SlideShare a Scribd company logo
13 March
2020
PAGE 2
• (WHO)
10
0.8042%
0.5407%
10
10 -0.741%
•
8.28%
726 9.51%
814
•
10.97%
2.2%
9.08%
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
-10.65
-10.59
-10.10
-10.70
-9.71
-10.43
-5.47
-3.11
-4.87
-2.48
-0.95
-2.05
-0.64
0.72
-0.46
4.85
-10.97
-9.51
-9.12
-9.08
-8.28
-8.14
-5.90
-5.49
-4.67
-4.11
-3.88
-3.59
-2.20
-1.41
-1.40
0.46
-
ESG ( )
-
% %
PAGE 3
• OPEC+
VIX
75.5
•
S&P 500
17.97% 2
•
600 22.54%
225 12.98%
•
300 6.08%
•
8.66%
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
-40.12
-37.79
-36.84
-37.95
-33.37
-31.60
-26.25
-26.60
-20.42
-21.14
-22.22
-15.65
-11.48
-10.65
-9.94
-0.84
-29.11
-29.00
-27.19
-27.00
-23.30
-22.54
-18.48
-17.97
-15.03
-14.80
-12.98
-12.09
-9.49
-9.34
-8.66
-6.08
MSCI
BOVESPA
MSCI
RTS
DAX
600
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
SENSEX
Nikkei 225
MSCI
H
BAML
300
% %
PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
-40.46
-38.44
-17.36
-9.69
-12.95
0.64
-4.50
-3.70
-5.62
-4.66
-9.78
-7.67
-33.55
-31.37
-12.58
-8.22
-5.76
-5.75
-4.19
-4.18
-4.12
-3.72
-3.63
-2.55
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %
• OPEC OPEC
30%
• 3 6
770 ( )
250
PAGE 5
• 47 47
48 29
26
• 259
159 112
70
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/3/11
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
( 1) S&P 500
( 2) ( )
• (WHO)
(Pandemic)
NBA Broadway Disney
Trump 30
•
1750 14 (repo)
450 repo
500
9
4.3
• 2 3.5%
27.3 ( 2)
2018
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) PPI (%)
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
•
•
Del Monte
Foods
• Joe
Biden
6
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warran
Sanders
• 2 (PPI)
-0.6%( 2)
2015 2 (CPI)
PAGE 9
•
1,200
250
• 2
0.75% 0.25%( 1) 2016 8
300
• Conte
250
Conte 4 3
•
4,308
1.6
5,000
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 10
( 1) CPI/ PPI (%)
( 2) CPI
Bloomberg 2020/3/12
• 2
9,057
2 8,554
3
• 2 (CPI)
5.2%( 1) 5.4%
CPI 1.0% 2
(PPI)
0.4%
• 2 (CPI)
6.58%( 2) 2
6.80%
CPI
•
Bolsonaro
10 450
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/3/13
/ /
3/16 3 6.0 12.9
3/16 2 ( ) -3.0% -
3/16 2 ( ) -3.1% -
3/16 1 ( ) -0.4% -12.5%
3/17 2 ( ) 0.2% 0.3%
3/17 2 ( ) 0.4% -0.3%
3/17 3 ZEW - 10.4
3/19 FOMC ( ) 0.75% 1.25%
3/19 2 0.0% 0.8%
3/19 2 CPI( ) 0.5% 0.7%
3/19 1 ( ) 0.3% 0.0%
3/19 -0.10% -0.10%
3/19 Selic 4.00% 4.25%
3/19 SARB 6.00% 6.25%
3/19 7 4.50% 4.75%
3/20 1 4.00% 4.05%
3/20 5 4.70% 4.75%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.03 (3/12)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 209.0 (3/12) 5 : 126.2
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.61 (3/12)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 475.75 (3/12) 5 : 352.5
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.78 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 813.5 (3/12) 5 : 458.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.22 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 726.0 (3/12) 5 : 434.5
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.31 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 654.0 (3/12) 5 : 376.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.83 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 715.7 (3/12) 5 : 516.3
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.31 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 537.17 (3/12) 5 : 346.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.45 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 465.10 (3/12) 5 : 335.8
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 11.24 (3/12)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1040.0 (3/12) 5 : 556.3
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.10 (3/12)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 342.03 (3/12) 5 : 257.3
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.8 (3/12) 5 : 15.9
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.0 (3/12) 5 : 16.8
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 10.9 (3/12) 5 : 14.5
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 13.7 (3/12) 5 : 16.3
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 10.6 (3/12) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.3 (3/12) 5 : 12.3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 14.9 (3/12) 5 : 17.2
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 8.9 (3/12) 5 : 12.0
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 75.47 (3/12) 5 : 15.32
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 152.6 (3/12) 5 : 65.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.7 (3/12) 5 : 66.5
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 685.4 (3/12) 5 : 366.0
PAGE 21
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12
5 1
22.5% -8.7%
28.5% 0.1%
5 1
21.13% -8.7%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
21.9% -8.7%
29.7% 0.1%
5 1
20.4% -9.1%
