The Indian rupee plunged to its lowest level since mid-March against the US dollar, while UK retail sales increased in the last month, but the US Philly Fed manufacturing index declined; technical analyses indicate support levels and bullish trends for various currency pairs like USDINR, GBPINR and JPYINR in the near term, with economic indicators from the US also expected to impact currencies.

1. Currency Highlights
20th
May’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee plunged to lowest level since 15th
Mar’16 on Thursday
 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to negative 1.8-mark in
May
 UK’s Retail Sales increased by 1.3 percent in the last month
 US Unemployment Claims fell by 16,000 to 278,000 for w/e on 13th
May’16
Indian Rupee continued to be under pressure and declined for sixth con-
secutive day to depreciate sharply by 39 paise to end 67.36 against the US
dollar on Thursday. The currency had depreciated on account of fresh dol-
lar demand from oil importers and banks. Additionally, concerns over
outflow of the foreign capital coupled with stronger dollar index led to
negative movement in the currency. Further, downside in the domestic
market sentiments kept pressure on the currency. Indian Rupee moved in
the range of 67.23 to 67.49 in Thursday’s trading session. The Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) reference rate for dollar was seen at 66.91 .
US Dollar Index gained around 0.25 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market senti-
ments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, statement from the Federal Reserve meeting
minutes on Wednesday hinting towards a hike rate in June saw an upside in the currency.
However, mixed economic data from the country capped sharp gains in the currency.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to negative 1.8-mark in May as against a decline of 1.6-level in April. Unemploy-
ment Claims fell by 16,000 to 278,000 for the week ending on 13th
May’16 from a rise of 294,000 in previous week. The Con-
ference Board (CB) Leading Index rose by 0.6 percent in the month of April.
Euro against dollar plunged around 0.13 percent on Thursday on account of weak global market sentiments. Further, strength
in the dollar index kept pressure on the currency.
The Sterling Pound rose marginally in Thursday’s trade on account of favourable economic data from the country.
However, fall in the global market sentiments in later part of the trade along with strength in the dollar index capped sharp
gains in the currency.
UK’s Retail Sales increased by 1.3 percent in April as against a decline of 0.5 percent in March.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trade due to rise in risk aversion in global mar-
ket sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
However, favourable economic data from the country prevented sharp fall in the currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.23 95.2 0.03 0.03
USD/INR(Spot) 67.37 67.16 0.21 0.31
USD/INR(NseMay) 67.47 67.10 0.37 0.55
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.49 75.36 0.13 0.17
EUR/INR(NseMay) 75.69 75.75 (0.06) (0.08)
GBP/INR(Spot) 98.57 98.02 0.55 0.56
GBP/INR(NseMay) 98.65 97.40 1.25 1.27
JPY/INR(NseMay) 61.42 61.38 0.04 0.07
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has been taking support of rising trend line
at 61 levels on hourly chart. Prices have been taking support
of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels form its previous rally of
58 to 63 levels.
Moreover, Pair has been trading above its 21 hourly exponen-
tial moving average which suggest short term trend remains
up.
On hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above
its 45 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
Bullish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 61.60 lev-
els in coming trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has shown breakout of its rectangle pattern triangle
at 67 levels on daily chart with heavy volumes. The pair has
given breakout of its head and shoulder neckline pattern at
67.05 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, price have been trading above its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term trend re-
mains positive. So any dips in the prices lower towards 67.20
level, used as buying opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 60 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
Momentum indictor MACD has shown positive crossover and
trading above single line on hourly chart, which gives posi-
tive confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.70 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
20th
May’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.79 67.08 67.28 67.37 67.57 67.66 67.95
JPYINR 60.44 60.87 61.13 61.30 61.56 61.73 62.16

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
20th
May’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has given breakdown of its rising trend line at 75.80
levels and price has retested the breakdown trend line at
75.80 levels. Price has given breakdown of its symmetrical
triangle pattern on 4 hourly chart at 76 levels. On the other
hand, Pair has been trading below its 50 hourly exponential
moving average which indicates that trend is remains weak.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 60 lev-
els on 4 hourly chart which gives bearishness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on four hourly chart which support our bearish
view on the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 75.30
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has given breakout of its falling channel pattern
with bolstering volumes on daily chart. Moreover, price has
formed long bullish candle stick on daily chart which gives
positive confirmation to the prices.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 21 hourly
exponential moving average which indicates that short term
trend is remains bullish.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 60 lev-
els on daily chart which gives bullishness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart and traded above of its signal line
which support our bullish view on the pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 96.70 97.57 98.12 98.44 98.99 99.31 100.18
EURINR 75.18 75.40 75.53 75.62 75.75 75.84 76.06

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
20.05.16 Day 1 G7 Meetings
20.05.16 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.33M 5.40M Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
20th
May’2016

5. Currency Highlights
20th
May’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.05.20 08:43:55 +05'30'