#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
07th
Feb’2017
HighLights:
The U.S. dollar pushed higher against a currency basket on Monday
but gains were held in check after data showing a slowdown in U.S.
wage growth in January dampened expectations for a faster rate of
interest rate hikes this year.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength
against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.26% to
99.95.
While Friday’s employment report showed that jobs growth beat ex-
pectations, wage growth remained tepid, which will likely prompt the
Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach on raising interest
rates.
According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool less than 10% of
traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its next meeting in
March. The chance of a June increase is seen at just below 50%.
Last week, the Fed stuck to its view that the economy is strengthening, but gave no clear signal on the timing of its next rate
hike as officials wait to assess the possible economic impact of the Trump administration’s protectionist policies and recent
remarks about currencies. Data also showed that U.S. average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in January, disappointing expecta-
tions for an increase of 0.3%.
The greenback has been hard hit by concerns that a preference for a weak dollar could have a prominent role to play in
Trump's 'America First' agenda.
In the euro zone, data on Monday showed that German factory growth hit a two-and-a-half year high in January, with factory
orders jumping by 5.2%. It was the strongest increase since January 2014.
The Australian dollar slid lower after disappointing domestic retail sales data, with AUD/USD down 0.25% at 0.7661.
The dollar was little changed against the yen, with USD/JPY at 112.62, not far from last Thursday’s lows of 112.04, the weakest
since November 30.
The major extends its losing streak into a third day today, as falling treasury yields continue to weigh, particularly after unim-
pressive US jobs report. The spot was last seen exchanging hands at session lows of 112.38, losing -0.22% on the day. While
the shorter duration treasury yields drop -1.30% to -1.70%.
Moreover, the Japanese equities pared gains and trade muted, which also added to the downbeat sentiment seen around
USD/JPY. Looking ahead, the major will continue to track the price-action in the US treasury yields closely, as the US docket
remains data light, with the only LMCI on tap.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 99.92 99.69 0.23 0.23
USD/INR(Spot) 67.20 67.15 0.05 0.07
USD/INR(NseFeb) 67.34 67.46 (0.12) (0.18)
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.19 72.45 (0.26) (0.36)
EUR/INR(NseFeb) 72.40 72.52 (0.12) (0.17)
GBP/INR(Spot) 83.88 83.82 0.06 0.07
GBP/INR(NseFeb) 84.12 84.24 (0.12) (0.14)
JPY/INR(NseFeb) 59.73 60.11 (0.38) (0.64)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On the hourly chart, the pair has given the breakdown of
its rising trend line at 60 levels.
The pair has been trading in horizontal channel pattern
from past few weeks and price has faced the resistance
of its upper band at 60.50 levels on the hourly chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 DSMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator, RSI is trading below
60 levels which indicate downside momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover which suggests lack of strength in the
prices on the hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one can JPYINR sell in the
range of 59.90 with SL of 60.20 for the target of 59.30
levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given the breakdown of its horizontal chan-
nel pattern and prices have been retested its breakdown
trend line channel pattern at 68 levels on 4 hourly
charts.
On the hourly chart, the pair has given the breakdown
of its rising trend line at 68.20 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 HSMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has shown bearish range
shift at 45 levels, which suggest further negative mo-
mentum can be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover and moving above its signal line on 4
hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one can sell USDINR in range
67.50 with SL of 67.80 for the target of 67.
Currency Highlights
07th
Feb’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.10 67.22 67.28 67.34 67.40 67.46 67.58
JPYINR 59.42 59.65 59.77 59.88 60.00 60.11 60.34

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
07th
Feb’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has given the breakdown of its rising channel
pattern and price have been almost retested its break-
down channel pattern at 85.50 levels on the daily chart.
The pair has been trading below its 21 HSMA on the
hourly chart, which suggests further weakness can be
seen in the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator, RSI has been mov-
ing below 50 levels on the hourly chart, which suggest
bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on the hourly chart, which supports our bear-
ish view to the prices.
For now, we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 71.70 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has given the breakdown of its rising channel
pattern and price have been almost retested its break-
down channel pattern at 85.50 levels on the daily chart.
The prices have given the breakdown of its horizontal
trend line at 86 levels on the daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DSMA,
which suggest short term trend looks down.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive crossover on a daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indicator RSI has been trading below
60 levels on the daily chart, which suggest the possibili-
ties of further downside momentum in the prices.
For now, we expect prices should move lower to-
wards 83.20 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.49 83.78 83.95 84.07 84.24 84.36 84.65
EURINR 74.17 73.50 72.95 72.83 72.28 72.16 71.49

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
07th
Feb’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
07.02.17 01:15 PM French Trade Balance -4.4B -4.2B Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
07.02.17 07:00 PM Trade Balance -45.2B -45.0B Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
07.02.17 08:30 PM JOLTS Job Openings 5.52M 5.56M Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
07th
Feb’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com,
c=IN
Date: 2017.02.06 22:16:58 +05'30'