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11 January
2018
PAGE 2
•
10 18.86
2.7421% 10
10.2 0.255%
•
2.90%
2.33%
70.23 486.92
• 1.18%
0.74% 0.42%
2.14%
Bloomberg 2019/1/10
0.97
0.97
0.55
0.14
1.38
1.39
1.42
1.36
1.15
1.55
2.26
1.32
4.61
1.74
1.21
-0.98
-0.67
-0.38
-0.18
0.26
0.36
0.42
0.74
1.03
1.03
1.18
1.25
2.14
2.33
2.90
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
Powell
S&P 500 5
6.08% NASDAQ
8.08%
•
600 4.48%
•
2019
225 0.74%
•
2.87% H 5.68%
• 13 6.03%
2.10%
Bloomberg 2019/1/10
-4.98
3.28
2.99
0.76
9.18
-1.91
2.92
2.82
1.81
0.51
13.10
3.73
1.88
0.64
1.18
-1.56
0.74
1.67
2.10
2.40
2.45
2.87
4.48
4.85
5.06
5.11
5.17
5.17
5.19
5.58
5.68
6.08
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
BOVESPA
600
DAX
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
H
500
% %
PAGE 4
•
(OPEC)
• 1 4
168 ( )
Bloomberg EIA 2019/1/10
-2.02
-0.33
3.39
-2.19
-3.97
-8.80
-2.61
-4.43
4.17
-1.68
2.85
3.12
-0.92
-0.66
-0.59
0.00
1.42
2.85
3.38
3.45
3.45
4.11
10.24
11.68
LME
LME
LME
LME
CRB
% %
PAGE 5
• 1 9 62
6 8
24 13
1
• 72 14
17 16 15
24
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/1/10
PAGE 7
• Powell
Clarida
Powell
12
FOMC
• 12
31.2 18.4
11 17.6 ( 1)
3.9%
62.9% 63.1%
3.2%
• PMI (ISM) 12
(PMI) 57.6
58.5 ( 2)
• Trump
Bloomberg 2019/1/10
( 1)
( 2) ISM (PMI)
PAGE 8
•
3%( 1)
7% ( 2)
• GE GE( )
Apollo
Global Management GE
400
• Ford Volkswagen
Ford
Ford
Volkswagen
• PG&E PG&E(
) PG&E
S&P Moody’s
PG&E
Bloomberg 2019/1/10
2019
( 2)
( 1)
PAGE 9
• 12
(TLTRO)
• 1/15
May
May
B
• 11
1% 0.1% 10
+0.2% 11 1.9%
0.3%
• 12
(PMI) 51.0 11 52.3
PMI 11 52.4 52.0
Bloomberg 2019/1/10
PAGE 10
•
•
(MLF) 1/15 1/25 0.5
2019 MLF
8,000
• Bolsonaro
Onyx Lorenzoni 2
3%
Bloomberg 2019/1/10
( 1)
( 2)
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2019/1/10
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 148.0 (1/10) 5 : 125.6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.20 (1/10)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.03 (1/10)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 328.29 (1/10) 5 : 319.9
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.14 (1/10)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 486.9 (1/10) 5 : 453.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.23 (1/10)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 445.0 (1/10) 5 : 438.1
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.24 (1/10)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 503.0 (1/10) 5 : 366.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.57 (1/10)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 596.2 (1/10) 5 : 506.5
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.64 (1/10)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 387.83 (1/10) 5 : 339.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 6.18 (1/10)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 352.09 (1/10) 5 : 332.3
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 8.15 (1/10)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 549.0 (1/10) 5 : 571.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.48 (1/10)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 286.88 (1/10) 5 : 255.5
PAGE 18
Bloomberg
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.1 (1/10) 5 : 16.6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.3 (1/10) 5 : 17.5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.7 (1/10) 5 : 15.4
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 14.6 (1/10) 5 : 17.5
PAGE 19
Bloomberg
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.2 (1/10) 5 : 12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 9.6 (1/10) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 20.9 (1/10) 5 : 18.2
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.6 (1/10) 5 : 12.7
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 19.50 (1/10) 5 : 14.93
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 56.6 (1/10) 5 : 65.2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 63.3 (1/10) 5 : 71.7
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 401.5 (1/10) 5 : 365.2
PAGE 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
'14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10
2019/1/10
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR108008
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
101 013
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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Global market review and analysis

