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Demand Forecasting

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Demand Forecasting
SO WHAT “ IS ” DEMAND F ORECASTING?
[object Object],[object Object]
Characteristics of demand ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TYPES OF FORECASTS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why Study forecasting? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How? THE FORECAST Step 6 Monitor the forecast Step 5 Prepare the forecast Step 4 Gather and analyze data Step 3 Select a forecasting technique Step 2 Establish a time horizon Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast
LEVELS OF FORECASTING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KEY FACTORS FOR SELECTING A RIGHT METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DATA REQUIREMENTS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],It means the extent of explanation required from the study. Some techniques are based purely on the pattern of past data and may do quite well at forecasting, whereas many a times these are not useful by themselves since it is d ifficult to explain the causal factors underlying the forecast.
PATTERN OF DATA STUDIED The pattern of historical data is an important factor to consider. Though most of the times, the major pattern is that of a trend, there are also cyclic and seasonal patterns in the data. Certain techniques are best suited for capturing the different patterns in the data. Regression methods incorporates all these variations in data whereas trend analysis methods study these factors individually.
SO ,WE KNOW WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT!!! NOW LETS ANALYSE THE METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING.
2 MAIN CATEGORIES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
BUYERS INTENSION SURVEY ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ADVANTAGES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LIMITATIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EXPERTS OPINION METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ADVANTAGES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LIMITATIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DELPHI METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ADVANTAGES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LIMITATIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MARKET EXPERIMENTATION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ADVANTAGES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
COLLECTIVE OPINIONS METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
LIMITATIONS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ A RE YOU STILL THERE??”
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TIME SERIES MODELS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],TREND ANALYSIS
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
= EXPLAINED VARIATION 1 - = UNEXPLAINED VARIATION Explained variation - means the extent to which the independent variable explains the relative change in the dependent variable. Higher the explained variation, lower the error value leading to accurate forecast
 
MOVING AVERAGE METHOD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CASUAL MODELS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],REGRESSION MODEL
[object Object],[object Object]
STEPS IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
REGRESSION EQUATION ,[object Object],Where Y= value being forecasted = constant value = coefficients of regression = independent variable
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],BENEFITS OF EFFECTIVE DEMAND FORECASTING

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Demand Forecasting

  • 2. SO WHAT “ IS ” DEMAND F ORECASTING?
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  • 7. How? THE FORECAST Step 6 Monitor the forecast Step 5 Prepare the forecast Step 4 Gather and analyze data Step 3 Select a forecasting technique Step 2 Establish a time horizon Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast
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  • 12. PATTERN OF DATA STUDIED The pattern of historical data is an important factor to consider. Though most of the times, the major pattern is that of a trend, there are also cyclic and seasonal patterns in the data. Certain techniques are best suited for capturing the different patterns in the data. Regression methods incorporates all these variations in data whereas trend analysis methods study these factors individually.
  • 13. SO ,WE KNOW WHAT IT’S ALL ABOUT!!! NOW LETS ANALYSE THE METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING.
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  • 31. “ A RE YOU STILL THERE??”
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  • 35. = EXPLAINED VARIATION 1 - = UNEXPLAINED VARIATION Explained variation - means the extent to which the independent variable explains the relative change in the dependent variable. Higher the explained variation, lower the error value leading to accurate forecast
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