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4 September
2020
PAGE 2
•
10 11
0.6347% 10
-0.4880%
•
0.30% 480
0.67% 533
• 1.49%
IMF 65
20.74% 0.55%
0.31%
1.42%
6.22%
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
0.29
0.91
0.74
0.86
1.93
1.33
0.64
2.33
1.97
1.82
-0.34
-0.20
0.13
0.52
-0.33
1.80
0.22
0.30
0.31
0.47
0.52
0.55
0.58
0.61
0.67
0.67
0.91
0.93
1.05
1.42
1.43
1.49
-
-
ESG ( )
% %
PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500 0.85%
NASDAQ 1.44%
600 1.25%
•
225 1.11%
300 1.81%
•
0.17%
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
-3.53
-2.72
-0.93
0.67
3.65
4.87
2.87
4.19
5.55
1.96
3.25
1.39
-2.05
5.72
0.96
-1.14
-3.59
-3.29
-2.57
-1.25
-0.86
-0.85
-0.75
-0.70
-0.31
-0.31
-0.29
-0.17
0.10
1.11
1.81
3.33
MSCI
RTS
H
600
MSCI
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
DAX
BAML
BOVESPA
Nikkei 225
300
MSCI
% %
PAGE 4
•
• 8 28 EIA
936.2 ( )
200
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
0.88
-0.18
0.05
2.49
1.13
8.25
1.60
-2.33
8.18
6.19
11.42
8.17
-3.88
-2.26
-1.85
-1.49
-0.87
-0.63
-0.06
0.07
1.15
1.98
2.76
3.07
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 15 39
3 5
13
• 220
166 11
32
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/9/2
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
Fed
• Fed
8
• 8 ISM PMI 56( 2)
4
1
8
PMI 56.9 3
• 8/31
Salesforce.com
(Amgen) (Honeywell)
(Exxon Mobil) (Pfizer)
(Raytheon Technologies) (Apple)
•
11
23
( 2) ISM
( 1) S&P 500
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
PAGE 8
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
( 1)
( 2) ( )
•
0.30%( 1)
•
8
528 6 580
9
350 400 250
350
• 8 ADP
42.8 21.2
90
• 7
1.9%( 2)
6.2%
600 7
8
PAGE 9
• 8
-0.2%( 1) 0.2% 2016 5
CPI
0.4%
• 7 6
7.7% 7.9% 8.0%
•
1,000 GDP
4%
16
2022 2019
•
(LDP)
( 1) (%)
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
( 2) (%)
PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/9/3
• 8 PMI
53.1( 1) 2011 2
9
3
8 PMI 54 4
6
• 8 Markit PMI 7
46 52 4
48.2
• 8 PMI 48.5
50
3
2 GDP
3.3% 3.2%
2008 4
• 8 Markit PMI 7
58.2 64.7 3
12
( 1) PMI
( 2) PMI
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/9/4
/ /
9/7 9 Sentix -11.1 -13.4
9/7 7 ( ) 4.9% 8.9%
9/7 8 ( ) 7.6% 7.2%
9/7 8 ( ) 0.4% -1.4%
9/8 8 NFIB 98.8 98.8
9/8 2 GDP( ) -28.5% -27.8%
9/9 8 CPI( ) 2.4% 2.7%
9/9 8 PPI( ) -1.9% -2.4%
9/9 0.25% 0.25%
9/10 7 ( ) -0.4% -0.1%
9/10 8 PPI( ) 0.2% 0.6%
9/10 ECB 0.00% 0.00%
9/10 7 ( ) 2.8% -7.6%
9/10-9/15 8 1,295.5b 992.7b
9/10 7 ( ) - 0.5%
9/11 8 CPI( ) 0.3% 0.6%
9/11 7 ( ) -12.0% -16.6%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 1.93 (9/3)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 128 (9/3) 5 : 130
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.56 (9/3)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 410 (9/3) 5 : 358
PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.97 (9/3)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.84 (9/3)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 533 (9/3) 5 : 482
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 480 (9/3) 5 : 452
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.13 (9/3)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.01 (9/3)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 441 (9/3) 5 : 397
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 653 (9/3) 5 : 496
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.89 (9/3)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.35 (9/3)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 423 (9/3) 5 : 369
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 350 (9/3) 5 : 321
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.25 (9/3)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.70 (9/3)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 673 (9/3) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 251 (9/3) 5 : 217
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.8 (9/3) 5 : 16.1
8
13
18
23
28
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.5 (9/3) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.7 (9/3) 5 : 14.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.6 (9/3) 5 : 16.2
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 15.0 (9/3) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.5 (9/3) 5 : 12.1
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.5 (9/3) 5 : 17.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.6 (9/3) 5 : 12.3
/ /
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 33.60 (9/3) 5 : 17.17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 45.8 (9/3) 5 : 62.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.4 (9/3) 5 : 64.6
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 364 (9/3) 5 : 384
/ /
PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3
5 1
35.9% -0.2%
28.2% 0.3%
5 1
36.5% 0.6%
30.6% 0.1%
5 1
36.2% 0.2%
29.4% 0.2%
5 1
33.4% 1.3%
25.3% 0.1%
PAGE 22
TR109244
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200904

