This document discusses forecasting methods. It defines forecasting and identifies different types of forecasts. It discusses time horizons, approaches to forecasting including qualitative and quantitative methods, and steps in the forecasting process. It also describes averaging techniques like moving averages and exponential smoothing that are used to forecast and determine what makes a good forecast.
A method that uses measurable, historical data observations, to make forecasts by calculating the weighted average of the current period’s actual value and forecast, with a trend adjustment added in
This powerpoint presentation was done as part of the course STAT 591 titled Mater's Seminar during Third semester of MSc. Agricultural Statistics at Agricultural College, Bapatla under ANGRAU, Andhra Pradesh.
A method that uses measurable, historical data observations, to make forecasts by calculating the weighted average of the current period’s actual value and forecast, with a trend adjustment added in
This powerpoint presentation was done as part of the course STAT 591 titled Mater's Seminar during Third semester of MSc. Agricultural Statistics at Agricultural College, Bapatla under ANGRAU, Andhra Pradesh.
A Weighted Moving Average puts more weight on recent data and less on past data. This is done by multiplying each bar’s price by a weighting factor. because of its unique calculation.
Interventions required to meet business objectives - from Forecasting Methods,
Forecast Accuracy / Error Reduction,
Integrate – Sales Forecast / Production to undertaking a CPFR
A Weighted Moving Average puts more weight on recent data and less on past data. This is done by multiplying each bar’s price by a weighting factor. because of its unique calculation.
Interventions required to meet business objectives - from Forecasting Methods,
Forecast Accuracy / Error Reduction,
Integrate – Sales Forecast / Production to undertaking a CPFR
The power point presentation will help you understand Demand Estimation and Forecast in nutshell. It covers:
1) Estimation and its Methods
2) Forecast and its purpose
3) Steps to Forecast
4) Scope of Forecasting
5) Determinants for Demand Forecast
Forecasting is the estimation of relevant future events based on the past events and happenings. It involves a detailed analysis of the past and present events to get a clear cut idea of the probable events in the future.
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Sales & Operations Planning is popularly known as S&OP and is a process which has evolved from SCM. It looks at balancing demand with supply and can be applied in most of the industries. The phase- wise process is depicted in the presentation
A Kanban board is a work and workflow visualization tool that enables you to optimize the flow of your work. It utilizes a visual cues that tell you what to produce, how much to produce and when to produce it. This presentation contains brief information related to Kanban board like what is Kanban board, how Kanban works and how to start with Kanban board.
Parametric estimation is one of the four primary methods that project companies use to produce estimates for the cost, duration and effort of a project.
For parametric estimation, the person in charge of the estimates will model (or describe) the project using a set of algorithms. For instance: let’s say that your project includes carrying out a survey of 300 people. Each interview contains 20 multiple-choice questions, and past experience has shown that they take 10 minutes to administer. According to parametric estimation, the total effort for this task will be:
E = nb of interviews × 10 minutes = 3000 minutes = 5 hours
Combining forecast from different models has shown to perform better than single forecast in most time series. To improve the quality of forecast we can go for combining forecast. We study the effect of decomposing a series into multiple components and performing forecasts on each component separately... The original series is decomposed into trend, seasonality and an irregular component for each series. The statistical methods such as ARIMA, Holt-Winter have been used to forecast these components. In this paper we focus on how the best models of one series can be applied to similar frequency pattern series for forecasting using association mining. The proposed method forecasted value has been compared with Holt Winter method and shown that the results are better than Holt Winter method
Forecasting is the process of making predictions of the future based on past and present data and analysis of trends. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. After gathering information about various aspects of the market and demand from primary and secondary sources, an attempt may be made to estimate future demand.
In many organizations, bottom up estimation of software development projects is still the way to go. Management feels that top-down (parametric) estimation models require too much effort and cost. In this presentation, a random selection of 10 bids are analyzed and the bottom-up estimates and top-down estimates are compared with regard to accuracy and effort spend.
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A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
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Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
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Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
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Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
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Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
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2. Learning objectives
∗ Define and understand forecasting
∗ Identify the different types of forecasts
∗ Identify and discuss the various time horizons
∗ Discuss different approaches to forecasting
∗ Determine the steps in the forecasting process
∗ Describe and solve averaging techniques in
forecasting
3. Learning objectives (cont.)
∗ Solve simple moving average problems
∗ Solve exponential smoothing problems
∗ Determine what constitutes a good forecast
∗ Compare qualitative and quantitative forecasting
methods.
4. 2.1 Introduction
∗ Forecasting =
∗ Preface to planning
∗ Attempt to predict future value of a changing variable
∗ Subjective or objective
∗ Addresses:
∗ Macro-circumstances
∗ Competitiveness
∗ Market tendencies
∗ Sourcing funds required.
5. Examples of Forecasts
Management Information Services – could predict new technology, eg.
Advances in internet
Human Resources – could answer the question “will there be a need
to employ more people in the future
Goods and service design – needs of the customer in the
future
Finance – need for capital replacement, cash flows,
budgets
Operations – scheduling, inventory planning, labour
requirements, and project management
Marketing – prices for new products, promotional
plans, competition analysis
6. 2.2 The uses of forecasts
∗ Plan the system as a whole (long-range)
∗ Plan the use of the system
∗ Business forecasting (predict demand)
∗ Forecasting is never an exact science
∗ Context determines choice of method.
7. 2.3 Features common to all forecasts
∗ Assumption that past trends will be present in future
∗ No precise prediction can be made
∗ Groups more accurate
∗ Longer time horizon is less reliable.
