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SCREENING
.
1
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
What is Screening
• Screening is the testing of apparently healthy
populations to identify previously undiagnosed diseases
or people at high risk of developing a disease.
• Screening aims to detect early disease before it
becomes symptomatic.
• Screening is an important aspect of prevention, but not
all diseases are suitable for screening.
2
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Definitions
1. Screening program -- comprehensive disease control
activity based on the identification and treatment of
persons with either unrecognized disease or
unrecognized risk factors for disease.
2. Screening test -- specific technology (survey
questionnaire, physical observation or measurement,
laboratory test, radiological procedure, etc.) used to help
identify persons with unrecognized disease or
unrecognized risk factors for disease.
Definitions
3
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Definitions
3. Primary prevention -- disease control approach based on the
elimination or reduction of risk factors for disease. Primary
prevention aims to prevent the occurrence of disease. Primary
prevention may use screening tests to identify persons with risk
factors.
4. Secondary prevention -- disease control approach based on the
active identification and treatment of persons with unrecognized
disease. Secondary prevention aims to prevent the occurrence of
adverse outcomes from disease (such as fatal outcomes), without
necessarily reducing the occurrence of disease. Secondary
prevention must screen to identify persons with unrecognized
disease
4
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Generalities
1. Screening often implies a public health related
activity involving asymptomatic or healthy
subjects coming from the general population.
2. Case-finding refers to special clinical efforts to
recognize disease among persons who
consult a health professional.
Generalities
5
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Screening, Case financing and Diagnostic
test
Terminology
for testing
Target Persons
Screening Apparently healthy individuals who
are not seeking health care
Case-finding To detect disease in individuals
seeking health care for other
reasons
Diagnostic
tests
To confirm or disprove the existence
of disease in patients presenting
with complaints (Symptoms & signs
6
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
The Principles of Screening
• The choice of disease for which
to screen;
• There should be longer latent or
early a symptomatic stage
• Facilities for confirmation of
diagnosis must be available
• The availability of a treatment
for those found to have the
disease;
• The relative costs of the
screening.
7
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
• The disease must be an important health problem.
• There should be a recognizable latent or early symptomatic
stage.
• The natural history of the disease, including latent to
declared disease, should be adequately understood.
8
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
When to screen?
9
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
• There should be a suitable test or examination.
• The test should be acceptable to the population.
10
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Examples of screening
• Screening the healthy people for hypertension
• Screening healthy adults for diabetes
• Screening of high-risk population for HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis
• Screening of pregnant ladies for anemia/ Cervical cancers
etc
11 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Screening and diagnostic tests
Screening tests Diagnostic tests
Conducted on apparently
health population
Conducted on sick or with
some indications
Applied to groups or
communities
Applied to the patients under
consideration
The initiative comes from the
investigator or some agency
Initiative based on patient
complaints
The objectives are
predominantly preventive
The objective is to modify the
treatment on basis of tests
12
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Screening and diagnostic tests
Screening tests Diagnostic tests
Based on one criterion or cut-
off point
Based on clinical evaluation of
signs and symptoms
Less expensive More expensive
Less accurate More accurate
13
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
True Disease Status
Screening
Test
Positive Negative Total
Positive True Positives
(TP)
False Positives
(FP)
TP+FP
Negative False Negatives
(FN)
True Negatives
(TN)
FN+TN
Total TP+FN FP+TN TP+FP+FN+TN
Outcomes of a Screening Test
14 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
• There should be an acceptable treatment for the patients
with recognized disease.
• There should be facilities for diagnosis
and treatment should be available.
• There should be an agreed policy on whom to treat as
patients.
15
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
• The cost of case finding (including diagnosis and treatment of
patients diagnosed) should be economically balanced in relation to
possible expenditure on medical care as a whole.
• Case finding should be a continuing process and not a "once for all"
project.
16
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Uses of Screening
Case detection Objectively done to identify the
unrecognized diseases e.g.
neonatal screening
Control of disease Objectively done to identify the
diseases to prevent transmission
in the community
Epidemiology /
Research
Initial screening to identify the
prevalence subsequent for
research purpose
Educational
Opportunities
Objectively done for health
education purposes e.g. screening
of diabetics
17
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Screening Strategies
Mass
Screening
Screening of whole population or
subgroups of population e.g. Screening
of all adults for tuberculosis
High risk or
Selective
Screening is applied to selectively to
high-risk for a particular health problem
or disease
Multiphase
Screening
The people are subjected to more than
one screening test. First screening for
identification of suspect and second for
confirmation of diseases
18
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Latent or Incubation period
Time period lapse between the start of the
disease process up to the appearance of
sign and symptoms of disease.
