#ChoiceBroking #Currencyhighlights : India’s RBI keeps repo & reverse repo rates unchanged in June meeting

1. Currency Highlights
08th
June’2016
HighLights:
 India’s RBI keeps repo & reverse repo rates unchanged in June
meeting
 US Revised Nonfarm Productivity dropped by 0.6 percent in Q1 of
2016
 UK’s Halifax House Price Index (HPI) expanded to 0.6 percent in May
 Euro Zone Revised GDP rose to 0.6 percent in first quarter of 2016
 Japan’s Current Account at a surplus of 1.63 trillion Yen in April
Indian Rupee appreciated for fourth consecutive day and gained by 20 pai-
se to end at 66.77 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The currency touched
a new three week high on account of sustained selling of dollars by export-
ers and banks. Additionally, robust capital inflows into equities and debts
also led to appreciation in the Indian Rupee. Further, sharp recovery in the
domestic market sentiments led to positive movement in the currency. On
the economy front, Raghuram Rajan maintained status quo in its bi-
monthly monetary policy review yesterday.
US Dollar Index fell around 0.2 percent in Tuesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments
which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic data from the country kept
pressure on the currency.
US Revised Nonfarm Productivity dropped by 0.6 percent in Q1 of 2016 as against a decline of 1 percent in previous quarter.
Revised Unit Labor Costs grew to 4.5 percent in first quarter of the current year from 4.1 percent in Q4 of 2015. Investor's
Business Daily (IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism fell by 0.5 points to 48.2-mark in
June with respect to 48.7-level in May.
Euro against dollar gained marginally on Tuesday on account of weakness in the dollar index coupled with optimistic economic
data from the region. Further, upbeat global market sentiments led to positive movement in the currency.
German Industrial Production rose by 0.8 percent in April as against a decline of 1.1 percent a month ago. French Gov Budget
Balance was at a deficit of 56.5 billion Euros in April from a previous deficit of 27.5 billion Euros in March. French Trade Bal-
ance was at a deficit of 5.2 billion Euros in April with respect to deficit of 4.2 billion Euros a month earlier. Euro Zone Revised
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 0.6 percent in Q1 of 2016 when compared to 0.5 percent in prior quarter.
The Sterling Pound rose around 0.7 percent in Tuesday’s trade on account of weaker dollar. Moreover, upbeat global market
sentiments along with favourable economic data from the country led to positive movement in the currency. UK’s Halifax
House Price Index (HPI) expanded to 0.6 percent in May from a decline of 0.8 percent in April.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.24 percent in Tuesday’s trade due to rise in risk aversion in global mar-
ket sentiments in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan’s Current Ac-
count at a surplus of 1.63 trillion Yen in April from a previous surplus of 1.89 trillion Yen in March. Final Gross Domestic Prod-
uct (GDP) expanded by 0.5 percent in Q1 of 2016 as against a rise of 0.4 percent in previous quarter.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 93.87 94.03 (0.16) (0.17)
USD/INR(Spot) 66.76 66.80 (0.04) (0.06)
USD/INR(NseJune) 66.98 67.24 (0.26) (0.39)
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.84 75.90 (0.06) (0.08)
EUR/INR(NseJune) 76.15 76.30 (0.15) (0.20)
GBP/INR(Spot) 97.39 96.62 0.77 0.79
GBP/INR(NseJune) 97.70 96.96 0.74 0.76
JPY/INR(NseJune) 62.12 62.72 (0.60) (0.97)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has been trading in rectangle pattern form
past few weeks and prices are facing resistance of its upper
band of channel pattern at 62.50 levels on hourly chart.
In addition, on four hourly chart price has formed hanging
man candle stick pattern , which is bearish reversal pattern.
On hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved below
60 levels, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover
on hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
bearish.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 61.70 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been moving in its rising channel formation
from past few weeks and price has given breakdown of its of
its lower band of channel pattern at 67.10 levels on daily
chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below of its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term trend re-
mains down. So any rally in the prices towards 67.20 level,
used as selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 60 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover on
daily chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 66.60 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
08th
June’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.51 66.77 66.87 67.03 67.13 67.29 67.55
JPYINR 61.46 61.83 61.98 62.20 62.35 62.57 62.94

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
08th
June’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has given breakdown of its symmetrical triangle
pattern at 76.10 levels on daily chart. Now, the price has re-
tested the breakdown trend line at 76.30 levels.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 half
hourly exponential moving average which indicates that
trend is remains negative.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 60 lev-
els on hourly chart which gives the signs of bearishness to
the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on hourly chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 75.70
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The prices have been moving in rising channel formation
form past few weeks and price has taken support of its low-
er band of its channel pattern at 97 levels on daily chart.
The pair has formed Moring star candle stick pattern on daily
chart, which is bullish pattern.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 50 hourly
exponential moving average which indicates that medium
term trend is remains bullish.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on 4 hourly chart which support our bullish view
on the pair.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards 98.30
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 95.38 96.53 97.11 97.68 98.26 98.83 99.98
EURINR 75.76 75.97 76.05 76.18 76.26 76.39 76.60

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
08.06.16 5:20am Current Account 1.89T 2.04T Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; JPYINR
08.06.16 5:20am Final GDP q/q 0.4% 0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; JPYINR
08.06.16 Tentative Trade Balance 298B 358B Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; Yuan
08.06.16 2:00pm Manufacturing Production m/m 0.1% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
08.06.16 7:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 5.76M 5.82M Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
08.06.16 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories Actual < Forecast = Good for
Crude Oil
08th
June’2016

5. Currency Highlights
08th
June’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.06.08 08:47:46 +05'30'