#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights : India's Manufacturing PMI grew by 0.2 points to 50.7-mark in May

1. Currency Highlights
02nd
June’2016
HighLights:
 India's Manufacturing PMI grew by 0.2 points to 50.7-mark in May
 US ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded to 51.3-mark in last month
 Euro Zone Final Manufacturing PMI at 51.5-level in the previous
month
 UK’s Manufacturing PMI gained by 0.7 points to 50.1-mark in May
Indian Rupee continued to remain under pressure for third consecutive
day and declined by 19 paise to end at 67.45 against the US dollar on
Wednesday. The currency had depreciated on account of month end dol-
lar demand from importers along with plunge in manufacturing data of the
country. Further, strength in the dollar index on estimates of hike in inter-
est rates by the Federal Reserve in near future coupled with outflow of
foreign capital kept pressure on the currency. Foreign portfolio investors
(FPIs) turned net sellers after two days of buying spree and sold shares
worth a net Rs 114.52 crore on Tuesday, as per the provisional data re-
leased by the stock exchanges. .
However, sharp fall in the currency was cushioned due to upside movement in the domestic market sentiments after robust
macro economic data on Tuesday. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 67.1125 to 67.4625 in Wednesday’s trading session.
The currency has lost around 42 paise in last three trading sessions. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reference rate for dollar
was seen at 67.3526 and Euro stood at 74.9634 on Wednesday. India's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew
by 0.2 points to 50.7-mark in May from 50.5-level in April
US Dollar Index declined around 0.5 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned
due to favourable economic data from the country. US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI expanded
by 0.5 points to 51.3-mark in May as against a rise of 50.8-level in April. Construction Spending dropped by 1.8 percent in April
from rise of 1.5 percent a month ago. ISM Manufacturing Prices rose to 63.5-level in last month with respect to 59-mark in
April.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.5 percent on Wednesday on account of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness
in the dollar index coupled with mixed economic data from the region led to upside in the currency. Spanish Manufacturing
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 1.7 points to 51.8-mark in May as against a rise of 53.5-level in April. Italian
Manufacturing PMI dropped by 1.5 points to 52.4-level in last month from 53.9-mark in April. German Final Manufacturing
PMI fell by 0.3 points to 52.1-mark in May with respect to 52.4-level a month ago. Euro Zone Final Manufacturing PMI un-
changed at 51.5-level in the previous month. The Sterling Pound plunged around 0.4 percent in Wednesday’s trade on account
of weak global market sentiments in early part of the trade. However, weaker dollar index along with optimistic economic data
from the country restricted sharp fall in the currency. UK’s Manufacturing PMI gained by 0.7 points to 50.1-mark in May as
against a rise of 49.4-level in April. Net Lending to Individuals was at 1.6 billion Pounds in April from 9.2 billion Pounds a month
ago.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.54 95.83 (0.29) (0.30)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.42 67.23 0.19 0.28
USD/INR(NseJune) 67.75 67.60 0.15 0.22
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.23 74.82 0.41 0.54
EUR/INR(NseJune) 75.71 75.55 0.16 0.21
GBP/INR(Spot) 97.47 97.42 0.05 0.05
GBP/INR(NseJune) 97.95 98.80 (0.85) (0.87)
JPY/INR(NseJune) 61.80 60.94 0.86 1.39
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has been trading in rising channel pattern
and price has taken support of its lower band of channel
pattern 61.20 levels on 4 hourly chart. Prices have been taken
resistance of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels form its previ-
ous down move of 64 to 61 levels.
However , Pair has been trading above its 50 hourly exponen-
tial moving average which suggest short term trend remains
Up.
On 4 hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved
above its 45 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on 4 hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
bullish.
For now we expect prices to move lower higher 62.10 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been moving in its rising channel formation
from past few weeks and price has taken support of its lower
band of channel pattern at 67 levels on 4 hourly chart.
Moreover, price have been trading above of its 21 four hourly
exponential moving average which suggest near term trend
remains up. So any dips in the prices towards 67.50 level,
used as buying opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 60 levels on 4
hourly chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover and
trading above its single line on 4 hourly chart, which gives
positive confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 68 levels
in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
02nd
June’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.94 67.29 67.52 67.64 67.87 67.99 68.34
JPYINR 59.70 60.62 61.23 61.54 62.15 62.46 63.38

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
02nd
June’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in ascending triangle pattern and
taken support of its lower band of pattern at 75.10 levels on
4 hourly chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trading
above its 21 hourly exponential moving average which indi-
cates that trend is remains positive.
The pair has taken support of its 38.20% Fibonacci retrace-
ment levels on hourly chart form its previous rally of 74 to 77
levels.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 40 lev-
els on 4 hourly chart which gives the signs of bullishness to
the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on
the pair.
Technical View:
The prices have been moving in rising wedge formation form
past few days and price has faced resistance of its upper
band of wedge pattern at 99.10 levels on 4 hourly chart.
Moreover, price has formed evening star candle stick
pattern on 4 hourly chart which gives negative confirmation
to the prices.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 hourly
exponential moving average which indicates that medium
term trend is remains bearish.
A momentum oscillator RSI has given negative divergence
on 4 hourly chart 58 levels which gives the sign of bearish-
ness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on 4 hourly chart which support our bearish view
on the pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 96.75 97.33 97.62 97.91 98.20 98.49 99.07
EURINR 74.14 74.82 75.25 75.50 75.93 76.18 76.86

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
02.06.16 12:30 pm Spanish Unemployment Change -110.0K -83.60K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; JPYINR
02.06.16 5:00pm Challenger Job Cuts y/y 5.80% Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
02.06.16 5:45pm ADP Non-Farm Employment
Change
156K 177K Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
02.06.16 6:00pm ECB Press Conference More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; EURINR
02.06.16 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 268K 270K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
02.06.16 8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 71B
02.06.16 8:30pm Crude Oil Inventories -4.2M 50.5
02nd
June’2016

5. Currency Highlights
02nd
June’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.06.02 08:29:52 +05'30'