SlideShare a Scribd company logo
22 March
2019
PAGE 2
•
FOMC 10
2.5369%
•
0.45%
0.61%
6.22 418.96
•
1.07%
0.67% 0.80%
1.08%
1.69%
Bloomberg 2019/3/21
1.67
1.22
1.46
0.94
1.13
1.36
1.49
1.49
1.48
1.44
1.71
1.52
1.85
2.71
1.21
-0.00
0.45
0.47
0.55
0.60
0.61
0.64
0.67
0.72
0.72
0.80
0.85
1.07
1.08
1.69
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
• S&P 500
1.65%
•
600
0.57%
•
225
1.51%
• 3.70%
BOVESPA
1.90%
•
8.32%
Bloomberg 2019/3/21
-0.21
1.11
1.59
-1.36
2.78
2.11
0.67
2.35
2.88
6.93
1.78
2.54
2.81
12.71
3.12
4.13
-1.90
-0.32
-0.00
0.55
0.57
0.85
1.51
1.57
1.65
1.67
2.05
2.15
2.52
3.70
3.87
4.71
BOVESPA
DAX
MSCI
600
H
Nikkei 225
MSCI
500
SENSEX
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
% %
PAGE 4
• OPEC+
(OPEC) OPEC
OPEC 4
6
• 3 15
958.9 ( ) 175
458.7
Bloomberg EIA 2019/3/21
-0.29
0.64
5.67
1.14
1.18
-1.08
1.07
-0.05
0.20
5.30
-4.11
6.91
-0.18
0.27
0.35
0.82
0.94
1.02
1.08
1.34
1.62
2.34
3.04
3.88
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %
PAGE 5
• 207 132
40 7
4
• 121 66
32
12 11 10
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/3/21
PAGE 7
• FOMC
2.25%~2.5%
5
9
12
2 ( 1)
2.3% 2.1%
• Trump
• 2
0.1%( 2) 0.4%
3.7%
0.4%
• Trump
(veto)
Bloomberg 2019/3/21
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Churchill Downs ViaSat
• 3
2 93.8 97.8
( 2) 95.6 1
91.2
• (Micron)
21 9.6%
S&P BB+
Bloomberg 2019/3/21
( 2)
( 1)
PAGE 9
• May
6 30
5 22
4 12
( 1)
•
0.75%
•
-0.1% 10 0%
• 2
2 1.2%( 2)
0.6%
Bloomberg 2019/3/21
( 1) /
( 2)
PAGE 10
•
4 1
16% 13%
10% 9%
•
• 2 96
( 1) 1 147
17
5.4% 363 2.4%
267
• Bolsonaro
(OECD)
6.5%( 2)
Bloomberg 2019/3/21
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
3/25 3 IFO 98.5 98.5
3/25 2 -0.25 -0.43
3/25 3 9.6 13.1
3/26 2 ( ) -0.40% 18.60%
3/26 2 ( ) 0.20% 1.40%
3/26 1 CoreLogic 20 ( )( ) 0.30% 0.19%
3/26 3 12 16
3/26 3 132 131.4
3/28 4 GDP ( )( ) 2.40% 2.60%
3/28 SARB 6.75% 6.75%
3/28 8.25% 8.25%
3/29 3 ( )( ) 1.10% 1.10%
3/29 3 CPI ( ) -- 1.50%
3/29 1 PCE ( ) -- 1.70%
3/29 3 61.7 64.7
3/29 2 ( ) 1.70% -6.90%
3/31 3 PMI 49.5 49.2
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 118.0 (3/21) 5 : 126.2
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.75 (3/21)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.66 (3/21)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 312.01 (3/21) 5 : 319.2
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.30 (3/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 419.0 (3/21) 5 : 454.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.43 (3/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 380.0 (3/21) 5 : 439.1
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.38 (3/21)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 402.0 (3/21) 5 : 370.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.47 (3/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 503.1 (3/21) 5 : 507.7
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.01 (3/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 339.99 (3/21) 5 : 340.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.71 (3/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 324.05 (3/21) 5 : 332.5
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.37 (3/21)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 488.0 (3/21) 5 : 565.7
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.02 (3/21)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 257.81 (3/21) 5 : 255.3
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.8 (3/21) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.2 (3/21) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.1 (3/21) 5 : 15.3
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.8 (3/21) 5 : 17.4
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.7 (3/21) 5 : 12.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.1 (3/21) 5 : 12.7
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 23.9 (3/20) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.0 (3/21) 5 : 12.8
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.63 (3/21) 5 : 14.96
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 44.5 (3/21) 5 : 64.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.7 (3/21) 5 : 70.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 335.1 (3/21) 5 : 366.5
PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21
5 1
35.7% 0.0%
29.4% 0.0%
5 1
21.8% 0.5%
31.6% 0.1%
5 1
28.8% 0.3%
30.5% 0.1%
5 1
23.4% 1.1%
26.5% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108065
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20190322

