SlideShare a Scribd company logo
17 July
2020
PAGE 2
•
10
0.6168%
10 -0.465%
•
0.93% 39 558
0.74% 21
616
• 0.25%
0.24%
0.17%
0.43%
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
0.46
1.54
1.25
1.13
1.32
0.18
1.29
1.84
1.26
1.94
1.41
0.66
1.66
2.31
0.71
0.15
-0.26
-0.22
0.03
0.15
0.17
0.23
0.24
0.25
0.29
0.29
0.31
0.43
0.45
0.54
0.74
0.93
-
-
ESG ( )
% %
PAGE 3
•
•
S&P 500
2.02%
7,500
600 2.33%
DAX 3.09%
•
225
1.07% 2 GDP
300 6.70%
•
0.71%
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
12.50
2.70
6.59
5.67
-1.83
-2.63
8.53
5.61
1.88
1.18
0.83
7.51
3.45
2.91
2.42
4.54
-6.70
-6.01
-3.93
-3.12
-1.17
-0.75
-0.72
-0.29
0.52
0.71
1.07
1.40
1.47
2.02
2.33
3.09
300
H
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
SENSEX
MSCI
BAML
Nikkei 225
BOVESPA
MSCI
S&P 500
600
DAX
% %
PAGE 4
•
IEA
OPEC+ 107%
OPEC+ 8
970 / 770 /
• 7 10
749 ( )
210
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
0.38
4.68
4.09
3.06
3.33
4.57
3.34
7.91
12.36
5.88
6.18
11.53
-5.30
-2.27
-0.35
-0.33
0.26
0.39
1.59
1.95
2.17
2.41
2.85
3.22
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 48 17
13 1
17
• 93
79 15
19
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/15
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
• Larry Kudlow
Trump
•
7
Brainard Fed
8 600
8,640 ( 1)
• 6
7.5%( 2) 2
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
( 2) ( )
( 1)
PAGE 8
•
( 1)
• 12
Carnival
Cruise Line 10
Norwegian Cruise
Line
•
S&P 500
200 S&P 500
2 10.8% EPS
-44.6%
3.8% EPS
-21.5%
Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs J.P Morgan
Domino’s Pepsi
Netflix Bank of America
• 7 11
130 ( 2)
1 17
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
( 1)
( 2) ( )
PAGE 9
•
2%
(PEPP)
1.35 Lagarde
• 7 ZEW
6 58.6 59.6( 1)
7 ZEW 59.3
• 5 GDP 1.8%
24.0%
9 11
1,100
•
-0.1%( 2) 0% 10
3
2020 GDP -4.5% -5.7%
( 1) ZEW
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
PAGE 10
GDP
( 1) GDP
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/7/16
• GDP 2 GDP
3.2%( 1) 2.5%
3.1% 6
4.8%
1.8%
• 6 1.81
M2 11.1%
6 3.43
8,099
•
6 (CPI) 6.09%
5.3%
•
1 4%( 2)
2016
4
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/7/17
/ /
7/20 1 3.85% 3.85%
7/20 5 4.65% 4.65%
7/21 6 4.29 2.61
7/21 6 CPI( ) 0.1% 0.1%
7/21 6 ( ) - -32.0%
7/22 7 PMI( ) - 40.1
7/23 6 3.4% 2.8%
7/23 - 44.3
7/23 7 -11.8 -14.7
7/23 2 GDP( ) -2.1% 1.4%
7/23 SARB 3.50% 3.75%
7/23 1 8.25% 8.25%
7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 51.9 49.8
7/24 6 4.76m 3.91m
7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 49.3 47.4
7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 47.6 45.2
7/24 4.25% 4.50%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.03 (7/16)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 138 (7/16) 5 : 131
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.89 (7/16)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 442 (7/16) 5 : 357
PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.77 (7/16)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.58 (7/16)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 616 (7/16) 5 : 481
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 558 (7/16) 5 : 453
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.79 (7/16)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.84 (7/16)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 512 (7/16) 5 : 395
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 763 (7/16) 5 : 491
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.36 (7/16)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.82 (7/16)
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 477 (7/16) 5 : 367
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 412 (7/16) 5 : 321
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.19 (7/16)
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.98 (7/16)
/ /
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 770 (7/16) 5 : 581
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 299 (7/16) 5 : 216
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.7 (7/16) 5 : 16.0
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 22.2 (7/16) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 18.5 (7/16) 5 : 14.6
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.3 (7/16) 5 : 16.2
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.8 (7/16) 5 : 11.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.6 (7/16) 5 : 12.0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.6 (7/16) 5 : 17.4
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.8 (7/16) 5 : 12.1
/ /
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 28.00 (7/16) 5 : 17.00
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 46.4 (7/16) 5 : 63.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.1 (7/16) 5 : 65.0
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 483 (7/16) 5 : 383
/ /
PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16
5 1
31.4% 0.7%
28.3% 0.1%
5 1
28.0% 0.9%
30.7% 0.1%
5 1
29.7% 0.8%
29.5% 0.1%
5 1
27.5% 0.5%
25.5% 0.1%
PAGE 22
TR109195
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200717

