#ChoiceBroking #Currencyreport: Indian Rupee rose for second day to end at 67.17 on Thursday

1. Currency Highlights
27th
May’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee rose for second day to end at 67.17 on Thursday
 US Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.4 percent in the last month
 Italian Retail Sales declined by 0.6 percent in the month of March
 UK’s Second Estimate GDP unchanged at 0.4 percent in the Q1 of 2016
 US Unemployment Claims fell to 268,000 for the w/e on 20th
May’16
 Japan’s Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.5 percent in
May
Indian Rupee strengthened for second consecutive day and gained by 16
paise to end at 67.17 against the US dollar on Thursday. The currency had
appreciated on account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Ad-
ditionally, sharp rise in domestic market sentiments coupled with fresh
inflow of foreign capital led to upside movement in the currency. Howev-
er, sharp gains in the currency were capped due to month end dollar de-
mand from oil importers. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 67.14 to
67.39 in Thursday’s trading session.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee bounced back against the pound sterling to end at 98.85 from 98.98 on Tuesday. It also
regained some ground against the euro and closed at 75.03 compared with 75.73 and recovered against the yen to settle at
61.13 per 100 yens as against 61.80 yesterday.
US Dollar Index declined around 0.2 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic data from the country
kept pressure on the currency.
US Goods Trade Balance was at a deficit of $57.5 billion in April as against a previous deficit of $57.1 billion in March. House
Price Index (HPI) rose to 0.7 percent in March from 0.5 percent a month ago. Flash Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
dropped by 1.6 points to 51.2-mark in May with respect to 52.8-level in April.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.13 percent on Wednesday on account of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weak-
ness in the dollar index coupled with favourable economic data from the region led to positive movement in the currency.
GfK German Consumer Climate jumped marginally to 9.8-mark in May as against a rise of 9.7-level in April. German Ifo Busi-
ness Climate increased to 107.7-level in current month from 106.6-mark in April.
The Sterling Pound surged around 0.4 percent in Wednesday’s trade on account of upbeat global market sentiments. Further,
weakness in the dollar index led to upside movement in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.13 percent in Wednesday’s trade due to rise in risk appetite in global
market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.15 95.4 (0.25) (0.26)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.18 67.32 (0.14) (0.21)
USD/INR(NseMay) 67.17 67.42 (0.25) (0.37)
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.17 75.09 0.08 0.11
EUR/INR(NseMay) 75.17 75.20 (0.03) (0.04)
GBP/INR(Spot) 98.81 98.93 (0.12) (0.12)
GBP/INR(NseMay) 98.75 98.95 (0.20) (0.20)
JPY/INR(NseMay) 61.12 61.17 (0.05) (0.08)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has given breakdown of its rising trend line
at 61.30 levels on 4 hourly chart. Prices have been facing re-
sistance of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels form its previous
down move of 63 to 61levels.
However , Pair has been trading above its 21 hourly exponen-
tial moving average which suggest short term trend remains
weak.
On 4 hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved be-
low its 45 levels, which gives negative confirmation to the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover
on 4 hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
bearish.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 60.80 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The prices have been trading in its rising channel formation
form past few weeks and price has faced resistance of its up-
per band of channel pattern at 67.80 levels on 4 hourly chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 21 hourly expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term trend re-
mains negative. So any rise in the prices towards 67.30 level,
used as selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has shown negative divergence
on 4 hourly chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover
and trading below its single line on 4 hourly chart, which
gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 66.85 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
27th
May’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.77 67.01 67.09 67.25 67.33 67.49 67.73
JPYINR 60.44 60.83 60.97 61.22 61.36 61.61 62.00

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
27th
May’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has given breakdown of its rising trend line at 76
levels on daily chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trad-
ing below its 50 hourly exponential moving average which
indicates that trend is remains negative.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 45 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 74.60
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakout of its falling channel pattern
with and price has taken support of its upper band of chan-
nel pattern on daily chart. Moreover, price has formed long
bullish candle stick on daily chart which gives positive confir-
mation to the prices.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 50 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that medium
term trend is remains bullish.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 61 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the sign of bullishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on
the pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 97.78 98.32 98.53 98.86 99.07 99.40 99.94
EURINR 74.68 74.96 75.07 75.24 75.35 75.52 75.80

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
27.05.16 5:00am Tokyo Core CPI y/y -0.3% -0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; JPYINR
27.05.16 All Day G7 Meetings
27.05.16 6:00pm Prelim GDP q/q 0.5% 0.8% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
27.05.16 7:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Senti-
ment
95.8 95.7 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
27.05.16 10:45pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
27th
May’2016

5. Currency Highlights
27th
May’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.05.27 08:40:30 +05'30'