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14 August
2020
PAGE 2
•
10
0.7208% 2 10
14 10
-0.412%
•
0.18% 486
0.29% 547
•
0.07%
0.13% 0.10%
0.37%
1.74%
Paulo Guedes Jair
Bolsonaro
Bloomberg 2020/8/13
0.83
-0.36
0.08
1.09
1.40
0.63
1.99
3.58
2.29
2.21
3.94
2.50
4.14
2.96
2.79
2.34
-1.43
-1.21
-1.09
-0.87
-0.77
-0.37
-0.27
-0.18
-0.17
-0.10
0.07
0.13
0.29
0.49
0.55
0.62
ESG ( )
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 0.72%
• Stoxx
6
600 2.77%
•
225 3.71%
300 2.67%
•
0.51%
Bloomberg 2020/8/13
1.79
-4.48
2.28
2.46
4.52
2.32
-3.13
3.59
6.92
4.41
5.57
0.55
1.51
7.42
2.04
5.76
-3.52
-2.67
-2.20
-1.25
-1.16
-0.94
0.41
0.51
0.72
0.75
1.00
2.77
3.19
3.41
3.71
4.07
BOVESPA
300
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
H
BAML
S&P 500
SENSEX
MSCI
600
DAX
RTS
Nikkei 225
MSCI
% %
PAGE 4
•
IEA OPEC
0.29%
3 0.69%
• 8 7 EIA
450 ( )
220
Bloomberg 2020/8/13
8.37
-4.79
-2.07
2.84
5.02
-5.34
4.35
5.24
5.87
5.34
2.55
-1.06
-5.32
-3.43
-3.07
-2.60
-1.53
-0.90
-0.79
-0.29
0.23
0.69
2.46
4.50
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %
PAGE 5
• 79 48
5 8
16
• 136
107 5
10
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/8/12
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
• Trump
TikTok
11
11
2022
•
Trump
400
• 7 (CPI)
0.6%( 2) CPI
0.6% 29
7 (PPI)
0.6%
• Joe Biden
(Kamala Harris)
Biden
( 2)
( 1) S&P 500
Bloomberg 2020/8/13
PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/8/13
( 1)
( 2)
•
0.18%( 1)
•
Occidental
Petroleum Targa Resources
Black Knight Inc
2,748
• Refinitiv I/B/E/S
8 13 9 S&P 500
2 81.4%
65% 4
71% S&P 500 2
33.7% 9.4%
• 7
176 ( 2)
479
10.2% 8 8
96.3 3
100
PAGE 9
• 6
9.1%( 1) 2
20.2%
8 Sentix
-18.2 -13.4
4
• 8 ZEW 7
59.3 71.5 58.0
-81.3 -68.8
• GDP 2 GDP 20.4%
2
Ramsden
• 7
3.9% 2
31.1%( 2) 6
( 1)
( 2) ( %)
Bloomberg 2020/8/13
PAGE 10
( 1)
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2020/8/13
• 7
1.7 ( 1) M2 10.7%
• 7 CPI 2.7%( 2)
3
CPI
0.5%
7 PPI
2.4%
•
• 7 -7%
10.9%
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/8/14
/ /
8/17 8 14.2 17.2
8/17 2 GDP( ) -25.7% -2.2%
8/17 6 ( ) - -17.7%
8/18 7 1,238k 1,186k
8/19 7 CPI( ) 0.4% 0.3%
8/19 6 ( ) -17.4% -16.3%
8/19 7 4.00% 4.00%
8/20 7 1.0% 2.0%
8/20 8 20.9 24.1
8/20 1 3.85% 3.85%
8/20 5 4.65% 4.65%
8/20 1 8.25% 8.25%
8/20 BSP 2.25% 2.25%
8/21 8 Markit PMI( ) 51.9 50.9
8/21 8 Markit PMI( ) 52.7 51.8
8/21 8 PMI( ) - 45.2
8/21 8 -15.5 -15.0
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.98 (8/13)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 126 (8/13) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.64 (8/13)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 412 (8/13) 5 : 358
PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.17 (8/13)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.96 (8/13)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 547 (8/13) 5 : 482
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 486 (8/13) 5 : 453
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.28 (8/13)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.19 (8/13)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 449 (8/13) 5 : 396
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 686 (8/13) 5 : 495
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.91 (8/13)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.45 (8/13)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 421 (8/13) 5 : 369
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 358 (8/13) 5 : 322
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.63 (8/13)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.69 (8/13)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 705 (8/13) 5 : 582
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 256 (8/13) 5 : 217
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.8 (8/13) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.4 (8/13) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.3 (8/13) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.7 (8/13) 5 : 16.2
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.1 (8/13) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.9 (8/13) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.6 (8/13) 5 : 17.5
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.0 (8/13) 5 : 12.2
/ /
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.13 (8/13) 5 : 17.18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 45.1 (8/13) 5 : 63.3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 54.9 (8/13) 5 : 64.8
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 401 (8/13) 5 : 384
/ /
PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13
5 1
34.3% 0.5%
28.3% 0.1%
5 1
34.3% 0.1%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
34.3% 0.3%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
32.2% 0.0%
25.4% 0.1%
PAGE 22
TR109222
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200814