8. 2.4 Time horizons for doing forecasts
∗ Short-range (few weeks – 12 months)
∗ More accurate
∗ Medium-range (12 months – 5 years)
∗ Long-range (5 years +)
∗ Medium and long-range: deal with organisation as a whole.
9. 2.4 Time horizons for doing forecasts
(cont.)
Time Horizon Accuracy Frequency Management Method
Level
PROCESS Long term Medium Single Top Qual or Quan
DESIGN
CAPACITY Long term Medium Single Top Qual or Quan
PLANNING
AGGREGATE Medium term High Few Middle Casual or time
PLANNING* series
SCHEDULING Short term Very high Many Lower Time series
INVENTORY M/ Short term Very high Many Lower Time series
MENT
* Capacity planning for medium term 3-18 months
10. 2.5 Requirements of an accurate forecast
∗ Use simple technique
∗ Accuracy
∗ Cost effectiveness
∗ Meaningful units
∗ Timely
∗ Reliable
∗ Should be in writing.
12. 2.7 Important situational factors to be
considered
∗ Accuracy and cost – trade off between accuracy and cost
∗ Availability of data – large pool of data and relevant
∗ Time span – the longer it is the less accurate it is
∗ Nature of the goods and services – life cycle, seasonal
variations
∗ Changes in the market - difficult for new products
∗ Use or decision factors – method used and subject should
be closely related
13. 2.8 Reasons for ineffective forecasts
∗ Failure to select applicable model
∗ Inability to recognise that forecasting must form an integral
part of the business
∗ Neglecting to monitor the accuracy of the forecast
∗ Failure to involve all of the relevant people
∗ Inability to realise that the forecast will be wrong
∗ Forecasting of incorrect items is not helpful.
14. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting
∗ Qualitative – mainly judgments of the parties involved
∗ Quantitative – calculations & statistical techniques
∗ Associative forecasting techniques – use of equations that
are descriptive of the variables used. A variable is a factor
that will influence the composition of a forecast eg. Price of
product, weather etc
15. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting
∗ Categories of forecasting techniques:
∗ Associative methods – equations that
describe the variables
∗ Judgmental forecasts – rely on subjective
judgment of an individual
∗ Time series forecasts – data is manipulated
using mathematical techniques
16. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting
∗ Qualitative approach:
∗ Relied upon when hard data not available
∗ Used when forecast required in a hurry
∗ Approaches:
∗ Consumer surveys – very expensive, validity questionable
∗ Jury of executive opinion – top level managers, long term
forecast
∗ Sales-force opinion – grassroots method, very questionable
∗ Delphi method – respondents outside company
∗ Educated guess – personal insight. Highly unreliable
∗ Historical analogy – only if a similar product exists
17. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting (cont.)
∗ Quantitative approach:
∗ Time series data – use of historical data. Assumes future can be
based on history
∗ Trends – upward or downward movement
∗ Seasonality – mostly regular
∗ Cycles – e.g. stock market indicators
∗ Irregular variations – e.g. flood. Never include in a forecast
∗ Random variations – no logical explanation
19. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting
MOVING AVERAGE IN EXCEL
PERIOD DEMAND MOVING AVERAGE
1 100
2 250
3 220
4 210 =AVERAGE(B2:B5)
5 240 =AVERAGE(B3:B6)
6 255 =AVERAGE(B4:B7)
7 245 =AVERAGE(B5:B8)
8 195 =AVERAGE(B6:B9)
20. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting
∗ Quantitative techniques:
∗ Averaging techniques – the weighted moving average
∗ Very similar to moving average technique
∗ Moving average gives equal weight to all data
∗ Weighted moving average gives different weight to each data
21. 2.9 Weighted Moving Average
Month Sales ( ‘000) 3 period MA
January 240
February 250
March 230
April 220 (0.5 x 230)+ (0.3 x 250) + (0.2 x 240) = 238
May 270 (0.5 x 220)+ (0.3 x 230) + (0.2 x 250) = 229
June 250 (0.5 x 270)+ (0.3 x 220) + (0.2 x 230) = 247
July 255 (0.5 x 250)+ (0.3 x 270) + (0.2 x 220) = 250
22. 2.9 Problems with Moving Average
Longer MA period the more smoothed. Forecast less sensitive
to real fluctuations
MA does not identify any trends in the data. Time lag +/- 2
months
Extensive records of past history must be available
Weight allocated is arbitrary – trial and error needed
23. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting
∗ Quantitative techniques:
∗ Averaging techniques – exponential smoothing
∗ Well accepted because
∗ Calculations to test accuracy are easy
∗ Technique easy to understand
∗ Accuracy high for amount of effort required
∗ Only small amounts of historical data needed
∗ Requires fewer calculations to reach the same answer as other
methods
25. 2.9 Exponential Smoothing
∗ Predicted 142000 units period 1
∗ Actual 153000 units period 1
∗ α =0.2
Demand period 2 = 142000+0.2(153000-142000) = 144200units
26. 2.9 Approaches to forecasting
∗ Associative forecasting techniques
∗ The simple linear regression metho
∗ Most widely used method
∗ Try to find a linear relationship between two variables
27. Summary
∗ Defined forecasting
∗ Defined business forecasting
∗ Common features
∗ Requirements
∗ Steps
∗ Situational factors
∗ Reasons for ineffective forecasts
∗ Approaches to forecasting.
28. For Next Week
∗ Read pages 37 -66 Operations Management
∗ Prepare 1 paragraph discussing the use of forecasts
∗ Prepare 1 paragraph discussing the reasons for
ineffective forecasts.