Disease
onset
Possible
detectio
n
Final
critical
point
Usual time
of
diagnosis
Latent/ incubation
period
outcom
e
A B C D
19
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
• Time between possible detection and the usual time of
diagnosis by signs and symptoms is the “Lead Time”
• Time between first possible detection and the finial critical
detection is the “Screening Time”
Screening time and lead time
Disease
onset
Possible
detectio
n
Final
critical
point
Usual time
of
diagnosis
outcom
e
Screening
time
Lead time
A B C D
20
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Concept of Latent period, Screening
time and Lead time
Disease
onset
Possible
detection
Final critical
point
Usual time
of
diagnosis
Latent/ incubation
period
outcome
Disease
onset
Possible
detection
Final
critical
point
Usual time of
diagnosis
outcome
Screening
time
Lead time
A B C D
21
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Summary
• Screening is the testing of apparently healthy populations
to identify previously undiagnosed diseases or people at
high risk of developing a disease.
• Principles of Screening: disease, test, treatment and cost.
What is the next step?
Define the validity of the screening test and
put screening to use in the population.
22
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Terms Related to
Screening Tests
• Validity - relates to accuracy (correctness)
• Reliability - repeatability
• Yield - the # of tests that can be done in a time period
23
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Terms Related to Screening Tests (cont’d)
• Sensitivity - ability of a test to identify those who
have disease
• Specificity - ability of a test to exclude those who
don’t have disease
24
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Terms Related to Screening Tests
(cont’d)
• Tests with dichotomous results – tests that give either
positive or negative results
• Tests of continuous variables – tests that do not yield
obvious “positive” or “negative” results, but require a
cutoff level to be established as criteria for
distinguishing between “positive” and “negative”
groups
25
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
How will you test the accuracy of
screening test?
• Identify the screening test to be evaluated
• Identify the confirmatory test for counter testing also
known as “Gold Standard Test”
• Screened the population of interest by screening test
• Apply counter test or Gold Standard Test to all the
positive and negative identify by screening test
• Determine the accuracy by 2x2 Table analysis
26
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Examples of Screening and Gold
Standard
Disease Screening test Gold Standard or
Counter test
Diabetes Blood Glucose Glucose tolerance
test
Brain tumor EEG CT Scan
Breast
cancer
Mammography FNA
(histopathology)
Tuberculosi
s
Tuberculin test Sputum for AFB
27
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Sensitivity
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
Sensitivity =
a
a + c
True positive
True positive + False
Negative
X 100
28
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Specificity
X 100
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
29
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Percentage of false Positive
Percentage false
positive =
b
b + d
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
30
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Percentage of false negative
X 100
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
31
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Predictive value of positive test (PPV)
a
a + b
True Positive X 100
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
32
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Predictive value of Negative test (NPV)
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
33
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Apparent or false prevalence
False/apparent
prevalence =
a +
G. total
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
34
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
True Prevalence
a +c
G. total Total patient Screened
X
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
35
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Accuracy of the test
Dis. Yes Dis. No Total
Dis.
yes
a
(True
positive)
b
(False
Positive)
a + b
Dis. No c
(False
Negative)
d
(True
Negative)
c + d
Total a + c b + d Grand total
36
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Sensitivity and Specificity
• Sensitivity and specificity has reciprocal
relationship with each other
• If we increase the sensitivity of a test
specificity will be decreased
37
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Sensitivity and specificity
At cut-off 120 mg all above those will be declared as disease
Which are included as disease by the test
Which are normal but declared as disease (b/ False Positive)
Which are disease but excluded by the test (d/ False Negative)
Comment on Sensitivity and specificity
38
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Conclusion at cut-off value 120 mg / 100 ml
• Nearly 99% of those having diabetes will be picked up by the
test that means test become highly sensitive
• The test is falsely including a large number of normal persons
as the diseased increasing the false positive
• The increasing false positive means that the ability of the test to
exclude those not having the disease is decreasing (decrease in
specificity)
39
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Sensitivity and specificity
a
c
d b
40
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Conclusion at cut-off value 160 mg / 100 ml
• Nearly99% of those not having the diabetes will be
excluded by the test mean test become highly specific
(increasing specificity)
• The test will include many of the diseased persons as the
normal increasing the false negative cases
• Increasing number of false negative mean the ability of test
to pick up the diseased people is decreasing (decreasing the
sensitivity)
41
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Sensitivity and specificity
a
b
d
c
42
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Conclusion at cut-off value 140 mg/100
ml
• The ability of the test to include or exclude the diseased
person is nearly equal or critical (Balance sensitivity and
specificity)
• The number of false positive and false negative are also in
balance
• Therefore the point B is the suitable cut-off value for diabetic
screening with sensitivity and specificity nearly above 90%
43
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Reliability of the Screening tests
What are the factors that determine the
reliability of screening tests?
