1. Currency Highlights
22nd
Juneโ2016
HighLights:
๏ท Indian Rupee plunged for second consecutive day in Tuesdayโs trade
๏ท Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 20.2-level in current
month
๏ท UKโs Public Sector Net Borrowing was at surplus of 9.1 bn Pounds in
May
๏ท Japanโs Industries Activity increased by 1.3 percent in month of April
Indian Rupee plunged for second consecutive day and declined by 17 paise
to end at 67.48 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The currency declined on
account of RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan on Saturday said no to a second
term in the post, likelihood of Britain choosing to leave the European Un-
ion and upcoming redemptions of foreign currency non-resident deposits.
Further, constant dollar demand from banks and importers along with
weakness in the equities led to downside movement in the currency. Addi-
tionally, outflow of foreign capital kept pressure on the currency.
Additionally, outflow of foreign capital kept pressure on the currency. According to the provisional data released by the stock
exchanges, foreign portfolio investors and foreign institutional investors sold shares worth a net Rs 537.46 crore on Monday.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 67.35 to 67.55 in Tuesdayโs trading session. The domestic currency has dropped 40 paise
or 0.60 per cent in last two trades. The RBI fixed the reference rate for the dollar was seen at 67.47 and euro was at 76.45.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee dropped further against the pound sterling to end at 99.47 from 98.49 on Monday and also
moved down further against the euro to 76.41 fom 76.25. The domestic currency declined against the Japanese yen to 64.44
per 100 yens from 64.37.
US Dollar Index gained around 0.5 percent in Tuesdayโs trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments
in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
Euro against dollar declined around 0.6 percent on Tuesday on account of weak market sentiments in early part of the trade
coupled with strength in the dollar index. However, favourable economic data from the region cushioned sharp negative
movement in the currency. German ZEW Economic Sentiment surged by 12.8 points to 19.2-mark in June with respect to rise
of 6.4-level in May. Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped by 3.4 points to 20.2-level in current month from 16.8-mark
in May.
The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.24 percent in Tuesdayโs trade on account of unfavourable economic data from the coun-
try. Further, strength in the dollar index coupled with weak global market sentiments in early part of the trade led to negative
movement in the currency. UKโs Public Sector Net Borrowing was at a surplus of 9.1 billion Pounds in May as against a surplus
of 7.6 billion Pounds in April. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations drop to negative 2-mark in
June from negative 8-level in May.
SEBI Certified โ Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 93.5 93.68 (0.18) (0.19)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.51 67.45 0.06 0.09
USD/INR(NseJune) 67.59 67.39 0.20 0.30
EUR/INR(Spot) 76.59 76.47 0.12 0.16
EUR/INR(NseJune) 76.71 76.41 0.30 0.39
GBP/INR(Spot) 99.64 99.10 0.54 0.54
GBP/INR(NseJune) 99.68 98.63 1.05 1.05
JPY/INR(NseJune) 64.64 64.41 0.23 0.36
MarketHighlights
2. Technical View:
The pair has given breakout of its horizontal trend line at 64
levels on daily chart. The JPYINR price has been trading in rec-
tangle pattern form past few weeks and price has shown
breakout of its resistance which is upper band of channel
pattern at 63.30 levels on daily chart. On daily chart, price has
shown breakout of rising wedge pattern at 64 levels.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
21 day exponential moving average which gives the positive
confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above 60
levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bull-
ish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 65.10 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been trading in its rising channel formation
from past few months and price has taken support of its of its
lower band of channel pattern at 67 levels on daily chart.
Price has formed piercing candle stick pattern on daily chart,
which is bullish pattern.
Moreover, price have been trading above of its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains up.
So any dips in the prices towards 67.15 level, used as buying
opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover on
daily chart, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.75 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
22nd
Juneโ2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified โ Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.17 67.36 67.48 67.55 67.67 67.74 67.93
JPYINR 64.01 64.34 64.49 64.67 64.82 65.00 65.33
3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
22nd
Juneโ2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has given breakout of its symmetrical triangle
pattern at 76.45 levels on daily chart with bolstering vol-
umes. The EURINR has been trading rising channel pattern
and taking support of lower band of channel pattern at
75.80 levels.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains up.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 60 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bullishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards 77.10
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The prices have been moving in rectangle formation form
past few months and price has shown breakout of its rectan-
gle pattern at 99 levels on daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that short term
trend is remains bullish.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 62 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
100.10 levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified โ Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 97.15 98.32 99.00 99.49 100.17 100.66 101.83
EURINR 76.06 76.34 76.51 76.62 76.79 76.90 77.18
4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified โ Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
22.06.16 12:00am FOMC Member Powell Speaks
22.06.16 7:30pm Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
22.06.16 7:30pm Existing Home Sales 5.45M 5.53M Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
22.06.16 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M
22nd
Juneโ2016
5. Currency Highlights
22nd
Juneโ2016
SEBI Certified โ Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.06.22 08:53:13 +05'30'
