#ChoiceBroking #Currencyreport : Indian Rupee rose to week high at 67.03 in Friday’s trade

1. Currency Highlights
30th
May’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee rose to week high at 67.03 in Friday’s trade
 US Prelim GDP expanded by 0.8 percent in first quarter of 2016
 Bank of Japan (BOJ) CPI fell to 0.9 percent in the current month
 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment declined to 94.7-mark in May
Indian Rupee strengthened for third consecutive day and gained by 14 pai-
se to end at one week high at 67.03 against the US dollar on Friday. The
currency had appreciated on account of robust inflow of dollars in equi-
ties. FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 581.29 crore yesterday, as per pro-
visional data released by the stock exchanges. Further, upside in the cur-
rency was seen due to unwinding of long-dollar positions by speculators
and exporters. However, sharp gains in the currency were capped due to
month end dollar demand from oil importers. Indian Rupee moved in the
range of 66.95 to 67.12 in Friday’s trading session. The currency has appre-
ciated around 72 paise in last three trading sessions.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee continued to rule firm against the pound sterling and ended at 98.19 compared to 98.79
yesterday and recovered against the euro to conclude at 74.85 from 75.10 earlier. The rupee on the other hand fell back
against the yen to settle at 61.12 per 100 yens compared to 61.06.
US Dollar Index surged around 0.6 percent in Friday’s trading session due to favourable economic growth data from the coun-
try. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to
decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.8 percent in Q1 of 2016 as against a rise of 0.5 percent in previous
quarter. Prelim GDP Price Index was at 0.6 percent in first quarter of 2016 from 0.7 percent in last quarter of 2015. Revised
UoM Consumer Sentiment declined by 1.1 points to 94.7-mark in current month with respect to 95.8-level in April. Revised
UoM Inflation Expectations was at 2.4 percent in May when compared to 2.5 percent a month ago.
Euro against dollar declined around 0.7 percent on Friday on account of strength in the dollar index. However, upbeat global
market sentiments prevented sharp downside in the currency.
The Sterling Pound dropped around 0.2 percent in Friday’s trade on account of stronger dollar index. However, upbeat global
market sentiments cushioned sharp downside movement in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.54 percent in Friday’s trade due to rise in risk appetite in global market
sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.9 percent in May as against a rise of 1.1 percent in April.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.73 95.16 0.57 0.60
USD/INR(Spot) 67.03 66.92 0.11 0.16
USD/INR(NseJune) 67.36 67.49 (0.13) (0.19)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.49 74.94 (0.45) (0.60)
EUR/INR(NseJune) 75.37 75.54 (0.17) (0.23)
GBP/INR(Spot) 98.03 98.18 (0.15) (0.15)
GBP/INR(NseJune) 98.74 99.09 (0.35) (0.35)
JPY/INR(NseJune) 61.42 61.36 0.06 0.10
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has given breakdown of its rising trend line
at 61.30 levels on 4 hourly chart. Prices have been facing re-
sistance of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels form its previous
down move of 63 to 61levels.
However , Pair has been trading above its 21 hourly exponen-
tial moving average which suggest short term trend remains
weak.
On 4 hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved be-
low its 45 levels, which gives negative confirmation to the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover
on 4 hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
bearish.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 60.80 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has given breakdown of its rising channel formation
at 67.15 levels and price has faced resistance of its lower
band of channel pattern at 67.10 levels on 4 hourly chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 100 hourly ex-
ponential moving average which suggest near term trend
remains negative. So any rise in the prices towards 67.20 lev-
el, used as selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has shown negative divergence
on 4 hourly chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover
and trading below its single line on 4 hourly chart, which
gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 66.85 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
30th
May’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.97 67.17 67.27 67.37 67.47 67.57 67.77
JPYINR 60.52 60.93 61.18 61.34 61.59 61.75 62.16

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
30th
May’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has given breakdown of its rising trend line at 76
levels on daily chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trad-
ing below its 50 hourly exponential moving average which
indicates that trend is remains negative.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 45 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 74.60
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The prices have been moving in falling channel formation
form past few months and price has faced resistance of its
upper band of channel pattern at 98.60 levels on 4houlry
chart. Moreover, price has formed evening star candle stick
pattern on 4 hourly chart which gives negative confirmation
to the prices.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 15 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that medium
term trend is remains bearish.
A momentum oscillator RSI has given negative divergence
on 4 hourly chart 61 levels which gives the sign of bullishness
to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on
the pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 97.65 98.17 98.46 98.69 98.98 99.21 99.73
EURINR 74.79 75.11 75.24 75.43 75.56 75.75 76.07

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
30.05.16 11:30am German Import Prices m/m 0.4% 0.7% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
All Day All Day German Prelim CPI m/m 0.3% -0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30.05.16 12:15pm French Consumer Spending m/
m
0.1% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30.05.16 12:30pm Spanish Flash CPI y/y -0.1% -1.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30th
May’2016

5. Currency Highlights
30th
May’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.05.28 12:05:04 +05'30'