
3.53
1.75
6.94
9.65
-4.68
-3.60
-2.86
-1.28
-0.92
-0.62
-0.20
0.03
0.23
0.80
1.97
4.18
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 138 115
24 8
45
• 246
186
65 22
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/6/10
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
• 6
(1) 0%
0.25% 2022
(2) -6.5%
PCE 0.8% 9.3%
(3)
800 400
(MBS)
7.22 ( 1)
• 5
250.9 ( 2) 4
833
5
16.3% 6 6
154
•
(Mnuchin)
Bloomberg 2020/6/11
( 1)
( 2) ( )
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
204
Sirius XM Radio
International Game Technology
• Fed
6,000 (Main
Street Business Lending Program)
Fed
•
(NFIB)5 94.4( 2)
2017
2
2018 8
Bloomberg 2020/6/11
( 1)
( 2) NFIB
PAGE 9
Bloomberg 2020/6/11
•
5,000
•
1,000
• GDP
6~7%
4
2 25.8% 1991
• 32
2
12
GDP 257%
( 1) ( )
( 2) 225
PAGE 10
( 1) (%)
( 2) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/6/11
• 5 (CPI)
2.4%( 1) 2.7% 4
CPI
(PPI) 3.7% -3.3%
2016 3
• 5
3.2 3
1.48
•
BBB-
•
5 (CPI)
1.9%( 2) 5 4%
2020 GDP
-6.48% GDP
8%
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/6/12
/ /
6/15 6 -24.1 -48.5
6/15 5 ( ) 4.8% 3.9%
6/15 5 ( ) -2.1% -7.5%
6/15 5 ( ) - -60.3%
6/16 5 ( ) 7.8% -16.4%
6/16 5 ( ) 2.7% -11.2%
6/16 6 ZEW - 46.0
6/16 4 ( ) - -1.2%
6/16 - -0.100%
6/17 5 CPI( ) 0.1% 0.3%
6/17-6/18 Selic 2.25% 3.00%
6/18 5 1.6% -4.4%
6/18 0.100% 0.100%
6/18 CBC - 1.125%
6/18 7 4.25% 4.50%
6/19 5 ( )CPI( ) -0.1% -0.2%
6/19 4.75% 5.50%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.27 (6/11)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 161.0 (6/11) 5 : 130.9
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.06 (6/11)
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 454.91 (6/11) 5 : 356.5
/ /
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.01 (6/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 658.2 (6/11) 5 : 478.3
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.84 (6/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 620.0 (6/11) 5 : 450.6
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.62 (6/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 534.0 (6/11) 5 : 392.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.06 (6/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 751.9 (6/11) 5 : 533.7
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.61 (6/11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 482.87 (6/11) 5 : 358.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.02 (6/11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 445.51 (6/11) 5 : 345.7
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.43 (6/11)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 791.0 (6/11) 5 : 579.1
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.15 (6/11)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 356.54 (6/11) 5 : 264.7
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 19.8 (6/11) 5 : 15.9
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.1 (6/11) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.6 (6/11) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 19.7 (6/11) 5 : 16.2
/ /
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.1 (6/11) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.9 (6/11) 5 : 12.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 17.8 (6/11) 5 : 17.3
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.4 (6/10) 5 : 12.0
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ /
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 40.79 (6/11) 5 : 16.69
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 56.5 (6/11) 5 : 64.4
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.3 (6/11) 5 : 65.4
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 505.0 (6/11) 5 : 380.5
PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11
5 1
30.2% -1.0%
28.3% 0.1%
5 1
25.0% -0.2%
30.8% 0.1%
5 1
27.6% -0.6%
29.6% 0.1%
5 1
24.9% 0.4%
25.7% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR109163
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200612