26.0% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR109061
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200313

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • (WHO) 10 0.8042% 0.5407% 10 10 -0.741% • 8.28% 726 9.51% 814 • 10.97% 2.2% 9.08% Bloomberg 2020/3/12 -10.65 -10.59 -10.10 -10.70 -9.71 -10.43 -5.47 -3.11 -4.87 -2.48 -0.95 -2.05 -0.64 0.72 -0.46 4.85 -10.97 -9.51 -9.12 -9.08 -8.28 -8.14 -5.90 -5.49 -4.67 -4.11 -3.88 -3.59 -2.20 -1.41 -1.40 0.46 - ESG ( ) - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • OPEC+ VIX 75.5 • S&P 500 17.97% 2 • 600 22.54% 225 12.98% • 300 6.08% • 8.66% Bloomberg 2020/3/12 -40.12 -37.79 -36.84 -37.95 -33.37 -31.60 -26.25 -26.60 -20.42 -21.14 -22.22 -15.65 -11.48 -10.65 -9.94 -0.84 -29.11 -29.00 -27.19 -27.00 -23.30 -22.54 -18.48 -17.97 -15.03 -14.80 -12.98 -12.09 -9.49 -9.34 -8.66 -6.08 MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTS DAX 600 MSCI S&P 500 MSCI SENSEX Nikkei 225 MSCI H BAML 300 % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 47 47 48 29 26 • 259 159 112 70 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/3/11 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 ( 1) S&P 500 ( 2) ( ) • (WHO) (Pandemic) NBA Broadway Disney Trump 30 • 1750 14 (repo) 450 repo 500 9 4.3 • 2 3.5% 27.3 ( 2) 2018 Bloomberg 2020/3/12
  • 9. PAGE 8 ( 1) ( 2) PPI (%) Bloomberg 2020/3/12 • • Del Monte Foods • Joe Biden 6 Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warran Sanders • 2 (PPI) -0.6%( 2) 2015 2 (CPI)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 1,200 250 • 2 0.75% 0.25%( 1) 2016 8 300 • Conte 250 Conte 4 3 • 4,308 1.6 5,000 Bloomberg 2020/3/12 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 11. PAGE 10 ( 1) CPI/ PPI (%) ( 2) CPI Bloomberg 2020/3/12 • 2 9,057 2 8,554 3 • 2 (CPI) 5.2%( 1) 5.4% CPI 1.0% 2 (PPI) 0.4% • 2 (CPI) 6.58%( 2) 2 6.80% CPI • Bolsonaro 10 450
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/3/13 / / 3/16 3 6.0 12.9 3/16 2 ( ) -3.0% - 3/16 2 ( ) -3.1% - 3/16 1 ( ) -0.4% -12.5% 3/17 2 ( ) 0.2% 0.3% 3/17 2 ( ) 0.4% -0.3% 3/17 3 ZEW - 10.4 3/19 FOMC ( ) 0.75% 1.25% 3/19 2 0.0% 0.8% 3/19 2 CPI( ) 0.5% 0.7% 3/19 1 ( ) 0.3% 0.0% 3/19 -0.10% -0.10% 3/19 Selic 4.00% 4.25% 3/19 SARB 6.00% 6.25% 3/19 7 4.50% 4.75% 3/20 1 4.00% 4.05% 3/20 5 4.70% 4.75%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.03 (3/12) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 209.0 (3/12) 5 : 126.2 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.61 (3/12) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 475.75 (3/12) 5 : 352.5
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 8.78 (3/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 813.5 (3/12) 5 : 458.8 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 8.22 (3/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 726.0 (3/12) 5 : 434.5
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.31 (3/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 654.0 (3/12) 5 : 376.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.83 (3/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 715.7 (3/12) 5 : 516.3
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.31 (3/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 537.17 (3/12) 5 : 346.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.45 (3/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 465.10 (3/12) 5 : 335.8
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 11.24 (3/12) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 1040.0 (3/12) 5 : 556.3 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.10 (3/12) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 342.03 (3/12) 5 : 257.3
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.8 (3/12) 5 : 15.9 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.0 (3/12) 5 : 16.8 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 10.9 (3/12) 5 : 14.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 13.7 (3/12) 5 : 16.3
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 10.6 (3/12) 5 : 11.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 11.3 (3/12) 5 : 12.3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 14.9 (3/12) 5 : 17.2 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 8.9 (3/12) 5 : 12.0
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 75.47 (3/12) 5 : 15.32 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 152.6 (3/12) 5 : 65.0 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.7 (3/12) 5 : 66.5 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 685.4 (3/12) 5 : 366.0
  • 22. PAGE 21 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/3/12 '16/3/12 '17/3/12 '18/3/12 '19/3/12 '20/3/12 5 1 22.5% -8.7% 28.5% 0.1% 5 1 21.13% -8.7% 30.9% 0.1% 5 1 21.9% -8.7% 29.7% 0.1% 5 1 20.4% -9.1% 26.0% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109061 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898