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 0.7208% 2 10 14 10 -0.412% • 0.18% 486 0.29% 547 • 0.07% 0.13% 0.10% 0.37% 1.74% Paulo Guedes Jair Bolsonaro Bloomberg 2020/8/13 0.83 -0.36 0.08 1.09 1.40 0.63 1.99 3.58 2.29 2.21 3.94 2.50 4.14 2.96 2.79 2.34 -1.43 -1.21 -1.09 -0.87 -0.77 -0.37 -0.27 -0.18 -0.17 -0.10 0.07 0.13 0.29 0.49 0.55 0.62 ESG ( ) - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • S&P 500 0.72% • Stoxx 6 600 2.77% • 225 3.71% 300 2.67% • 0.51% Bloomberg 2020/8/13 1.79 -4.48 2.28 2.46 4.52 2.32 -3.13 3.59 6.92 4.41 5.57 0.55 1.51 7.42 2.04 5.76 -3.52 -2.67 -2.20 -1.25 -1.16 -0.94 0.41 0.51 0.72 0.75 1.00 2.77 3.19 3.41 3.71 4.07 BOVESPA 300 MSCI MSCI MSCI H BAML S&P 500 SENSEX MSCI 600 DAX RTS Nikkei 225 MSCI % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • IEA OPEC 0.29% 3 0.69% • 8 7 EIA 450 ( ) 220 Bloomberg 2020/8/13 8.37 -4.79 -2.07 2.84 5.02 -5.34 4.35 5.24 5.87 5.34 2.55 -1.06 -5.32 -3.43 -3.07 -2.60 -1.53 -0.90 -0.79 -0.29 0.23 0.69 2.46 4.50 LME LME LME LME CRB % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 79 48 5 8 16 • 136 107 5 10 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/8/12 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • Trump TikTok 11 11 2022 • Trump 400 • 7 (CPI) 0.6%( 2) CPI 0.6% 29 7 (PPI) 0.6% • Joe Biden (Kamala Harris) Biden ( 2) ( 1) S&P 500 Bloomberg 2020/8/13
  • 9. PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/8/13 ( 1) ( 2) • 0.18%( 1) • Occidental Petroleum Targa Resources Black Knight Inc 2,748 • Refinitiv I/B/E/S 8 13 9 S&P 500 2 81.4% 65% 4 71% S&P 500 2 33.7% 9.4% • 7 176 ( 2) 479 10.2% 8 8 96.3 3 100
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 6 9.1%( 1) 2 20.2% 8 Sentix -18.2 -13.4 4 • 8 ZEW 7 59.3 71.5 58.0 -81.3 -68.8 • GDP 2 GDP 20.4% 2 Ramsden • 7 3.9% 2 31.1%( 2) 6 ( 1) ( 2) ( %) Bloomberg 2020/8/13
  • 11. PAGE 10 ( 1) ( 2) ( ) Bloomberg 2020/8/13 • 7 1.7 ( 1) M2 10.7% • 7 CPI 2.7%( 2) 3 CPI 0.5% 7 PPI 2.4% • • 7 -7% 10.9%
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/8/14 / / 8/17 8 14.2 17.2 8/17 2 GDP( ) -25.7% -2.2% 8/17 6 ( ) - -17.7% 8/18 7 1,238k 1,186k 8/19 7 CPI( ) 0.4% 0.3% 8/19 6 ( ) -17.4% -16.3% 8/19 7 4.00% 4.00% 8/20 7 1.0% 2.0% 8/20 8 20.9 24.1 8/20 1 3.85% 3.85% 8/20 5 4.65% 4.65% 8/20 1 8.25% 8.25% 8/20 BSP 2.25% 2.25% 8/21 8 Markit PMI( ) 51.9 50.9 8/21 8 Markit PMI( ) 52.7 51.8 8/21 8 PMI( ) - 45.2 8/21 8 -15.5 -15.0
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 1.98 (8/13) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 126 (8/13) 5 : 131 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.64 (8/13) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 412 (8/13) 5 : 358
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.17 (8/13) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.96 (8/13) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 547 (8/13) 5 : 482 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 486 (8/13) 5 : 453
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.28 (8/13) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.19 (8/13) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 449 (8/13) 5 : 396 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 686 (8/13) 5 : 495
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.91 (8/13) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.45 (8/13) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 421 (8/13) 5 : 369 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 358 (8/13) 5 : 322
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.63 (8/13) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.69 (8/13) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 705 (8/13) 5 : 582 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 256 (8/13) 5 : 217
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 / / 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.8 (8/13) 5 : 16.0 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 22.4 (8/13) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 18.3 (8/13) 5 : 14.6 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 20.7 (8/13) 5 : 16.2
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 15.1 (8/13) 5 : 12.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 13.9 (8/13) 5 : 12.0 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.6 (8/13) 5 : 17.5 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 18.0 (8/13) 5 : 12.2 / /
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 22.13 (8/13) 5 : 17.18 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 45.1 (8/13) 5 : 63.3 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 54.9 (8/13) 5 : 64.8 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 401 (8/13) 5 : 384 / /
  • 22. PAGE 21 Bloomberg * 50% +50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/8/13 '16/8/13 '17/8/13 '18/8/13 '19/8/13 '20/8/13 5 1 34.3% 0.5% 28.3% 0.1% 5 1 34.3% 0.1% 30.7% 0.1% 5 1 34.3% 0.3% 29.5% 0.1% 5 1 32.2% 0.0% 25.4% 0.1%
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109222 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • / • • • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898