1. Currency Highlights
13th
May’2016
HighLights:
India’s Industrial Production dropped to 0.1 percent in March
US Unemployment Claims rose to 294,000 for w/e on 6th
May’16
Euro Zone Industrial Production declined by 0.8 percent in March
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 5.39 percent in April
UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5 percent in the current month
Indian Rupee dropped around 6 paise to end at 66.62 against the US dollar
on Thursday. The currency had depreciated on account of fresh dollar de-
mand from importers and banks. Further, outflow of foreign capital led to
negative movement in the currency. Foreign Portfolio Investors and For-
eign Institutional Investors sold shares worth a net Rs 362.19 crore on
Wednesday, as per the provisional data issued by stock exchanges. Indian
Rupee moved in the range of 66.5350 to 66.6825 in Thursday’s trading
session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reference rate for dollar was seen
at 66.5977 and Euro stood at 76.0612 on Thursday. It also declined further
against the euro to 75.91 from 75.87. However, the domestic currency
moved up against the yen to 60.96 per 100 yens from 61.19.
India’s Industrial Production dropped to 0.1 percent in March as against a rise of 2 percent in February. Manufacturing Output
plunged by 1.2 percent in March from a rise of 0.7 percent a month ago. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 5.39 percent in
April with respect to increase of 4.83 percent in March.
US Dollar Index gained around 0.34 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market senti-
ments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavourable economic data from the country
capped sharp positive movement in the currency.
US Unemployment Claims rose by 20,000 to 294,000 for the week ending on 6th
May’16 as against a rise of 274,000 in prior
week. Import Prices unchanged at 0.3 percent in the last month.
Euro against dollar plunged around 0.5 percent on Thursday on account of strength in the dollar index. Further, weak global
market sentiments coupled with unfavourable economic data from the region kept downside pressure on the currency.
German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) unchanged at 0.3 percent in the last month. French Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) re-
mained unchanged at 0.1 percent in the month of April. Euro Zone Industrial Production declined by 0.8 percent in March as
against a previous drop of 1.2 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound against dollar fell marginally in Thursday’s trade on account of weak global market sentiments coupled
with strength in the dollar index. However, unchanged interest rates in central banks meeting yesterday cushioned sharp fall
in the currency. UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5 percent in the current month. Asset Purchase Facility remained un-
changed at 375 billion Pounds in the month of May. The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.63 percent in yes-
terday’s trade due to unfavourable economic data from the country. However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented
due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 94.02 93.8 0.22 0.23
USD/INR(Spot) 66.62 66.59 0.03 0.05
USD/INR(NseApr) 66.81 66.80 0.01 0.01
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.95 76.09 (0.14) (0.18)
EUR/INR(NseApr) 76.18 76.17 0.01 0.01
GBP/INR(Spot) 96.24 96.15 0.09 0.09
GBP/INR(NseApr) 96.56 96.42 0.14 0.14
JPY/INR(NseApr) 61.20 61.44 (0.24) (0.39)
MarketHighlights
2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has been trading in rising wedge formation
form past few weeks. Price has faced resistance of upper
band of wedge pattern at 62.80 levels on 4 hourly chart. Pric-
es have been facing resistance of horizontal trend line at
62.10 levels on 4 hourly chart.
The prices have been facing resistance of 161.80% Fibonacci
projection at 63.10 levels which is known as golden ration.
Moreover, Pair has been trading below its 50 hourly exponen-
tial moving average which suggest short term trend remains
down.
On 4 hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved be-
low 60 levels, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover
on 4 hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
negative.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has formed evening star candle stick pattern on 4
hourly chart, which is bearish pattern. Moreover, price has
been moving in rectangle pattern and facing resistance at
67.10 levels on hourly chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term trend re-
mains weak. So any rally towards 67.95 level, used as selling
opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading below 60 levels
on 4 hourly chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
Momentum indictor MACD has shown negative crossover
and trading below single line on 4 hourly chart, which gives
negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 66.40 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
13th
May’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.49 66.64 66.72 66.79 66.87 66.94 67.09
JPYINR 60.49 60.88 61.04 61.27 61.43 61.66 62.05
3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
13th
May’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
Price has been trading in ascending triangle pattern on 4
hourly chart and facing resistance of its upper band at 76.90
levels. The price has been trading in rising channel formation
and facing resistance of upper band of channel pattern at
77.50 levels. On the other hand, Pair has been trading below
its 50 hourly exponential moving average which indicates
that trend is remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 60 lev-
els on daily chart which gives bearishness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on four hourly chart which support our bearish
view on the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 75.70
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has retested its falling channel pattern trend line at
96 level on 4 hourly chart. Moreover, price has formed bull-
ish engulfing pattern on daily chart ,which is followed by pos-
itive candle stick.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 60 hourly
exponential moving average which indicates that short term
trend is remains bullish.
On daily chart, GBPINR has taken support of 61.80% Fibonac-
ci retracement from its previous rally of 94 to 98 levels. A
momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 45 levels
on 4 hourly chart which gives bullishness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
signs on 4 hourly chart and traded above of its signal line
which support our bullish view on the pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 95.94 96.20 96.37 96.46 96.63 96.72 96.98
EURINR 75.76 75.98 76.05 76.20 76.27 76.42 76.64
4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
13.05.16 Tentative MPC Member Haldane Speaks
13.05.16 11:30am German Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% 0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
13.05.16 2:30pm Flash GDP q/q 0.6% 0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
13.05.16 6:00pm MPC Member Weale Speaks
13.05.16 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.05.16 6:00pm PPI m/m -0.1% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.05.16 6:00pm Retail Sales m/m -0.3% -0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.05.16 6:00pm Core PPI m/m -0.1% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.05.16 6:00pm Prelim UoM Consumer Senti-
ment
89.0 89.9 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.05.16 13th-14th Mortgage Delinquencies 4.77% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13th
May’2016
5. Currency Highlights
13th
May’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.05.13 08:34:12 +05'30'