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • V 10 0.6690% 10 -0.414% • 0.62% 620 0.08% 658 • Lopez Obrador 0.59% 0.49% Bloomberg 2020/6/11 5.20 7.56 4.65 6.85 6.33 0.41 2.83 3.59 3.45 3.73 4.63 5.38 7.75 0.47 5.60 1.33 -0.62 -0.49 -0.17 -0.08 0.59 0.66 0.81 0.91 0.93 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.07 1.17 1.33 1.35 ESG ( ) - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • GDP 5.2% • 5 S&P 500 3.54% • 600 3.60% DAX 3.70% • 225 0.98% 300 0.34% • 0.96% Bloomberg 2020/6/11 10.58 3.94 2.45 5.03 8.96 6.26 13.05 10.21 0.40 -0.46 0.90 8.48 24.91 6.45 19.76 4.74 -3.70 -3.60 -3.54 -2.48 -1.53 -1.30 -1.15 -0.98 -0.96 -0.23 0.34 0.48 0.51 0.66 0.91 1.25 DAX 600 S&P 500 MSCI RTS SENSEX MSCI Nikkei 225 BAML H 300 MSCI MSCI MSCI BOVESPA % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC+ 970 7 • 6 5 572 ( ) 185 Bloomberg 2020/6/11 -3.48 30.10 50.54 -1.06 2.44 9.97 1.29 5.99 3.53 1.75 6.94 9.65 -4.68 -3.60 -2.86 -1.28 -0.92 -0.62 -0.20 0.03 0.23 0.80 1.97 4.18 LME LME CRB LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 138 115 24 8 45 • 246 186 65 22 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/6/10 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • 6 (1) 0% 0.25% 2022 (2) -6.5% PCE 0.8% 9.3% (3) 800 400 (MBS) 7.22 ( 1) • 5 250.9 ( 2) 4 833 5 16.3% 6 6 154 • (Mnuchin) Bloomberg 2020/6/11 ( 1) ( 2) ( )
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • 204 Sirius XM Radio International Game Technology • Fed 6,000 (Main Street Business Lending Program) Fed • (NFIB)5 94.4( 2) 2017 2 2018 8 Bloomberg 2020/6/11 ( 1) ( 2) NFIB
  • 10. PAGE 9 Bloomberg 2020/6/11 • 5,000 • 1,000 • GDP 6~7% 4 2 25.8% 1991 • 32 2 12 GDP 257% ( 1) ( ) ( 2) 225
  • 11. PAGE 10 ( 1) (%) ( 2) (%) Bloomberg 2020/6/11 • 5 (CPI) 2.4%( 1) 2.7% 4 CPI (PPI) 3.7% -3.3% 2016 3 • 5 3.2 3 1.48 • BBB- • 5 (CPI) 1.9%( 2) 5 4% 2020 GDP -6.48% GDP 8%
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/6/12 / / 6/15 6 -24.1 -48.5 6/15 5 ( ) 4.8% 3.9% 6/15 5 ( ) -2.1% -7.5% 6/15 5 ( ) - -60.3% 6/16 5 ( ) 7.8% -16.4% 6/16 5 ( ) 2.7% -11.2% 6/16 6 ZEW - 46.0 6/16 4 ( ) - -1.2% 6/16 - -0.100% 6/17 5 CPI( ) 0.1% 0.3% 6/17-6/18 Selic 2.25% 3.00% 6/18 5 1.6% -4.4% 6/18 0.100% 0.100% 6/18 CBC - 1.125% 6/18 7 4.25% 4.50% 6/19 5 ( )CPI( ) -0.1% -0.2% 6/19 4.75% 5.50%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 2.27 (6/11) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 161.0 (6/11) 5 : 130.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.06 (6/11) 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 454.91 (6/11) 5 : 356.5 / /
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.01 (6/11) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 658.2 (6/11) 5 : 478.3 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.84 (6/11) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 620.0 (6/11) 5 : 450.6
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.62 (6/11) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 534.0 (6/11) 5 : 392.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 8.06 (6/11) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 751.9 (6/11) 5 : 533.7
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.61 (6/11) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 482.87 (6/11) 5 : 358.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.02 (6/11) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 445.51 (6/11) 5 : 345.7
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 8.43 (6/11) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 791.0 (6/11) 5 : 579.1 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.15 (6/11) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 356.54 (6/11) 5 : 264.7
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 19.8 (6/11) 5 : 15.9 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.1 (6/11) 5 : 17.0 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.6 (6/11) 5 : 14.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 19.7 (6/11) 5 : 16.2 / /
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.1 (6/11) 5 : 11.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 11.9 (6/11) 5 : 12.1 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 17.8 (6/11) 5 : 17.3 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.4 (6/10) 5 : 12.0
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 40.79 (6/11) 5 : 16.69 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 56.5 (6/11) 5 : 64.4 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.3 (6/11) 5 : 65.4 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 505.0 (6/11) 5 : 380.5
  • 22. PAGE 21 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/6/11 '16/6/11 '17/6/11 '18/6/11 '19/6/11 '20/6/11 5 1 30.2% -1.0% 28.3% 0.1% 5 1 25.0% -0.2% 30.8% 0.1% 5 1 27.6% -0.6% 29.6% 0.1% 5 1 24.9% 0.4% 25.7% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109163 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • / • • • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898