This document provides a summary of global economic indicators and financial market performance in March 2020. It notes that most major stock market indices declined significantly in March amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with the MSCI ACWI index falling over 8%. It also summarizes economic data showing anticipated declines in GDP growth for many countries and regions in 2020 from the economic impact of the pandemic. Bond yields declined substantially in March as well. The document concludes with a discussion of potential further policy responses from central banks.

1. March
2020
2020 2

2. I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.

3. I.

4. PAGE 3
MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI MSCI
300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI
ESG MSCI ( )
(NEXGEM) - - -
- - -
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
-8.9
-21.6
-7.2
-9.2
-18.7
-5.8
-18.8
-5.6
-15.3
1.0
-14.5
-11.8
-8.9
-0.7
-8.0
-7.1
-16.3
-1.3
-3.5
-14.0
-0.0
-13.1
-2.5
-11.8
6.1
-14.1
-10.0
-6.1
0.8
-5.5
3 % %
0.9
4.4
3.6
-3.1
0.2
3.7
2.2
0.3
1.7
-2.7
-1.8
-1.5
4.0
5.7
4.1
8.1
2.2
4.7
4.1
-0.1
1.6
4.2
3.1
3.0
3.6
-1.9
-0.2
0.7
3.6
5.9
4.6
7.9
-
-
ESG
3 % %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
-10.6
-9.5
-3.8
-13.1
0.4
-0.2
-5.4
-5.4
-1.6
3.1
0.6
-0.5
-6.7
-7.1
-3.7
-10.5
1.5
1.4
-3.6
-3.0
-0.7
3.0
2.0
-1.8
3 % %
-9.2
10.3
-31.4
-32.4
-16.1
-6.4
14.6
-29.7
-30.3
-14.0
LME
CRB
3 % %

6. II.

7. PAGE 6
2020/3
COVID-19

8. PAGE 7
• (COVID-19)
OECD( ) 2020 4.9% 2.4%
•
OECD 2020/3/2
2019 11
2020 3
⚫ 2019 ⚫ 2020
(OECD )

9. PAGE 8
•
• 11 ( )
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 2.3% (2019/12)
45
50
55
60
65
2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 2019/9
PMI 50.1 (2020/2) PMI 57.3 (2020/2)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CPI 2.5% (2020/1) CPI 2.3% (2020/1)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
3.5% (2020/2)

10. PAGE 9
• 3 0.5% 1%~1.25%
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
( 0.25%)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
( ) 1.25% (2020/3/6)

11. PAGE 10
• ( )
• G7
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 0.9% (2019/12)
40
45
50
55
60
65
2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 2019/9
PMI 49.2 (2020/2) PMI 52.6 (2020/2)
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
CPI 1.2% (2020/2) CPI 1.2% (2020/2)
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
7.4% (2020/1)

12. PAGE 11
•
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
( 0.1%)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0.0% (2020/3/6)
-0.5% (2020/3/6)

13. PAGE 12
• 10 PMI
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) -0.4% (2019/12)
46
48
50
52
54
56
2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 2019/9
PMI 47.8 (2020/2) PMI 46.8 (2020/2)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
CPI 0.7% (2020/1) CPI 0.4% (2020/1)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2.4% (2020/1)

14. PAGE 13
• ETF
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
( 0.1%)
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
-0.1% (2020/3/6)

15. PAGE 14
•
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP( ) 4.8% (2019/12)
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 2019/9
PMI 44.6 (2020/2) PMI 52.6 (2020/1)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
CPI 4.1% (2019/12)
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
5.0% (2019/12)

16. III.

17. PAGE 16
•
( )
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
10 0.762% (2020/3/6)
2 0.506% (2020/3/6)
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
10 -0.710% (2020/3/6)
2 -0.857% (2020/3/6)

18. PAGE 17
•
(Fallen Angel )
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
J.P. Morgan 2020/2 2020
407.3
267.3
0
100
200
300
400
500
2019 2020
( 10 )
70bp
90bp
110bp
130bp
150bp
170bp
190bp
210bp
230bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
144bp (2020/3/6) 5
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2.22% (2020/3/6) 5

19. PAGE 18
•
(CCC )
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6
Bank of America 2020/2
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
550bp (2020/3/6) 5
2.72
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LTMIssuerDefaultRate,Pct
BofA-ML US HY
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
6.36% (2020/3/6)

20. PAGE 19
•
• 5
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 (EMBI) (NEXGEM)
J.P. Morgan 2020/2/7 2020
127
104
121
82
0
50
100
150
2017 2018 2019 2020
( 10 )
200bp
300bp
400bp
500bp
600bp
700bp
800bp
900bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
405bp (2020/3/6)
563bp (2020/3/6)
5
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4.83% (2020/3/6) 5

21. PAGE 20
•
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 (CEMBI)
J.P. Morgan 2020/2/7 2020
150bp
200bp
250bp
300bp
350bp
400bp
450bp
500bp
550bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
321bp (2020/2/28) 5
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
4.16% (2020/3/6) 5
316
207
291
184
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2017 2018 2019 2020
( 10 )

22. PAGE 21
•
( ) CCC
• 5
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 (JACI)
Bank of America 2020/2
150 bp
170 bp
190 bp
210 bp
230 bp
250 bp
270 bp
290 bp
310 bp
330 bp
350 bp
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
234bp (2020/3/6) 5
(JACI)
1.69
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LTMIssuerDefaultRate,
Pct
Asia HY

23. IV.

24. PAGE 23
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 12
J.P. Morgan 2020/3/2
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
500 16.7 (2020/3/6) 5

25. PAGE 24
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 12
97
98
98
99
99
100
100
101
101
102
2020/1 2020/2 2020/3
600 S&P 500
12 ( 2020/1/1 100)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
600 13.4 (2020/3/6)
5

26. PAGE 25
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 12
Bloomberg 2020/1/31
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
300 11.9 (2020/3/6) 5

27. PAGE 26
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 12
Bank of America 2020/3/6
( )
( )
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MSCI 16.8 (2020/3/6) 5

28. PAGE 27
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 12
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BOVESPA 11.5 (2020/3/6)
5

29. PAGE 28
•
Bloomberg 2020/3/6 ICE
200bp
250bp
300bp
350bp
400bp
450bp
500bp
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 416bp (2020/3/6) 5
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.93% (2020/3/6)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

30. V.

31. PAGE 30
10
(Fallen Angel)
2020/3
2

32. PAGE 31
2020/3
2

33. 2

34. PAGE 33
Bloomberg 2020/2/29
2020 4
• 4/28 BoJ
• 4/30 FOMC
• 4/30 ECB
2020 5 • 5/7 BoE
2020 6
• 6/4 ECB
• 6/10 OPEC
• 6/10-6/12 G7
• 6/11 FOMC
• 6/18 BoE

35. PAGE 34
2020/3
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