#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
17th
March’2017
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee closed to 17-month high of 65.41 on Thursday
 US Building Permits fell to 1.21 million in previous month
 Euro Zone Final CPI unchanged at 2 percent in February
 UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.25 percent in March
 US Unemployment Claims fell to 241,000 w/e 10th
Mar’17
Indian Rupee closed to 17-month high and appreciated around 28 paise to
end at 65.41 against the US dollar on Thursday. The currency appreciated on
account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Indian Rupee gained
after data released by the commerce ministry showed exports grew 17.48%
to $24.5 billion in February, while imports rose 21.76% to $33.4 billion in the
same month, leading to a trade deficit of $8.9 billion, the lowest in five
months.
So far this year, foreign institutional investors have bought $2.90 billion and
$627.30 million from local equity and debt markets, respectively. Further,
upside in the currency was seen due to upbeat domestic market sentiments.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 65.215 to 65.638 in Thursday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar
was seen at 65.3836 and Euro stood at 70.1893 as on 16th Mar’17. For the month of March 2017, FII inflows in equities totalled at
Rs.15700.13 crores ($2357.47 million) as on 16th March 2017. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.24425.71 crores ($3659.91
million) as on 16th March 2017.
US Dollar Index dropped around 0.4 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to unfavourable economic data from the country. However,
sharp fall in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for
the low yielding currency.
US Building Permits fell to 1.21 million in February as against a rise of 1.29 million in January. Housing Starts grew to 1.29 million in
previous month from 1.25 million in January. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 10.5 points to 32.8-mark in March when compared
to 43.3-level in February. Unemployment Claims fell by 2,000 to 241,000 for the week ending on 10th Mar’17 with respect to 243,000 in
prior week. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) Job Openings expanded to 5.63 million in January as compared with 5.54
million a month ago.
Euro against dollar grew around 0.3 percent on Thursday on account of weakness in the dollar index coupled with favourable economic
data from the region. However, weak global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency. Euro Zone Final Consumer Price Index
(CPI) remained unchanged at 2 percent in February. Final Core CPI also was unchanged at 0.9 percent in the previous month.
The Sterling Pound rose around 0.55 percent in Thursday’s trade on account of weaker dollar along with favourable economic data from
the country. However, weak global market sentiments prevented sharp positive movement in the currency.
UK’s Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.25 percent in March. Asset Purchase Facility also remained constant at 435 billion Pounds
in March meeting.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.1 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market
sentiments in early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.57 101.7 (0.13) (0.13)
USD/INR(Spot) 65.69 65.76 (0.07) (0.11)
USD/INR(NseMar.) 65.80 65.96 (0.16) (0.24)
EUR/INR(Spot) 69.76 69.75 0.01 0.01
EUR/INR(NseMar.) 70.00 70.23 (0.23) (0.33)
GBP/INR(Spot) 80.09 79.92 0.17 0.21
GBP/INR(NseMar.) 80.33 80.11 0.22 0.27
JPY/INR(NseMar.) 57.49 57.43 0.06 0.10
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On a daily chart, the pair has been trading in horizontal
channel pattern from past few months and price has
taken the support of its horizontal channel pattern at
57.25 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 10 HSMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator, RSI is taking
support at 30 levels which indicate pull back in the
prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover which suggests strength in the prices
on a daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one can buy JPYINR in the
range of 57.60 with SL of 58.10 for the target of 57.40
levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given a breakdown of its “Symmetrical
Triangle” pattern at 66.60 levels on a daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DSMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
Furthermore, the price has shown a breakdown of its
consolidation range from 67.40 to 66.60 levels on a daily
chart.
A momentum indicator RSI has remained below 45
levels, which suggest further negative momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
negative crossover and moving below its signal line on a
daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one can sell USDINR in the
range of 65.60 with SL of 66.80 for the target of 65.20
levels.
Currency Highlights
17th
March’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 64.89 65.32 65.56 65.75 65.99 66.18 66.61
JPYINR 56.62 57.00 57.25 57.38 57.63 57.76 58.14

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
17th
March’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
On a daily chart, prices have been trading in falling
channel pattern from past few weeks and price has
taken the support of its lower band of channel pattern
at 69.60 levels.
The price has taken the support of its falling trend line
at 69.50 levels o daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 10 HSMA on the
hourly chart, which suggests further positive
momentum can be seen in the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator, RSI has been
taking support at 35 levels on a daily chart, which
suggests bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on the hourly chart, which supports our
bullish view on the prices.
For now, we can expect prices should move higher
towards 70.90 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in “Falling Wedge” pattern
from past few weeks and price has taken support of its
lower band of pattern at 80 levels on a daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above 10 HSMA,
which suggest short term trend looks up.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given
positive crossover on the hourly chart, which gives the
sign of bullishness in the prices.
The momentum indicator RSI has been trading near its
support levels on the daily chart, which suggest the
possibilities of further up side momentum in the prices.
For now, we expect prices should move higher
towards 81.10 levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 78.62 79.41 79.87 80.20 80.66 80.99 81.78
EURINR 69.03 69.50 69.87 69.97 70.34 70.44 70.91

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
17th
March’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
Day 1 Day 1 G20 Meetings
17.03.17 07:30 PM Prelim UoM Consumer Senti-
ment
96.1 97.1 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
17th
March’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2017.03.17 08:26:41 +05'30'