#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
14th
March’2017
HighLights:
 India’s Industrial Production grew by 2.7 percent in January
 China’s Industrial Production grew by 6.3 percent in January
 Italian Industrial Production plunged by 2.3 percent in Jan’17
 China’s Retail Sales dropped to 9.5 percent in January
China’s Industrial Production grew by 6.3 percent in January as against
a rise of 6 percent in December. Fixed Asset Investment expanded by
8.9 percent in January from a gain of 8.1 percent a month ago. Retail
Sales dropped to 9.5 percent in January with respect to 10.9 percent
in December.
Indian Rupee rose to 17-week high and appreciated around 11 paise
to end at 66.61 against the US dollar on Friday. The currency appreci-
ated on account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Indian
Rupee appreciated ahead of the final results of the assembly elec-
tions, which will be declared on Saturday and key macro-economic
data due today and tomorrow. Gains in the currency were due to
continued buying from foreign investors in the local equity and debt markets. Between, 2-8 March, FII’s bought $1.3 billion in
equity while $150 million in debt.
So far this year, rupee gained 2% while foreign institutional investors have bought $2.85 billion and $576.70 million from local
equity and debt markets, respectively. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.56 to 66.73 in Friday’s trade. The Reserve Bank
of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 66.6880 and Euro stood at 70.6426 as on 10th Mar’17. For the
month of March 2017, FII inflows in equities totalled at Rs.9628.52 crores ($1443.27 million) as on 10th March 2017. Year to
date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.18354.10 crores ($2745.71 million) as on 10th March 2017.
India’s Industrial Production grew by 2.7 percent in January as against a decline of 0.4 percent in December. Manufacturing
Output expanded by 2.3 percent in January from a fall of 2 percent a month ago.
US Dollar Index grew marginally in Monday’s trading session due to estimates of hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve
in its meeting on 14-15th March 2017. However, rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in de-
mand for the low yielding currency capped gains in the currency.
Euro against dollar declined around 0.34 percent on Monday on account of strength in the dollar index coupled with unfavour-
able economic data from the region. However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented due to upbeat global market
sentiments. Italian Industrial Production plunged by 2.3 percent in January as against a rise of 1.4 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound grew around 0.4 percent in Monday’s trade on account of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, esti-
mates of favourable economic data from the country continued with positive movement in the currency. However, stronger
dollar capped gains in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.1 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in
global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.38 101.99 (0.61) (0.60)
USD/INR(Spot) 66.49 66.71 (0.22) (0.33)
USD/INR(NseMar.) 66.72 66.86 (0.14) (0.21)
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.04 70.53 0.51 0.72
EUR/INR(NseMar.) 70.88 70.70 0.18 0.25
GBP/INR(Spot) 80.89 81.16 (0.27) (0.33)
GBP/INR(NseMar.) 81.24 81.37 (0.13) (0.16)
JPY/INR(NseMar.) 57.90 58.40 (0.50) (0.86)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On a daily chart, the pair has given a breakdown of its
rising channel pattern at 59.10 levels.
The pair has shown a breakdown of its rising trend line
at 59.20 levels on a daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 50 DSMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator, RSI is trading below
50 levels which indicate more downside momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover which suggests a lack of strength in the
prices on a daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one can sell JPYINR in the
range of 58.95 with SL of 59.25 for the target of 58.30
levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given a breakdown of its rising trend line at
66.80 levels on a daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DSMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
Furthermore, the price has shown a breakdown of its
consolidation range from 67.40 to 66.80 levels on a daily
chart.
A momentum indicator RSI has remained below 45 lev-
els, which suggest further negative momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover and moving below its signal line on a dai-
ly chart.
So for trading perspective, one can sell USDINR in the
range of 66.80 with SL of 67 for the target of 66.30 lev-
els.
Currency Highlights
14th
March’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.38 66.57 66.65 66.76 66.84 66.95 67.14
JPYINR 57.42 57.69 57.80 57.96 58.07 58.23 58.50

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
14th
March’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On a daily chart, prices have been trading in falling
channel pattern from past few weeks and price has tak-
en the support of its lower band of channel pattern at
70.60 levels.
The price has taken the support of its horizontal trend
line at 70.30 levels o daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 10 HSMA on the
hourly chart, which suggests further positive momen-
tum can be seen in the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator, RSI has been tak-
ing support at 35 levels on a daily chart, which suggests
bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on the hourly chart, which supports our bullish
view on the prices.
For now, we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 71.45 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in symmetrical triangle for-
mation from past few weeks and price has given a
breakdown of its lower band of the pattern at 82.60 lev-
els on a daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 21 DSMA,
which suggest short term trend looks down.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive crossover on a daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indicator RSI has been trading below
50 levels on the daily chart, which suggest the possibili-
ties of further downside momentum in the prices.
For now, we expect prices should move lower to-
wards 80.40 levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 80.82 81.05 81.14 81.28 81.37 81.51 81.74
EURINR 70.69 70.79 70.79 70.89 70.89 70.99 71.09

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
14th
March’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
14.03.17 07:30 AM Industrial Production y/y 2.1% -0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; CNY
14.03.17 06:00 PM PPI m/m 0.1% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
14.03.17 06:00 PM Core PPI m/m 227K 185K Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
14th
March’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2017.03.14 08:44:50 +05'30'