44
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Three type of factors effect the
reliability of test
45
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Observational Variation
• Intra-observer Variations (variation in
observation when a single observer repeat
the same observation)
• Inter-observer Variation (Different observers
when the same observation is repeated by
different observers
46
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
•Use of Multiple Screening Tests
Sequential (Two-stage) Testing
Simultaneous Testing
47
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Hypothetical Two-Stage Screening
Only Pos. Test 1 are
given Test 2
48
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Hypothetical Two-Stage Screening (cont.)
TEST 2 (Glucose Tolerance Test)
Sensitivity = 90%
Specificity = 90%
DIABETES
+ -
TEST
RESULTS +
315 190 505
- 35 1710 1745
350 1900 2250
Net Sensitivity = 315/500 = 63%
Net Specificity = 7600 + 1710 = 98%
9500 49
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Predictive Value
50
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Prevalence & Predictive Value
Note: Test has 95%
sensitivity and 95%
specificity
51
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Specificity &
Predictive Value
As specificity increases,
positive predictive value
increases.
As sensitivity increases, positive
predictive value also increases, but
to a much lesser extent.
52
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
53
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
54
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Study designs for screening
1. Correlation Studies
Use:
Description of population
Strength:
Suggest possibility of benefit
Limitation:
Can’t test hypothesis 55
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Study designs for screening
2. Analytical Studies
Types:
Case-control
Cohorts
Use:
Comparison
of rates
Advantage:
 Test
hypothesis
Limitation:
Selection
Lead time
56
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Study designs for screening
3. Randomized Trials
Use:
Comparison of rates
Strength:
Most valid test of hypothesis
Limitation:
Cost, ethics & feasibility 57
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Review Questions (Developed by the
Supercourse team)
• What is screening and what types of screening can you name?
• What are the objectives of screening?
• For what type of diseases would it be appropriate to set up
screening programs? List characteristics.
• How is screening program evaluated?
58
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
59
DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
Thank You
Kingsoft Office
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60DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF
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Screening lecture by DR TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS

  • 2. What is Screening • Screening is the testing of apparently healthy populations to identify previously undiagnosed diseases or people at high risk of developing a disease. • Screening aims to detect early disease before it becomes symptomatic. • Screening is an important aspect of prevention, but not all diseases are suitable for screening. 2 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 3. Definitions 1. Screening program -- comprehensive disease control activity based on the identification and treatment of persons with either unrecognized disease or unrecognized risk factors for disease. 2. Screening test -- specific technology (survey questionnaire, physical observation or measurement, laboratory test, radiological procedure, etc.) used to help identify persons with unrecognized disease or unrecognized risk factors for disease. Definitions 3 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 4. Definitions 3. Primary prevention -- disease control approach based on the elimination or reduction of risk factors for disease. Primary prevention aims to prevent the occurrence of disease. Primary prevention may use screening tests to identify persons with risk factors. 4. Secondary prevention -- disease control approach based on the active identification and treatment of persons with unrecognized disease. Secondary prevention aims to prevent the occurrence of adverse outcomes from disease (such as fatal outcomes), without necessarily reducing the occurrence of disease. Secondary prevention must screen to identify persons with unrecognized disease 4 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 5. Generalities 1. Screening often implies a public health related activity involving asymptomatic or healthy subjects coming from the general population. 2. Case-finding refers to special clinical efforts to recognize disease among persons who consult a health professional. Generalities 5 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 6. Screening, Case financing and Diagnostic test Terminology for testing Target Persons Screening Apparently healthy individuals who are not seeking health care Case-finding To detect disease in individuals seeking health care for other reasons Diagnostic tests To confirm or disprove the existence of disease in patients presenting with complaints (Symptoms & signs 6 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 7. The Principles of Screening • The choice of disease for which to screen; • There should be longer latent or early a symptomatic stage • Facilities for confirmation of diagnosis must be available • The availability of a treatment for those found to have the disease; • The relative costs of the screening. 7 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 8. • The disease must be an important health problem. • There should be a recognizable latent or early symptomatic stage. • The natural history of the disease, including latent to declared disease, should be adequately understood. 8 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 9. When to screen? 9 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 10. • There should be a suitable test or examination. • The test should be acceptable to the population. 