The Indian rupee depreciated against the US dollar due to dollar demand from importers and banks, while weak domestic market sentiments also put pressure on the currency. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI surged in February and German retail sales plunged in January, affecting movements in the dollar, euro, and other currencies. Technical analyses are provided for various currency pairs like USDINR, EURINR, and GBPINR along with economic indicators to watch that could impact the currencies.

1. Currency Highlights
06th
March’2017
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee retreated from its high to 66.81 on Friday
 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI surged to 57.6-mark in Feb
 German Retail Sales plunged by 0.8 percent in January
 UK’s Services PMI dropped to 53.3-mark in February
Indian Rupee retreated from its high and depreciated around 10 paise to end
at 66.81 against the US dollar on Friday. The currency depreciated on account
of dollar demand from importers and banks. Further, weak domestic market
sentiments kept pressure on the currency. Traders are cautious ahead of the
Fed chair Janet Yellen and Vice-chairperson Stanely Fischer’s speech later in
the day which may give cues on a possible interest rate hike. However, con-
tinued inflow of foreign funds cushioned sharp fall in the currency. So far this
year, the rupee has gained 1.6%, while foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
have bought $1.54 billion and $539.80 million from local equity and debt
markets, respectively. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.79 to 66.89 in
Friday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the
dollar was seen at 66.8354 and Euro stood at 70.3509 as on 3rd
Mar’17.
For the month of March 2017, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.961.07 crores ($144.02 million) as on 3rd
March 2017. Year to date ba-
sis, net capital outflows stood at Rs.9686.65 crores ($1446.46 million) as on 3rd
March 2017.
US Dollar Index plunged around 0.64 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to
decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, favourable economic data from the country cushioned sharp negative move-
ment in the currency.
US Final Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell marginally to 53.8-mark in February as against a rise of 53.9-level in January. The
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing PMI surged by 1.1 points to 57.6-mark in February from 56.5-level a month
ago.
Euro against dollar gained by more than 1 percent on Friday on account of weakness in the dollar index coupled with mixed economic data
from the region. Moreover, upbeat global market sentiments kept the currency in positive territory.
German Retail Sales plunged by 0.8 percent in the month of January. Spanish Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 3.5
points to 57.7-mark in February as against a rise of 54.2-level in January. Italian Services PMI rose by 1.7 points to 54.1-level in last month
from 52.4-mark in January. French Final Services PMI dropped marginally to 56.4-mark in February when compared to 56.7-level in January.
German Final Services PMI remained unchanged at 54.4-level in February. Euro Zone Retail Sales fell by 0.1 percent in January with respect
to decline of 0.5 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound grew around 0.23 percent in Friday’s trade on account of weaker dollar along with upbeat global market sentiments.
However, unfavourable economic data from the country restricted sharp gains in the currency.
UK’s Services PMI dropped by 1.2 points to 53.3-mark in February from 54.5-level in January.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.34 percent in Friday’s trading session due to favourable economic data from the
country. However, rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency capped
sharp gains in the Yen.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 102 102.13 (0.13) (0.13)
USD/INR(Spot) 66.85 66.81 0.04 0.06
USD/INR(NseMar.) 66.99 66.90 0.09 0.13
EUR/INR(Spot) 70.43 70.17 0.26 0.37
EUR/INR(NseMar.) 70.74 70.53 0.21 0.30
GBP/INR(Spot) 81.71 82.01 (0.30) (0.37)
GBP/INR(NseMar.) 82.01 82.23 (0.22) (0.27)
JPY/INR(NseMar.) 58.60 58.61 (0.01) (0.02)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On a daily chart, the pair has given a breakdown of its
rising channel pattern at 59.10 levels.
The pair has shown a breakdown of its rising trend line
at 59.20 levels on a daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21HSMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator, RSI is trading below
50 levels which indicate more downside momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover which suggests a lack of strength in the
prices on a daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one can sell JPYINR in the
range of 58.80 with SL of 59.10 for the target of 58.20
levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in falling channel pattern from
past few weeks and price has taken the support of its
lower band of channel pattern at 66.70 levels on the
hourly chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 HSMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has taken support at 30 lev-
els, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown pos-
itive crossover and moving above its signal line on an
hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one can buy USDINR in the
range of 66.90 with SL of 66.65 for the target of 67.40
levels.
Currency Highlights
06th
March’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.83 66.92 66.96 67.01 67.05 67.10 67.19
JPYINR 58.20 58.44 58.53 58.68 58.77 58.92 59.16

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
06th
March’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has taken the support of its horizontal trend
line at 70.30 levels o daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 10 HSMA on the
hourly chart, which suggests further positive momen-
tum can be seen in the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator, RSI has been tak-
ing support at 35 levels on a daily chart, which suggests
bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on the hourly chart, which supports our bullish
view on the prices.
For now, we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 71.40 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in symmetrical triangle for-
mation from past few weeks and price has given a
breakdown of its lower band of the pattern at 82.60 lev-
els on a daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DSMA,
which suggest short term trend looks down.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive crossover on a daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indicator RSI has been trading below
50 levels on the daily chart, which suggest the possibili-
ties of further downside momentum in the prices.
For now, we expect prices should move lower to-
wards 81.20 levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 81.20 81.66 81.84 82.12 82.30 82.58 83.04
EURINR 70.35 70.52 70.63 70.69 70.80 70.86 71.03

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
06th
March’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
06.03.17 02:40 pm Retail PMI 50.1 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
06.03.17 08:30 pm Factory Orders m/m 1.3% 1.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
06th
March’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department,
email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2017.03.04 17:42:33 +05'30'