#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
22nd
Nov’2016
HighLights:
Over the past five weeks, this column has urged hedging of foreign
currency exposures. The arguments were simple. Notwithstanding
positive flows, the world looks uncertain, the rupee is overvalued in
real effective exchange rate (Reer) terms, and there is an overhang of
unhedged exposures in India. Given the events of the past two weeks,
and despite the 2.3% move up in USDINR since, this recommendation
stands.
The dollar remained within close distance of a 14-year peak against
the other major currencies on Monday, as overall optimism over the
U.S. economy since Donald Trump’s election and expectations for an
upcoming rate hike continued to support the greenback.
The greenback has remained supported amid expectations that Presi-
dent-elect Donald Trump’s plans to ramp up fiscal spending and cut
taxes will spur economic growth and inflation.
The Federal Reserve was on center stage on Thursday, as Fed Chair Yellen’s appeared before a congressional committee.
Yellen did not explicitly acknowledge that the Fed would raise rates at the December 13-14 policy meeting, but she did say
that the rate hike would be “relatively soon”. Yellen make no mention of Donald Trump’s potential policies, which could in-
clude greater fiscal spending, as she reiterated that future rate hikes should be “gradual”. The odds of a rate hike next month
currently stand at 95 percent. Commenting on Yellen’s testimony, Jonathan Wright, a former Fed economist, summed up mar-
ket sentiment – “a rate hike in December is a done deal, barring a significant surprise in the next jobs numbers or in financial
markets”. The U.S. dollar has also been boosted by bets that the U.S. central bank will almost certainly raise interest rates next
month.
GBP/USD has started the trading week with strong gains. In the North American session, the pair is trading at the 1.25 line. On
the release front, there are no indicators out of the UK or the US. On Tuesday, the UK will release Public Sector Net Borrowing
and CBI Industrial Expectations.
The Japanese Yen remained under pressure against a “Trump-trade” supported US Dollar, reacting little to news that Japan’s
trade surplus remained broadly stable even though markets had expected a rise. .
The Ministry of Finance reported a merchandise trade surplus of 496.2 billion yen ($4.5 billion) in October, just below Septem-
ber’s 498.3 billion Yen figure. Japanese exports fell 10.3% in the twelve months through October, with imports down 16.5%.
The trade picture has brightened a little in recent months. A weaker Yen has probably played a part in the revival of manufac-
turing output for export.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.04 101.28 (0.24) (0.24)
USD/INR(Spot) 68.14 68.16 (0.02) (0.03)
USD/INR(NseNov) 68.15 68.17 (0.02) (0.03)
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.49 72.21 0.28 0.39
EUR/INR(NseNov) 72.51 72.42 0.09 0.12
GBP/INR(Spot) 84.07 84.11 (0.04) (0.05)
GBP/INR(NseNov) 84.11 84.72 (0.61) (0.73)
JPY/INR(NseNov) 61.58 61.80 (0.22) (0.36)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, the JPYINR price has completed a “Bullish
Anti-Cypher Harmonic Pattern” at 61.20 levels, the co-
ordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 62 to 67.80 ,AB
of the leg completed at 64 (i.e.61.80%% of XA leg.) ,BC of
the leg completed at 67.20 (i.e. 78.60% of AB leg.) and
CD of the leg completed at 61.20 levels (i.e. 127.20% of
XA and 224% Fibonacci Projection of BC leg.).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading near
its oversold zone at 33 levels which suggest further bull-
ishness can be seen in the prices.
So for trading perspective, one could use buy in the
range of 61.50 with SL of 61.10 for target of 62.20 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given breakout of its falling channel pattern
at 67.10 levels on daily chart. On daily USDINR prices
have shown breakout of its falling trend line at 67.20
levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has traded above 50 levels,
which suggest further positive momentum can be seen
in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown pos-
itive crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy in range 68.05
with SL of 67.70 for target of 68.60.
Currency Highlights
22nd
Nov’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.71 67.94 68.05 68.17 68.28 68.40 68.63
JPYINR 60.90 61.21 61.41 61.52 61.72 61.83 62.14

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
22nd
Nov’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its falling channel a
pattern at 72.60 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair
has shown horizontal trend line at 72.80 levels on daily
chart.
The pair has been trading below its 50 DEMA on daily
chart, which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 60 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness
in the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 71.70 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
pattern at 84.80 levels on daily chart. Moreover, prices
have been trading above 50 DEMA, which suggest short
term trend looks positive.
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick
pattern on daily chart, which is bullish pattern.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading above 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
85 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.32 83.71 83.90 84.10 84.29 84.49 84.88
EURINR 71.73 72.08 72.30 72.43 72.65 72.78 73.13

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
22nd
Nov’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
22.11.16 03:00 PM Public Sector Net Borrowing 10.1B 5.9B Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
22.11.16 08:30 PM Consumer Confidence -8 -8 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
22.11.16 08:30 PM Existing Home Sales 5.47M 5.43M Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
22.11.16 08:30 PM Richmond Manufacturing
Index
-4 1 Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
22nd
Nov’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com,
c=IN
Date: 2016.11.22 08:35:33 +05'30'