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 11 0.6347% 10 -0.4880% • 0.30% 480 0.67% 533 • 1.49% IMF 65 20.74% 0.55% 0.31% 1.42% 6.22% Bloomberg 2020/9/3 0.29 0.91 0.74 0.86 1.93 1.33 0.64 2.33 1.97 1.82 -0.34 -0.20 0.13 0.52 -0.33 1.80 0.22 0.30 0.31 0.47 0.52 0.55 0.58 0.61 0.67 0.67 0.91 0.93 1.05 1.42 1.43 1.49 - - ESG ( ) % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • S&P 500 0.85% NASDAQ 1.44% 600 1.25% • 225 1.11% 300 1.81% • 0.17% Bloomberg 2020/9/3 -3.53 -2.72 -0.93 0.67 3.65 4.87 2.87 4.19 5.55 1.96 3.25 1.39 -2.05 5.72 0.96 -1.14 -3.59 -3.29 -2.57 -1.25 -0.86 -0.85 -0.75 -0.70 -0.31 -0.31 -0.29 -0.17 0.10 1.11 1.81 3.33 MSCI RTS H 600 MSCI S&P 500 MSCI MSCI SENSEX DAX BAML BOVESPA Nikkei 225 300 MSCI % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • • 8 28 EIA 936.2 ( ) 200 Bloomberg 2020/9/3 0.88 -0.18 0.05 2.49 1.13 8.25 1.60 -2.33 8.18 6.19 11.42 8.17 -3.88 -2.26 -1.85 -1.49 -0.87 -0.63 -0.06 0.07 1.15 1.98 2.76 3.07 CRB LME LME LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 15 39 3 5 13 • 220 166 11 32 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/9/2 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 Fed • Fed 8 • 8 ISM PMI 56( 2) 4 1 8 PMI 56.9 3 • 8/31 Salesforce.com (Amgen) (Honeywell) (Exxon Mobil) (Pfizer) (Raytheon Technologies) (Apple) • 11 23 ( 2) ISM ( 1) S&P 500 Bloomberg 2020/9/3
  • 9. PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/9/3 ( 1) ( 2) ( ) • 0.30%( 1) • 8 528 6 580 9 350 400 250 350 • 8 ADP 42.8 21.2 90 • 7 1.9%( 2) 6.2% 600 7 8
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 8 -0.2%( 1) 0.2% 2016 5 CPI 0.4% • 7 6 7.7% 7.9% 8.0% • 1,000 GDP 4% 16 2022 2019 • (LDP) ( 1) (%) Bloomberg 2020/9/3 ( 2) (%)
  • 11. PAGE 10 Bloomberg 2020/9/3 • 8 PMI 53.1( 1) 2011 2 9 3 8 PMI 54 4 6 • 8 Markit PMI 7 46 52 4 48.2 • 8 PMI 48.5 50 3 2 GDP 3.3% 3.2% 2008 4 • 8 Markit PMI 7 58.2 64.7 3 12 ( 1) PMI ( 2) PMI
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/9/4 / / 9/7 9 Sentix -11.1 -13.4 9/7 7 ( ) 4.9% 8.9% 9/7 8 ( ) 7.6% 7.2% 9/7 8 ( ) 0.4% -1.4% 9/8 8 NFIB 98.8 98.8 9/8 2 GDP( ) -28.5% -27.8% 9/9 8 CPI( ) 2.4% 2.7% 9/9 8 PPI( ) -1.9% -2.4% 9/9 0.25% 0.25% 9/10 7 ( ) -0.4% -0.1% 9/10 8 PPI( ) 0.2% 0.6% 9/10 ECB 0.00% 0.00% 9/10 7 ( ) 2.8% -7.6% 9/10-9/15 8 1,295.5b 992.7b 9/10 7 ( ) - 0.5% 9/11 8 CPI( ) 0.3% 0.6% 9/11 7 ( ) -12.0% -16.6%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 1.93 (9/3) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 128 (9/3) 5 : 130 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.56 (9/3) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 410 (9/3) 5 : 358
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.97 (9/3) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.84 (9/3) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 533 (9/3) 5 : 482 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 480 (9/3) 5 : 452
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.13 (9/3) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.01 (9/3) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 441 (9/3) 5 : 397 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 653 (9/3) 5 : 496
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.89 (9/3) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.35 (9/3) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 423 (9/3) 5 : 369 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 350 (9/3) 5 : 321
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.25 (9/3) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.70 (9/3) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 673 (9/3) 5 : 581 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 251 (9/3) 5 : 217
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 / / 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.8 (9/3) 5 : 16.1 8 13 18 23 28 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 22.5 (9/3) 5 : 17.2 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.7 (9/3) 5 : 14.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.6 (9/3) 5 : 16.2
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 15.0 (9/3) 5 : 12.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.5 (9/3) 5 : 12.1 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.5 (9/3) 5 : 17.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 16.6 (9/3) 5 : 12.3 / /
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 33.60 (9/3) 5 : 17.17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 45.8 (9/3) 5 : 62.8 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.4 (9/3) 5 : 64.6 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 364 (9/3) 5 : 384 / /
  • 22. PAGE 21 Bloomberg * 50% +50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/9/3 '16/9/3 '17/9/3 '18/9/3 '19/9/3 '20/9/3 5 1 35.9% -0.2% 28.2% 0.3% 5 1 36.5% 0.6% 30.6% 0.1% 5 1 36.2% 0.2% 29.4% 0.2% 5 1 33.4% 1.3% 25.3% 0.1%
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109244 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • / • • • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898