#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
04th
Jan’2017
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee dropped to one month low at 68.33 on Tuesday
 US ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to 54.7-level in Dec’16
 German Unemployment Change plunged by 17,000 in November
 UK’s Manufacturing PMI surged to 56.1-mark in previous month
Indian Rupee came under pressure for second consecutive day to fresh one
month low and depreciated around 11 paise to end at 68.33 against the US
dollar on Tuesday. The currency depreciated on account of huge dollar de-
mand from importers and banks. Moreover, outflow of foreign funds after
selling of equities by institutional investors kept pressure on the currency.
However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented due to upbeat do-
mestic market sentiments. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 68.05 to
68.34 in Tuesday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate
for the dollar was seen at 68.0864 and Euro stood at 71.3818 as on 3rd
Jan’17.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee recovered against the pound sterling to
finish at 83.81 from 83.91 and hardened further against the euro to settle at
70.97 as compared to 71.50 earlier. It also bounced back against the
Japanese Yen to end at 57.73 per 100 yens from 58.11 Monday.
For the month of January 2017, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.1026.65 crores ($151.02 million) as on 3rd January 2017. Year to date
basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs.1026.65 crores ($151.02 million) as on 3rd January 2017.
US Dollar Index rose around 0.9 percent in Tuesday’s trading session due to favourable economic data from the country. However, sharp
upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low
yielding currency.
US Final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew marginally to 54.3-mark in December as against a rise of 54.2-level in No-
vember. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI surged by 1.5 points to 54.7-level December from 53.2-mark in
November. Construction Spending expanded by 0.9 percent in November with respect to 0.6 percent a month ago. ISM Manufacturing Pric-
es rose by 11 points to 65.5-level in previous month when compared to 54.5-mark in November.
Euro against dollar dropped around 0.5 percent on Tuesday on account of strength in the dollar index. However, sharp downside was pre-
vented as a result of favourable economic data from the region coupled with upbeat global market sentiments.
French Prelim Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.3 percent in December. German Unemployment Change plunged by 17,000 in Novem-
ber from a previous drop of 6,000 in October.
The Sterling Pound fell around 0.3 percent in Tuesday’s trade as a result of stronger dollar. However, sharp downside was prevented as a
result of optimistic economic data from the country along with upbeat global market sentiments.
UK’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surged by 2.7 points to 56.1-mark in December as against a rise of 53.4-level in No-
vember.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.2 percent in Tuesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market
sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 103.44 102.88 0.56 0.54
USD/INR(Spot) 68.14 67.95 0.19 0.28
USD/INR(NseJan) 68.49 68.37 0.12 0.18
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.01 71.27 (0.26) (0.37)
EUR/INR(NseJan) 71.24 71.74 (0.50) (0.70)
GBP/INR(Spot) 84.00 83.42 0.58 0.69
GBP/INR(NseJan) 84.12 84.13 (0.01) (0.01)
JPY/INR(NseJan) 58.00 58.39 (0.39) (0.67)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, it has been observed that the JPYINR has
completed a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern at 57.55 levels
the coordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 56 to 67.90,AB
of the leg completed at 63.30 (i.e.38.20% of XA leg.), BC
of the leg completed at 67.50 (i.e. near 88.60% of AB leg)
and CD of the leg completed at 57.55 level. (i.e. 88% of
XA and 224% of BC leg).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading in
oversold zone which indicates up side momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover which suggest possibilities of rebound in
the prices on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR buy in the
range of 57.90 with SL of 57.60 for target of 58.50 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
at 67.50 levels on daily chart and price has retested its
breakout trend line at 67.40 levels.
On daily chart price has taken support of its 61.80% Fib-
onacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 68.35 with SL of 68.15 for target of 68.85.
Currency Highlights
04th
Jan’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.78 68.09 68.29 68.40 68.60 68.71 69.02
JPYINR 57.27 57.69 57.85 58.11 58.27 58.53 58.95

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
04th
Jan’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has taken support of its horizontal trend line
at 70.60 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has also
taken support of its falling trend line at 70.70 levels on
daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 15 HEMA on hourly
chart, which suggest further bullishness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI has moved up
form its oversold zone, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on 4 hourly chart, which support our bullish view
to the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 72 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its rising channel
pattern at 85 levels on daily chart. The pair has been
facing resistance of its falling trend line at 86.10 levels
on daily chart. The prices have been facing resistance of
its horizontal line at 86 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 50 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend looks negative.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive cross over on daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further weakness in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
83.40 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.07 83.56 83.85 84.05 84.34 84.54 85.03
EURINR 70.47 70.92 71.08 71.37 71.53 71.82 72.27

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
04th
Jan’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
04.01.17 02:30 PM Final Services PMI 53.1 53.1 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
04.01.17 03:00 PM Construction PMI 52.8 52.6 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
04.01.17 03:30 PM CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.6% 01% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR

5. Currency Highlights
04th
Jan’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2017.01.04 09:09:52 +05'30'