柏瑞週報 20191025

1. 25 October
2019

3. PAGE 2
•
10
1.7660% 10
-0.404%
•
0.20%
0.19% 464.0
• 0.11%
3.04%
0.35%
1.14%
8.95%
3.14%
Bloomberg 2019/10/24
-0.61
0.00
0.02
0.18
0.06
0.49
0.08
0.29
-0.28
-0.91
-0.54
0.72
1.19
1.48
2.52
-0.04
0.00
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.21
0.21
0.30
0.35
0.49
0.68
1.14
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
( Texas Instrument
Caterpillar) S&P 500 0.41%
•
600 1.09%
•
PMI
225 1.33%
GDP
300
1.39%
BOVESPA 1.88%
•
0.31%
Bloomberg 2019/10/24
-0.78
2.55
-0.20
2.28
1.12
1.47
1.66
2.58
1.93
3.68
2.95
4.59
2.99
5.37
4.57
4.04
-1.39
-0.52
-0.08
0.25
0.31
0.41
0.65
0.88
1.09
1.19
1.33
1.72
1.88
3.04
4.16
4.44
300
H
SENSEX
MSCI
BAML
S&P 500
MSCI
MSCI
600
Nikkei 225
DAX
BOVESPA
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC
• 10 18
170 ( ) 220
Bloomberg EIA 2019/10/24
3.20
7.11
8.99
-2.18
4.36
-1.82
0.29
9.16
1.73
-2.27
-1.86
-1.85
-2.03
-1.81
-0.52
-0.17
0.19
0.81
1.24
2.13
2.46
2.94
3.63
4.26
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 38 36
3 4
21
• 108
61 22
4
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/10/23
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
• 1,000
1 200
2017
31 3000
9 1
11 APEC
•
(William Taylor) (Donald Trump)
Vladimir Zelensky 2020
Joe Biden
11
• IHS Markit 10
PMI 51.5( 1) PMI 51( 2)
2016
Bloomberg 2019/10/24
( 1) Markit PMI
( 2) Markit PMI

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Netflix Liberty Latin America
40
2013 9
• Q3 Refinitiv
83%
4.2% ( 2)
Microsoft Intel Paypal Tesla
3M McDonald’s Amazon Boeing Ford
• (Texas
Instrument)
Q3 Q4
(Caterpillar)
Bloomberg 2019/10/24
( 1)
( 2) S&P 500

10. PAGE 9
• QE Draghi
( 1) 11 1 (QE)
200 Draghi
• Markit PMI 10 PMI
45.7 9
PMI 51.6 51.8 ( 2)
• Boris
Johnson
10 31
Johnson
10 28 12 12
Bloomberg 2019/10/24
QE
( 2) Markit PMI
( 1)

11. PAGE 10
• GDP GDP
6%( 1) 27
7 8
9
• Putin
Erdogan
Trump
•
65 62 56 53 )
8000 Bolsonaro
• GDP 3 GDP
0.4%( 2)
0.1%
0.7% 2%
Bloomberg 2019/10/24
GDP
( 1) GDP
( 2) GDP

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/10/24
/ /
10/29 10 127.8 125.1
10/30 2 GDP( ) 1.6% 2.0%
10/30 10 ADP 132k 135k
10/30 10 0.0k -10.0k
10/31 FOMC ( ) 2.00% 2.00%
10/31 9 0.3% 0.4%
10/31 9 0.3% 0.1%
10/31 3 GDP ( ) 1.0% 1.2%
10/31 10 CPI( ) 0.7% 0.9%
10/31 10 PMI 49.8 49.8
10/31 10 PMI 53.8 53.7
10/31 9 ( ) 0.4% -1.2%
10/31 Selic 5.00% 5.50%
11/1 10 95k 136k
11/1 10 ISM 49.0 47.8
11/1 10 3.6% 3.5%
11/1 10 PMI 51.0 51.4

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 2.91 (10/24)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 110.0 (10/24) 5 : 127.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.07 (10/24)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 333.26 (10/24) 5 : 358.6

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.06 (10/24)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 464.0 (10/24) 5 : 461.2
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.56 (10/24)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 372.0 (10/24) 5 : 441.0

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.83 (10/24)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 377.0 (10/24) 5 : 377.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 7.34 (10/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 566.9 (10/24) 5 : 515.2

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.17 (10/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 329.93 (10/24) 5 : 348.4
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 5.08 (10/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 338.37 (10/24) 5 : 337.6

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.17 (10/24)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 644.0 (10/24) 5 : 565.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 4.39 (10/24)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 270.81 (10/24) 5 : 257.4

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 16.2 (10/24) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 17.4 (10/24) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 14.7 (10/24) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
: 16.6 (10/24) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.6 (10/24) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (10/24) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 19.0 (10/24) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.3 (10/24) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 13.71 (10/24) 5 : 15.19
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
: 69.0 (10/24) 5 : 65.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.2 (10/24) 5 : 67.8
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 334.1 (10/24) 5 : 368.0

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/24 '15/10/24 '16/10/24 '17/10/24 '18/10/24 '19/10/24
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/10/24 '15/10/24 '16/10/24 '17/10/24 '18/10/24 '19/10/24
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/10/24 '15/10/24 '16/10/24 '17/10/24 '18/10/24 '19/10/24
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/10/24 '15/10/24 '16/10/24 '17/10/24 '18/10/24 '19/10/24
5 1
37.7% 0.3%
29.0% 0.0%
5 1
26.2% 0.3%
31.2% 0.1%
5 1
32.0% 0.3%
30.1% 0.1%
5 1
23.5% 0.0%
26.3% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
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