How will interest rates and commodity prices, coupled with geopolitical instability, affect the market?

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios
A p r i l 2 0 2 4
Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™ and Sr. Portfolio Manager Nick
Codola, CFA, CAIA
Featuring State Street’s Chief Gold Strategist George Milling-Stanley

2. The Yellow Metal
S+P 500
5460
+10%
Gold
1920
-20%
10-Year Treasury
3.90
-75bps
S+P 500
4965
Flat
Gold
2640
+10%
10-Year Treasury
4.65
Flat
S+P 500
3970
-20%
Gold
2880
+20%
10-Year Treasury
4.15
-50bps
Banks
Stabilize /
Recession
Avoided
GOOD
BASELINE
BAD
Geopolitical
Tension
Tensions
Escalate
Decreased inflation
Central banks decrease gold
purchases
Fed cuts rates 1-3 times
Inflation remains sticky
Oil prices increase
Mild Recession and Fed rate
cuts

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from its use.
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