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • FOMC 10 2.5369% • 0.45% 0.61% 6.22 418.96 • 1.07% 0.67% 0.80% 1.08% 1.69% Bloomberg 2019/3/21 1.67 1.22 1.46 0.94 1.13 1.36 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.44 1.71 1.52 1.85 2.71 1.21 -0.00 0.45 0.47 0.55 0.60 0.61 0.64 0.67 0.72 0.72 0.80 0.85 1.07 1.08 1.69 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • S&P 500 1.65% • 600 0.57% • 225 1.51% • 3.70% BOVESPA 1.90% • 8.32% Bloomberg 2019/3/21 -0.21 1.11 1.59 -1.36 2.78 2.11 0.67 2.35 2.88 6.93 1.78 2.54 2.81 12.71 3.12 4.13 -1.90 -0.32 -0.00 0.55 0.57 0.85 1.51 1.57 1.65 1.67 2.05 2.15 2.52 3.70 3.87 4.71 BOVESPA DAX MSCI 600 H Nikkei 225 MSCI 500 SENSEX MSCI MSCI MSCI RTS % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • OPEC+ (OPEC) OPEC OPEC 4 6 • 3 15 958.9 ( ) 175 458.7 Bloomberg EIA 2019/3/21 -0.29 0.64 5.67 1.14 1.18 -1.08 1.07 -0.05 0.20 5.30 -4.11 6.91 -0.18 0.27 0.35 0.82 0.94 1.02 1.08 1.34 1.62 2.34 3.04 3.88 LME LME LME LME CRB % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 207 132 40 7 4 • 121 66 32 12 11 10 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/3/21
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • FOMC 2.25%~2.5% 5 9 12 2 ( 1) 2.3% 2.1% • Trump • 2 0.1%( 2) 0.4% 3.7% 0.4% • Trump (veto) Bloomberg 2019/3/21 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • Churchill Downs ViaSat • 3 2 93.8 97.8 ( 2) 95.6 1 91.2 • (Micron) 21 9.6% S&P BB+ Bloomberg 2019/3/21 ( 2) ( 1)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • May 6 30 5 22 4 12 ( 1) • 0.75% • -0.1% 10 0% • 2 2 1.2%( 2) 0.6% Bloomberg 2019/3/21 ( 1) / ( 2)
  • 11. PAGE 10 • 4 1 16% 13% 10% 9% • • 2 96 ( 1) 1 147 17 5.4% 363 2.4% 267 • Bolsonaro (OECD) 6.5%( 2) Bloomberg 2019/3/21 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg / / 3/25 3 IFO 98.5 98.5 3/25 2 -0.25 -0.43 3/25 3 9.6 13.1 3/26 2 ( ) -0.40% 18.60% 3/26 2 ( ) 0.20% 1.40% 3/26 1 CoreLogic 20 ( )( ) 0.30% 0.19% 3/26 3 12 16 3/26 3 132 131.4 3/28 4 GDP ( )( ) 2.40% 2.60% 3/28 SARB 6.75% 6.75% 3/28 8.25% 8.25% 3/29 3 ( )( ) 1.10% 1.10% 3/29 3 CPI ( ) -- 1.50% 3/29 1 PCE ( ) -- 1.70% 3/29 3 61.7 64.7 3/29 2 ( ) 1.70% -6.90% 3/31 3 PMI 49.5 49.2
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 118.0 (3/21) 5 : 126.2 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 3.75 (3/21) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.66 (3/21) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 312.01 (3/21) 5 : 319.2
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.30 (3/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 419.0 (3/21) 5 : 454.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.43 (3/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 380.0 (3/21) 5 : 439.1 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.38 (3/21) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 402.0 (3/21) 5 : 370.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.47 (3/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 503.1 (3/21) 5 : 507.7
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.01 (3/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 339.99 (3/21) 5 : 340.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.71 (3/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 324.05 (3/21) 5 : 332.5
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.37 (3/21) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 488.0 (3/21) 5 : 565.7 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.02 (3/21) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 257.81 (3/21) 5 : 255.3
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 15.8 (3/21) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 17.2 (3/21) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 14.1 (3/21) 5 : 15.3 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 15.8 (3/21) 5 : 17.4
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.7 (3/21) 5 : 12.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.1 (3/21) 5 : 12.7 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 23.9 (3/20) 5 : 18.4 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.0 (3/21) 5 : 12.8
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 13.63 (3/21) 5 : 14.96 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 44.5 (3/21) 5 : 64.7 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 63.7 (3/21) 5 : 70.8 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 335.1 (3/21) 5 : 366.5
  • 22. PAGE 21 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '14/3/21 '15/3/21 '16/3/21 '17/3/21 '18/3/21 '19/3/21 5 1 35.7% 0.0% 29.4% 0.0% 5 1 21.8% 0.5% 31.6% 0.1% 5 1 28.8% 0.3% 30.5% 0.1% 5 1 23.4% 1.1% 26.5% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108065 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898