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 18.86 2.7421% 10 10.2 0.255% • 2.90% 2.33% 70.23 486.92 • 1.18% 0.74% 0.42% 2.14% Bloomberg 2019/1/10 0.97 0.97 0.55 0.14 1.38 1.39 1.42 1.36 1.15 1.55 2.26 1.32 4.61 1.74 1.21 -0.98 -0.67 -0.38 -0.18 0.26 0.36 0.42 0.74 1.03 1.03 1.18 1.25 2.14 2.33 2.90 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • Powell S&P 500 5 6.08% NASDAQ 8.08% • 600 4.48% • 2019 225 0.74% • 2.87% H 5.68% • 13 6.03% 2.10% Bloomberg 2019/1/10 -4.98 3.28 2.99 0.76 9.18 -1.91 2.92 2.82 1.81 0.51 13.10 3.73 1.88 0.64 1.18 -1.56 0.74 1.67 2.10 2.40 2.45 2.87 4.48 4.85 5.06 5.11 5.17 5.17 5.19 5.58 5.68 6.08 Nikkei 225 SENSEX BOVESPA 600 DAX MSCI RTS MSCI MSCI MSCI MSCI H 500 % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • (OPEC) • 1 4 168 ( ) Bloomberg EIA 2019/1/10 -2.02 -0.33 3.39 -2.19 -3.97 -8.80 -2.61 -4.43 4.17 -1.68 2.85 3.12 -0.92 -0.66 -0.59 0.00 1.42 2.85 3.38 3.45 3.45 4.11 10.24 11.68 LME LME LME LME CRB % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 1 9 62 6 8 24 13 1 • 72 14 17 16 15 24 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/1/10
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 • Powell Clarida Powell 12 FOMC • 12 31.2 18.4 11 17.6 ( 1) 3.9% 62.9% 63.1% 3.2% • PMI (ISM) 12 (PMI) 57.6 58.5 ( 2) • Trump Bloomberg 2019/1/10 ( 1) ( 2) ISM (PMI)
  • 9. PAGE 8 • 3%( 1) 7% ( 2) • GE GE( ) Apollo Global Management GE 400 • Ford Volkswagen Ford Ford Volkswagen • PG&E PG&E( ) PG&E S&P Moody’s PG&E Bloomberg 2019/1/10 2019 ( 2) ( 1)
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 12 (TLTRO) • 1/15 May May B • 11 1% 0.1% 10 +0.2% 11 1.9% 0.3% • 12 (PMI) 51.0 11 52.3 PMI 11 52.4 52.0 Bloomberg 2019/1/10
  • 11. PAGE 10 • • (MLF) 1/15 1/25 0.5 2019 MLF 8,000 • Bolsonaro Onyx Lorenzoni 2 3% Bloomberg 2019/1/10 ( 1) ( 2)
  • 12.
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE 10 (%) (bp) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 148.0 (1/10) 5 : 125.6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.20 (1/10) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.03 (1/10) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 328.29 (1/10) 5 : 319.9
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.14 (1/10) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 486.9 (1/10) 5 : 453.9 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.23 (1/10) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 445.0 (1/10) 5 : 438.1 (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.24 (1/10) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 503.0 (1/10) 5 : 366.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 8.57 (1/10) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 596.2 (1/10) 5 : 506.5
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.64 (1/10) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 387.83 (1/10) 5 : 339.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 6.18 (1/10) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 352.09 (1/10) 5 : 332.3
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 8.15 (1/10) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 549.0 (1/10) 5 : 571.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 5.48 (1/10) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 286.88 (1/10) 5 : 255.5
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 14.1 (1/10) 5 : 16.6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 15.3 (1/10) 5 : 17.5 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 12.7 (1/10) 5 : 15.4 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 14.6 (1/10) 5 : 17.5
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.2 (1/10) 5 : 12.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 9.6 (1/10) 5 : 12.6 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 20.9 (1/10) 5 : 18.2 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 11.6 (1/10) 5 : 12.7
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 19.50 (1/10) 5 : 14.93 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : 56.6 (1/10) 5 : 65.2 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 63.3 (1/10) 5 : 71.7 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 401.5 (1/10) 5 : 365.2
  • 22. PAGE 21 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% '14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% '14/1/10 '15/1/10 '16/1/10 '17/1/10 '18/1/10 '19/1/10 2019/1/10 * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR108008 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 101 013 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898