The Indian rupee depreciated marginally against the US dollar to close at 66.97 due to month-end dollar demand and cautiousness ahead of central bank minutes, while gains were capped by upbeat domestic market sentiment; key economic data from Germany, the UK, and the US supported risk appetite and buoyed currencies. Technical analyses indicate support levels and potential upside momentum for the rupee, yen, and pound, while the euro and pound face resistance levels and potential downside.

1. Currency Highlights
23rd
Feb’2017
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee retreated from highs to 66.97 on Wednesday
 US Existing Home Sales gained to 5.69 million in January
 German Ifo Business Climate surged to 111-mark in February
 UK’s Second Estimate GDP grew by 0.7 percent in Q4 of 2016
Indian Rupee retreated from its high and depreciated marginally
around 4 paise to end at 66.97 against the US dollar on Wednesday.
The currency depreciated on account of month end dollar demand
from importers and banks along with investors remained cautious
ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s release of minutes, which was
due after 5pm on Wednesday and US Federal Reserve minutes in late
night. Since the beginning of this year, the rupee has gained 1.49%,
while foreign institutional investors have bought $1.28 billion and
$580.70 million from local equity and debt markets, respectively.
However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of
upbeat domestic market sentiments. Indian Rupee moved in the range
of 66.88 to 67.01 in Wednesday’s trade.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 66.9644 and Euro stood at 70.5403 as on 22nd
Feb’17. For the month of February2017, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.9107.90crores ($1356.51 million) as on 22ndFeb-
ruary 2017. Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs.7931.30crores ($1183.70 million) as on 22ndFebruary2017.
US Dollar Index dropped around 0.2 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the
currency was cushioned as a result of favourable economic data from the country. US Existing Home Sales gained by 0.18 mil-
lion to 5.69 million in January as against a rise of 5.51 million a month ago.
Euro against dollar gained around 0.2 percent on Wednesday on account of weakness in the dollar index coupled with favour-
able economic data from the region. However, weak global market sentiments in later part of the trade prevented further pos-
itive movement in the currency.
German Ifo Business Climate surged by 1.2 points to 111-mark in February as against a rise of 109.8-level in January. Euro Zone
Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged at 1.8 percent in January. Euro Zone Final Core CPI also unchanged at 0.9 percent
in previous month.
The Sterling Pound fell around 0.2 percent in Wednesday’s trade on account of weak global market sentiments in later part of
the trade. However, favourable economic data from the country along with weakness in the dollar index cushioned sharp fall
in the currency. UK’s Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.7 percent in Q4 of 2016 as against a rise
of 0.6 percent in earlier quarter. Prelim Business Investment plunged by 1 percent in fourth quarter of last year from a rise of
0.4 percent in Q3 of 2016.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.34 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in
global market sentiments in later part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.57 101.4 0.17 0.17
USD/INR(Spot) 66.99 66.89 0.10 0.15
USD/INR(NseFeb) 66.98 66.95 0.03 0.04
EUR/INR(Spot) 70.43 70.58 (0.15) (0.21)
EUR/INR(NseFeb) 70.40 71.15 (0.75) (1.07)
GBP/INR(Spot) 83.37 83.43 (0.06) (0.07)
GBP/INR(NseFeb) 83.42 83.51 (0.09) (0.11)
JPY/INR(NseFeb) 59.44 59.06 0.38 0.64
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On a daily chart, the pair has taken the support of its ris-
ing channel pattern at 58.20 levels.
The pair has been trading in horizontal channel pattern
from past few weeks and price has taken the support of
its lower band at 58.50 levels on the daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21HSMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator, RSI is trading above
45 levels which indicate upside momentum can be seen
in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover which suggests strength in the prices on
the daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one can JPYINR buy in the
range of 59.25 with SL of 58.90 for the target of 59.85
levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in falling channel pattern from
past few weeks and price has taken the support of its
lower band of channel pattern at 66.70 levels on the
hourly chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 HSMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has taken support at 30 lev-
els, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown pos-
itive crossover and moving above its signal line on an
hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one can buy USDINR in range
66.90 with SL of 66.70 for the target of 67.30.
Currency Highlights
23rd
Feb’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.66 66.81 66.89 66.96 67.04 67.11 67.26
JPYINR 58.51 58.85 59.07 59.19 59.41 59.53 59.87

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
23rd
Feb’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The prices have been trading in falling channel pattern
from past few months and price has faced the re-
sistance of its upper band of channel pattern at 73 lev-
els on a daily chart.
The pair has been trading below its 21 DSMA on the
hourly chart, which suggests further weakness can be
seen in the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator, RSI has been mov-
ing below 50 levels on the hourly chart, which suggests
bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on the hourly chart, which supports our bear-
ish view on the prices.
For now, we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 69.60 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in symmetrical triangle for-
mation from past few weeks and price has faced the
resistance of its upper band of the pattern at 85.80 lev-
els on the daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DSMA,
which suggest short term trend looks down.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive crossover on a daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indicator RSI has been trading below
60 levels on the daily chart, which suggest the possibili-
ties of further downside momentum in the prices.
For now, we expect prices should move lower to-
wards 82.50 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 79.39 79.79 76.60 80.19 77.00 80.59 80.99
EURINR 69.63 70.07 70.24 70.51 70.68 70.95 71.39

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
23rd
Feb’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
23.02.17 12:30 AM FOMC Meeting Minutes More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency;
23.02.17 07:00 PM Unemployment Claims 239K 242K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
23.02.17 09:30 PM Crude Oil Inventories 9.5M

5. Currency Highlights
23rd
Feb’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2017.02.23 08:34:21 +05'30'