10 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 11. Examples of screening • Screening the healthy people for hypertension • Screening healthy adults for diabetes • Screening of high-risk population for HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis • Screening of pregnant ladies for anemia/ Cervical cancers etc 11 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 12. Screening and diagnostic tests Screening tests Diagnostic tests Conducted on apparently health population Conducted on sick or with some indications Applied to groups or communities Applied to the patients under consideration The initiative comes from the investigator or some agency Initiative based on patient complaints The objectives are predominantly preventive The objective is to modify the treatment on basis of tests 12 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 13. Screening and diagnostic tests Screening tests Diagnostic tests Based on one criterion or cut- off point Based on clinical evaluation of signs and symptoms Less expensive More expensive Less accurate More accurate 13 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 14. True Disease Status Screening Test Positive Negative Total Positive True Positives (TP) False Positives (FP) TP+FP Negative False Negatives (FN) True Negatives (TN) FN+TN Total TP+FN FP+TN TP+FP+FN+TN Outcomes of a Screening Test 14 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 15. • There should be an acceptable treatment for the patients with recognized disease. • There should be facilities for diagnosis and treatment should be available. • There should be an agreed policy on whom to treat as patients. 15 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 16. • The cost of case finding (including diagnosis and treatment of patients diagnosed) should be economically balanced in relation to possible expenditure on medical care as a whole. • Case finding should be a continuing process and not a "once for all" project. 16 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 17. Uses of Screening Case detection Objectively done to identify the unrecognized diseases e.g. neonatal screening Control of disease Objectively done to identify the diseases to prevent transmission in the community Epidemiology / Research Initial screening to identify the prevalence subsequent for research purpose Educational Opportunities Objectively done for health education purposes e.g. screening of diabetics 17 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 18. Screening Strategies Mass Screening Screening of whole population or subgroups of population e.g. Screening of all adults for tuberculosis High risk or Selective Screening is applied to selectively to high-risk for a particular health problem or disease Multiphase Screening The people are subjected to more than one screening test. First screening for identification of suspect and second for confirmation of diseases 18 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 19. Latent or Incubation period Time period lapse between the start of the disease process up to the appearance of sign and symptoms of disease. Disease onset Possible detectio n Final critical point Usual time of diagnosis Latent/ incubation period outcom e A B C D 19 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 20. • Time between possible detection and the usual time of diagnosis by signs and symptoms is the “Lead Time” • Time between first possible detection and the finial critical detection is the “Screening Time” Screening time and lead time Disease onset Possible detectio n Final critical point Usual time of diagnosis outcom e Screening time Lead time A B C D 20 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 21. Concept of Latent period, Screening time and Lead time Disease onset Possible detection Final critical point Usual time of diagnosis Latent/ incubation period outcome Disease onset Possible detection Final critical point Usual time of diagnosis outcome Screening time Lead time A B C D 21 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 22. Summary • Screening is the testing of apparently healthy populations to identify previously undiagnosed diseases or people at high risk of developing a disease. • Principles of Screening: disease, test, treatment and cost. What is the next step? Define the validity of the screening test and put screening to use in the population. 22 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 23. Terms Related to Screening Tests • Validity - relates to accuracy (correctness) • Reliability - repeatability • Yield - the # of tests that can be done in a time period 23 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 24. Terms Related to Screening Tests (cont’d) • Sensitivity - ability of a test to identify those who have disease • Specificity - ability of a test to exclude those who don’t have disease 24 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 25. Terms Related to Screening Tests (cont’d) • Tests with dichotomous results – tests that give either positive or negative results • Tests of continuous variables – tests that do not yield obvious “positive” or “negative” results, but require a cutoff level to be established as criteria for distinguishing between “positive” and “negative” groups 25 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 26. How will you test the accuracy of screening test? • Identify the screening test to be evaluated • Identify the confirmatory test for counter testing also known as “Gold Standard Test” • Screened the population of interest by screening test • Apply counter test or Gold Standard Test to all the positive and negative identify by screening test • Determine the accuracy by 2x2 Table analysis 26 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 27. Examples of Screening and Gold Standard Disease Screening test Gold Standard or Counter test Diabetes Blood Glucose Glucose tolerance test Brain tumor EEG CT Scan Breast cancer Mammography FNA (histopathology) Tuberculosi s Tuberculin test Sputum for AFB 27 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 28. Sensitivity Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total Sensitivity = a a + c True positive True positive + False Negative X 100 28 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 29. Specificity X 100 Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 