Pinebridge_2019 Q2

1. March
2019
2

2. I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.

3. I.

4. PAGE 3
MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI
MSCI 300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI
-
- - -
- -
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
10.4
6.7
8.5
6.4
1.7
5.3
9.2
21.5
7.3
6.7
5.2
9.7
7.8
9.4
8.6
1.9
1.6
8.2
5.4
2.8
4.9
8.3
15.0
5.6
5.0
-3.0
7.3
7.5
4.2
4.4
3 % %
5.5
2.6
3.2
2.8
4.7
3.3
3.9
4.9
4.4
5.8
5.0
2.4
1.5
0.7
6.2
3.5
4.1
3.8
4.5
4.0
4.2
5.4
4.6
3.7
4.1
2.7
2.5
1.9
-
-
3 % %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
-0.5
4.3
-0.6
0.3
2.3
-1.0
1.0
-0.1
2.0
-1.4
-2.0
1.2
-1.9
0.1
1.9
1.0
2.3
0.1
0.6
-2.2
2.2
1.4
-1.2
0.8
3 % %
7.2
1.2
22.2
23.5
6.4
4.1
4.0
6.6
6.6
-1.9
LME
CRB
3 % %

6. II.

7. PAGE 6
3.8 3.7
3.5 3.6
2.4 2.3
2.0
1.7
4.7 4.6 4.5
4.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2017 2018 ( ) 2019 ( ) 2020 ( )
• IMF( )
•
IMF 2019/1
( %)
(IMF )

8. PAGE 7
40
45
50
55
60
65
2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 2019/1
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(GDP) (PMI)
(CPI)
GDP 2018 4 PMI 2019 2 CPI 2019 1 Bloomberg 2019/3/8
•
2.4%
•
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

9. PAGE 8
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
• 12
2.25%~2.5%
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
2019
2
2019
3
2019
4
(%) 2.5 2.5 2.5
(%) 2.6 2.7 2.8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2018/10 2018/11 2018/12 2019/1 2019/2 2019/3

10. PAGE 9
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
2016/3 2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9
(GDP) (PMI)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(CPI)
GDP 2018 4 PMI CPI 2019 2 2019 1 Bloomberg 2019/3/8
•
• 1.5%

11. PAGE 10
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
•
•
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
2019
2
2019
3
2019
4
(%) 0 0 0
(%) 0 0 0.05
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2019/1 2019/2 2019/3

12. PAGE 11
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
46
48
50
52
54
56
2016/3 2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9
(GDP) (PMI)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(CPI)
GDP 2018 4 PMI 2019 2 CPI 2019 1 Bloomberg 2019/3/8
•
• 2019 1.1%

13. PAGE 12
-0.15%
-0.10%
-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
•
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
2019
2
2019
3
2019
4
(%) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
(%) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2019/1 2019/2 2019/3

14. PAGE 13
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
2016/3 2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9
(GDP) (PMI)
(CPI)
GDP CPI 2018 4 PMI 2019 2 2018 3 Bloomberg 2019/3/8
•
•
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

15. III.

16. PAGE 15
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
•
• 10 3.00%
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
10
2
10
2019
2
2019
3
2019
4
(%) 2.91 2.99 3.03
2
2019
2
2019
3
2019
4
(%) 2.74 2.81 2.86

17. PAGE 16
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
•
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
10
2
10 2019
2
2019
3
2019
4
(%) 0.48 0.59 0.71
2 2019
2
2019
3
2019
4
(%) -0.45 -0.36 -0.23

18. PAGE 17
•
5
Bloomberg 2019/3/8
50 bp
70 bp
90 bp
110 bp
130 bp
150 bp
170 bp
190 bp
210 bp
230 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2.0 %
2.5 %
3.0 %
3.5 %
4.0 %
4.5 %
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

19. PAGE 18
•
• (CCC )
Bloomberg 2019/3/8 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/2/28
200 bp
300 bp
400 bp
500 bp
600 bp
700 bp
800 bp
900 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

20. PAGE 19
• 5 6%
• ( )
Bloomberg 2019/3/8 (EMBI)
200 bp
250 bp
300 bp
350 bp
400 bp
450 bp
500 bp
550 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

21. PAGE 20
•
•
Bloomberg 2019/3/8 (CEMBI) Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/2/28
200 bp
250 bp
300 bp
350 bp
400 bp
450 bp
500 bp
550 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

22. PAGE 21
•
Bloomberg 2019/3/8 (JACI) Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/2/28
150 bp
170 bp
190 bp
210 bp
230 bp
250 bp
270 bp
290 bp
310 bp
330 bp
350 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

23. IV.

24. PAGE 23
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
• 2018 2019 10%
16.7
Bloomberg 2019/2/28 500
( )
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

25. PAGE 24
• 2018 2019 2018 12
13.8
Bloomberg 2019/2/28 600
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
( )
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

