choicebroking #currencyreport: India’s Nikkei Services PMI declined by 0.6 points to 53.7-mark in April

1. Currency Highlights
05th
May’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Nikkei Services PMI declined by 0.6 points to 53.7-mark in April
 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change plunged to 156,000 in April
 Spanish Unemployment Change dropped by 83,600 in previous month
 UK’s Construction PMI plunged by 2.2 points to 52-mark in April
Indian Rupee snapped it gains and declined around 13 paise to end at 66.56
against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency had depreciated on ac-
count of fresh dollar demand from importers and banks. Further, downside
in the currency was seen due to weak domestic market sentiments along
with fall in services data of the country.
Moreover, plunge in the currency was seen after fresh capital outflows were
witnessed. According to data published by stock exchanges, foreign portfolio
investors and foreign institutional investors sold shares worth a net
Rs.755.28 crore on Tuesday. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.4950 to
66.66 in Wednesday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) refer-
ence rate for dollar was seen at 66.5388 and Euro stood at 76.4597 on
Wednesday.
India’s Nikkei Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.6 points to 53.7-mark in April from 54.3-level in March.
US Dollar Index gained around 0.4 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market senti-
ments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavourable economic data from the country
capped sharp gains in the currency.US Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Non-Farm Employment Change plunged by
38,000 to 156,000 in April as against a rise of 194,000 in March. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 1.2 points to 55.7-mark in last month from 54.5-level in March. Fac-
tory Orders expanded by 1.1 percent in March with respect to drop of 1.9 percent a month ago.
Euro against dollar fell around 0.1 percent on Wednesday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak global mar-
ket sentiments led to negative movement in the currency. However, sharp fall in the currency was prevented as a result of
mixed economic data from the region.
French Trade Balance was at a deficit of 4.4 billion Euros in March as against an earlier deficit of 5.1 billion Euros in February.
Spanish Unemployment Change dropped by 83,600 in April from a previous fall of 58,200 in March. Spanish Services PMI fell
marginally to 55.1-level in last month with respect to 55.3-mark in March. Italian Services PMI rose by 0.9 points to 52.1-mark
in April when compared to 51.2-level a month ago.
French Final Services PMI dropped marginally to 50.6-level in April with respect to 50.8-mark in March. German Final Services
PMI was at 54.5-mark in previous month as compared to 54.6-level in March. Euro Zone Final Services PMI was at 53.1-level in
April from 53.2-mark in March. Euro Zone Retail Sales plunged by 0.5 percent in March with respect to rise of 0.3 percent in
earlier month. The Sterling Pound against dollar plunged around 0.2 percent in Wednesday’s trade on account of strength in
the dollar index. Further, weak global market sentiments along with unfavourable economic data from the country led to neg-
ative movement in the currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 93.14 93.02 0.12 0.13
USD/INR(Spot) 66.58 66.60 (0.02) (0.03)
USD/INR(NseApr) 66.88 66.75 0.13 0.19
EUR/INR(Spot) 76.51 76.59 (0.08) (0.10)
EUR/INR(NseApr) 76.86 77.28 (0.42) (0.55)
GBP/INR(Spot) 96.50 96.89 (0.39) (0.40)
GBP/INR(NseApr) 96.95 97.87 (0.92) (0.95)
JPY/INR(NseApr) 62.61 62.99 (0.38) (0.61)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has shown breakout of its rising channel
pattern 62.40 levels. Price has retested the upper band of
channel pattern at 62.40 levels on y chart. Moreover, Pair has
been trading above its 50 hourly exponential moving average
which suggest short term trend remains up.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has given breakout
of its falling trend line at 50 levels which suggest more buying
opportunity can be seen on lower side.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
positive .
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 63 levels in
few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The USDINR price has been trading in rising channel for-
mation form past few week and price has taken support of
lower band of channel at 66.60 levels on hurly chart. On daily
chart, USDINR has been taking support of its horizontal
trends line at 66.24 levels. Moreover, price have been trading
above its 60 Hourly exponential moving average so any dips
upto 66.80 level, it would become the best buying opportuni-
ty in near term.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 60 levels
on hourly chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
Momentum indictor MACD has shown positive crossover and
moved above single line on hourly chart, which gives positive
confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.35 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
05th
May’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.54 66.71 66.80 66.88 66.97 67.05 67.22
JPYINR 61.82 62.17 62.39 62.52 62.74 62.87 63.22

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
05th
May’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has been trading in rising channel formation and
taking support of lower band of channel pattern 75.60 levels.
The pair has been trading in acceding triangle formation on
daily chart. The price has given breakout its symmetrical
pattern at 76.10 levels on hourly chart. On the other hand,
Pair has been trading above its 50 daily exponential moving
average which indicates that trend is remains up.
On daily chart, GBPINR has shown breakout of its rectangle
pattern at 76.40 levels. A momentum oscillator RSI have
been trading above 60 levels on hourly chart which gives
bullishness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on four hourly chart which support our bullish view
on the pair.
Technical View:
The price has given breakout its rectangle pattern at 96.70
levels on daily chart. O The pair has almost rested the upper
band of pattern at 96.80 levels on daily chart. n the other
hand, Pair has been trading above its 100 daily exponential
moving average which indicates that trend is remains up.
On daily chart, GBPINR has given breakout of its falling trend
lien at 96.80 levels . A momentum oscillator RSI have been
trading above 60 levels on hourly chart which gives bullish-
ness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on four hourly chart which support our bullish
view on the pair.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards 97.40
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 95.94 96.48 96.71 97.02 97.25 97.56 98.10
EURINR 76.34 76.59 76.72 76.84 76.97 77.09 77.34

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
03.05.16 7:15am Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.7 49.8 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; Yuan
03.05.16 2:00pm Manufacturing PMI 51.0 51.3 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
03.05.16 8:00pm FOMC Member Mester Speaks
05th
May’2016

5. Currency Highlights
05th
May’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.05.05 08:30:47 +05'30'