29 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 30. Percentage of false Positive Percentage false positive = b b + d Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 30 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 31. Percentage of false negative X 100 Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 31 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 32. Predictive value of positive test (PPV) a a + b True Positive X 100 Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 32 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 33. Predictive value of Negative test (NPV) Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 33 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 34. Apparent or false prevalence False/apparent prevalence = a + G. total Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 34 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 35. True Prevalence a +c G. total Total patient Screened X Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 35 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 36. Accuracy of the test Dis. Yes Dis. No Total Dis. yes a (True positive) b (False Positive) a + b Dis. No c (False Negative) d (True Negative) c + d Total a + c b + d Grand total 36 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 37. Sensitivity and Specificity • Sensitivity and specificity has reciprocal relationship with each other • If we increase the sensitivity of a test specificity will be decreased 37 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 38. Sensitivity and specificity At cut-off 120 mg all above those will be declared as disease Which are included as disease by the test Which are normal but declared as disease (b/ False Positive) Which are disease but excluded by the test (d/ False Negative) Comment on Sensitivity and specificity 38 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 39. Conclusion at cut-off value 120 mg / 100 ml • Nearly 99% of those having diabetes will be picked up by the test that means test become highly sensitive • The test is falsely including a large number of normal persons as the diseased increasing the false positive • The increasing false positive means that the ability of the test to exclude those not having the disease is decreasing (decrease in specificity) 39 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 40. Sensitivity and specificity a c d b 40 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 41. Conclusion at cut-off value 160 mg / 100 ml • Nearly99% of those not having the diabetes will be excluded by the test mean test become highly specific (increasing specificity) • The test will include many of the diseased persons as the normal increasing the false negative cases • Increasing number of false negative mean the ability of test to pick up the diseased people is decreasing (decreasing the sensitivity) 41 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 42. Sensitivity and specificity a b d c 42 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 43. Conclusion at cut-off value 140 mg/100 ml • The ability of the test to include or exclude the diseased person is nearly equal or critical (Balance sensitivity and specificity) • The number of false positive and false negative are also in balance • Therefore the point B is the suitable cut-off value for diabetic screening with sensitivity and specificity nearly above 90% 43 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 44. Reliability of the Screening tests What are the factors that determine the reliability of screening tests? 44 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 45. Three type of factors effect the reliability of test 45 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 46. Observational Variation • Intra-observer Variations (variation in observation when a single observer repeat the same observation) • Inter-observer Variation (Different observers when the same observation is repeated by different observers 46 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 47. •Use of Multiple Screening Tests Sequential (Two-stage) Testing Simultaneous Testing 47 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 48. Hypothetical Two-Stage Screening Only Pos. Test 1 are given Test 2 48 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 49. Hypothetical Two-Stage Screening (cont.) TEST 2 (Glucose Tolerance Test) Sensitivity = 90% Specificity = 90% DIABETES + - TEST RESULTS + 315 190 505 - 35 1710 1745 350 1900 2250 Net Sensitivity = 315/500 = 63% Net Specificity = 7600 + 1710 = 98% 9500 49 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 50. Predictive Value 50 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 51. Prevalence & Predictive Value Note: Test has 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity 51 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 52. Specificity & Predictive Value As specificity increases, positive predictive value increases. As sensitivity increases, positive predictive value also increases, but to a much lesser extent. 52 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 55. Study designs for screening 1. Correlation Studies Use: Description of population Strength: Suggest possibility of benefit Limitation: Can’t test hypothesis 55 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 56. Study designs for screening 2. Analytical Studies Types: Case-control Cohorts Use: Comparison of rates Advantage:  Test hypothesis Limitation: Selection Lead time 56 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 57. Study designs for screening 3. Randomized Trials Use: Comparison of rates Strength: Most valid test of hypothesis Limitation: Cost, ethics & feasibility 57 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 58. Review Questions (Developed by the Supercourse team) • What is screening and what types of screening can you name? • What are the objectives of screening? • For what type of diseases would it be appropriate to set up screening programs? List characteristics. • How is screening program evaluated? 58 DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS
  • 60. Thank You Kingsoft Office MakePresentation muchmore fun 60DR MUHAMMAD TAUSEEF JAVED SIMS