26. PAGE 25
• 2018 3%
2019 9
11.7 2018
Bloomberg 2019/2/28 300
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
( )
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

27. PAGE 26
• 2018 2018 2019
Bloomberg 2019/2/28 MSCI
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
( )
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

28. PAGE 27
• Bolsonaro 2018 30% 2019
60%
Bloomberg 2019/2/28 BOVESPA
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
( )
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

29. PAGE 28
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
• 2018
5.7% 2014
100
Bloomberg 2019/2/28 ICE
5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
%

30. V.

31. PAGE 30 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/2/12
‘11/6
‘12/1
‘13/1
‘14/1
‘15/1
‘16/1
‘17/1
‘18/1
美銀美林基金經理人調查最大尾端風險（Tail Risk）
‘19/1

32. PAGE 31
Barclays 2019/3/8
2019 4
• (4/10)
• IMF (4/12~4/14)
• (4/25)
• (4/11~5/19)
2019 5
• FOMC (5/1)
• (5/2)
• (5/23~5/26)
2019 6
• (6/6)
• FOMC (6/19)
• (6/20)
• (6/20)
• OPEC (6/25~6/26)
• G20 (6/28~6/29)

33. VI.

34. PAGE 33
2019Q2
2019/3

35. PAGE 34
2019Q2
(↓)
2018 2019
10%
(↑)
2019
(↑) 2019
2018
2018 2019
2019
60%
(↑)
2014
2019/3

37. PAGE 36
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 2019/1 2019/7 2020/1 2020/7
2016 6
( 52% 48%)
2017 3
50
2018 11
2019 1
2019 3
2019 3
3 29
2020 12
( )
→ →
BBC 2019/3/12
May (
)

38. PAGE 37
• 3 May
•
•
• May
•
•
• May
•
•

39. PAGE 38
•
•
(
)
•
• →
• →
•
•
ECB
•
•
•
• →
• →
FED
•
•
( )( )

40. PAGE 39
Bloomberg 2019/3/4
(1)

41. PAGE 40
Bloomberg 2019/3/4
(2)

43. PAGE 42
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2018/1 2018/3 2018/5 2018/7 2018/9 2018/11 2019/1
Bloomberg, 2019/02/20
特別股指數2018年以來報酬率走勢(非基金報酬)2018
2018
4.34%
(1)
10
9
10
0.23%
(2)
4.56%
2019 2018
1
6.63%

44. PAGE 43
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2010/1 2011/1 2012/1 2013/1 2014/1 2015/1 2016/1 2017/1 2018/1 2019/1
• 8
特別股指數走勢
Bloomberg, 2019/2/20
:
① 2010/03~2010/05 -6.05% 1.5
② 2011/07~2011/08 -10.15% 2.5
③ 2013/05~2013/08 -10.22% 8
④ 2016/01~2016/02 -4.71% 1
⑤ 2016/08~2016/11 -5.98% 3.5
⑥ 2018/09~2018/12 -6.78% 1
-7.32% 2.8
②
①
③
④
⑤
⑥

45. PAGE 44
Bloomberg, 2019/01/31
:
2010年以來特別股指數累積利息與總報酬率走勢(非基金報酬)
57.6%
84.0%
• 利息收益才是長期投資特別股的主要報酬來源，故在特別股發行企業的基本面依然強勁的背景下，短期市
場的震盪不應畏懼。
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

46. PAGE 45
Bloomberg, 2019/02/20
2018
1)
5.77%
5
2)
3)
2018
12.3%
特別股殖利率水準與未來報酬表現相關性高
(非基金報酬)
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
18%
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
2014/1 2015/1 2016/1 2017/1 2018/1 2019/1
( )
(%)

47. PAGE 46
2004-2006年升息循環結束後特別股大漲
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004/06 2004/09 2004/12 2005/03 2005/06 2005/09 2005/12 2006/03 2006/06 2006/09 2006/12 2007/03 2007/06
( %) ( )
Bloomberg 2004/6/30~2007/06/30
2004 (6/30)
8.84%
11.0%
•
• 2004 8.84% 11.0%

48. PAGE 47
2014
特別股年度總報酬及價格報酬(非基金報酬)
* Bloomberg 1999/1/1~2018/12/31
13.7%
4.1%
13.6%
-3.7%
15.4%
7.6%
2.3%
10.6%
-4.3%
5.8%
-3.0%
6.2%
-9.7%
8.4%
1.2%
-3.5%
4.5%
-9.6%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
• 2018 2013
2018
• 2018 2013 2018
2013 2014

49. PAGE 48
• 5.77%
2016 5.52%
Bloomberg, 2019/02/20
特別股指數與殖利率歷史走勢(非基金報酬)
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
5
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
2016/1 2016/7 2017/1 2017/7 2018/1 2018/7 2019/1
2016

50. PAGE 49
TR108056
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•
•
•
( )
•
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