#ChoiceBroking #Currencyreport - India’s Industrial Production expanded by 1.2 percent in May

1. Currency Highlights
13th
July’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Industrial Production expanded by 1.2 percent in May
 US JOLTS Job Openings plunged to 5.50 million in month of May
 German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) fell to 0.6 percent in June
 Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 0.7 percent in May
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 5.77 percent in June from 5.76
percent in May. Industrial Production expanded by 1.2 percent in May
with respect to drop of 0.8 percent a month ago. Manufacturing output
grew by 0.7 percent in May when compared to fall of 3.1 percent in April.
US Dollar Index declined marginally in Tuesday‘s trading session due to
rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in
demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic
data from the country kept pressure on the currency.
US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) Job Openings
plunged to 5.50 million in May as against a rise of 5.85 million in April.
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 5.77 percent in June from 5.76 percent in May. Industrial Production expanded by
1.2 percent in May with respect to drop of 0.8 percent a month ago. Manufacturing output grew by 0.7 percent in May when
compared to fall of 3.1 percent in April.
US Dollar Index declined marginally in Tuesday‘s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which
led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic data from the country kept pressure
on the currency.
US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) Job Openings plunged to 5.50 million in May as against a rise of 5.85
million in April.
Euro against dollar rose marginally on Tuesday on account of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the dollar
index led to upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was restricted due to unfavourable economic data
from the region.
German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged at 0.1 percent in June. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) fell to 0.6
percent in June from 0.9 percent in May.
The Sterling Pound surged by more than 2 percent in Monday’s trade due to weaker dollar. Further, upbeat global market sen-
timents led to positive movement in the currency. Additionally, upside in the currency was seen after rumours that interior
minister Theresa May become as British prime minister which helped calm investors unnerved by Brexit and political turmoil.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 1.9 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in
global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic data
from the country kept pressure on the currency. Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity declined by 0.7 percent in May as against a
rise of 0.7 percent in April.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 96.19 96.58 (0.39) (0.41)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.14 67.15 (0.01) (0.01)
USD/INR(NseJuly) 67.29 67.30 (0.01) (0.01)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.59 74.24 0.35 0.47
EUR/INR(NseJuly) 74.74 74.37 0.37 0.50
GBP/INR(Spot) 88.38 87.26 1.12 1.27
GBP/INR(NseJuly) 87.59 87.44 0.15 0.17
JPY/INR(NseJuly) 64.84 65.67 (0.83) (1.28)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The pair have been trading in rising channel pattern and pric-
es have been facing resistance of its upper band of channel
pattern 67.60 levels on daily chart.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading below its
15 hourly exponential moving average which gives the nega-
tive confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has remained above
its overbought zone 70 levels, which gives negative confirma-
tion to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative sign on
daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bearish.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 64.20 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been trading in its rising channel formation
from past few months and price has faced resistance of its
upper band at 68.10 levels on daily chart. Price has faced re-
sistance of its horizontal trend line at 68 levels on daily.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 15 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains
down. So any rally in the prices towards 67.50 level, used as
selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 60 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover on
daily chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 67 levels in
few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
13th
July’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.07 67.18 67.24 67.29 67.35 67.40 67.51
JPYINR 62.70 63.95 64.39 65.20 65.64 66.45 67.70

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
13th
July’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakout of its symmetrical triangle
patter at 75.50 levels on daily chart. The price has shown
breakdown of its rising channel pattern at 75.50 levels on
daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 45 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 73.90
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has completed bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern on
daily chart 87.20 levels the coordinates of which are as fol-
lows: Technical Parameter: AB of the leg from 106 to 92,BC
of the leg completed 101 at (i.e.50% of AB leg.) CD of the leg
completed to 87.20 levels (i.e. near 200% Fibonacci Projec-
tion of BC leg). So any dips in the prices towards 87.50 level,
used as buying opportunity.
The price has taken support of its falling trend line at 87.30
levels on daily chart.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved in oversold zone at
27 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
sign on daily chart which support our bullish view on the
pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 86.75 87.58 88.10 88.41 88.93 89.24 90.07
EURINR 74.05 74.37 74.54 74.69 74.86 75.01 75.33

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
13.07.16 Tentative Trade Balance 325B 320B Actual > Forecast = Good for
Yuan
13.07.16 2:00pm BOE Credit Conditions Survey
13.07.16 6:00pm Import Prices m/m 1.4% 0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.07.16 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.2M Actual < Forecast = Good for
Crude Oil
13th
July’2016

5. Currency Highlights
13th
July’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.07.13 08:49:15 +05'30'