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 0.6168% 10 -0.465% • 0.93% 39 558 0.74% 21 616 • 0.25% 0.24% 0.17% 0.43% Bloomberg 2020/7/16 0.46 1.54 1.25 1.13 1.32 0.18 1.29 1.84 1.26 1.94 1.41 0.66 1.66 2.31 0.71 0.15 -0.26 -0.22 0.03 0.15 0.17 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.31 0.43 0.45 0.54 0.74 0.93 - - ESG ( ) % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • • S&P 500 2.02% 7,500 600 2.33% DAX 3.09% • 225 1.07% 2 GDP 300 6.70% • 0.71% Bloomberg 2020/7/16 12.50 2.70 6.59 5.67 -1.83 -2.63 8.53 5.61 1.88 1.18 0.83 7.51 3.45 2.91 2.42 4.54 -6.70 -6.01 -3.93 -3.12 -1.17 -0.75 -0.72 -0.29 0.52 0.71 1.07 1.40 1.47 2.02 2.33 3.09 300 H MSCI MSCI RTS MSCI SENSEX MSCI BAML Nikkei 225 BOVESPA MSCI S&P 500 600 DAX % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • IEA OPEC+ 107% OPEC+ 8 970 / 770 / • 7 10 749 ( ) 210 Bloomberg 2020/7/16 0.38 4.68 4.09 3.06 3.33 4.57 3.34 7.91 12.36 5.88 6.18 11.53 -5.30 -2.27 -0.35 -0.33 0.26 0.39 1.59 1.95 2.17 2.41 2.85 3.22 CRB LME LME LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 48 17 13 1 17 • 93 79 15 19 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/7/15 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • Larry Kudlow Trump • 7 Brainard Fed 8 600 8,640 ( 1) • 6 7.5%( 2) 2 Bloomberg 2020/7/16 ( 2) ( ) ( 1)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • ( 1) • 12 Carnival Cruise Line 10 Norwegian Cruise Line • S&P 500 200 S&P 500 2 10.8% EPS -44.6% 3.8% EPS -21.5% Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs J.P Morgan Domino’s Pepsi Netflix Bank of America • 7 11 130 ( 2) 1 17 Bloomberg 2020/7/16 ( 1) ( 2) ( )
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 2% (PEPP) 1.35 Lagarde • 7 ZEW 6 58.6 59.6( 1) 7 ZEW 59.3 • 5 GDP 1.8% 24.0% 9 11 1,100 • -0.1%( 2) 0% 10 3 2020 GDP -4.5% -5.7% ( 1) ZEW ( 2) Bloomberg 2020/7/16
  • 11. PAGE 10 GDP ( 1) GDP ( 2) Bloomberg 2020/7/16 • GDP 2 GDP 3.2%( 1) 2.5% 3.1% 6 4.8% 1.8% • 6 1.81 M2 11.1% 6 3.43 8,099 • 6 (CPI) 6.09% 5.3% • 1 4%( 2) 2016 4
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/7/17 / / 7/20 1 3.85% 3.85% 7/20 5 4.65% 4.65% 7/21 6 4.29 2.61 7/21 6 CPI( ) 0.1% 0.1% 7/21 6 ( ) - -32.0% 7/22 7 PMI( ) - 40.1 7/23 6 3.4% 2.8% 7/23 - 44.3 7/23 7 -11.8 -14.7 7/23 2 GDP( ) -2.1% 1.4% 7/23 SARB 3.50% 3.75% 7/23 1 8.25% 8.25% 7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 51.9 49.8 7/24 6 4.76m 3.91m 7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 49.3 47.4 7/24 7 Markit PMI( ) 47.6 45.2 7/24 4.25% 4.50%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 2.03 (7/16) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 138 (7/16) 5 : 131 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.89 (7/16) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 442 (7/16) 5 : 357
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.77 (7/16) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.58 (7/16) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 616 (7/16) 5 : 481 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 558 (7/16) 5 : 453
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.79 (7/16) 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.84 (7/16) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 512 (7/16) 5 : 395 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 763 (7/16) 5 : 491
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.36 (7/16) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.82 (7/16) / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 477 (7/16) 5 : 367 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 412 (7/16) 5 : 321
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 8.19 (7/16) 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.98 (7/16) / / 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 770 (7/16) 5 : 581 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 299 (7/16) 5 : 216
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 / / 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.7 (7/16) 5 : 16.0 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 22.2 (7/16) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 18.5 (7/16) 5 : 14.6 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 20.3 (7/16) 5 : 16.2
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.8 (7/16) 5 : 11.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 13.6 (7/16) 5 : 12.0 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.6 (7/16) 5 : 17.4 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.8 (7/16) 5 : 12.1 / /
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 28.00 (7/16) 5 : 17.00 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 46.4 (7/16) 5 : 63.8 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.1 (7/16) 5 : 65.0 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 483 (7/16) 5 : 383 / /
  • 22. PAGE 21 Bloomberg * 50% +50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% '15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16 -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/7/16 '16/7/16 '17/7/16 '18/7/16 '19/7/16 '20/7/16 5 1 31.4% 0.7% 28.3% 0.1% 5 1 28.0% 0.9% 30.7% 0.1% 5 1 29.7% 0.8% 29.5% 0.1% 5 1 27.5% 0.5% 25.5% 0.1%
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109195 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • / • • • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898