1. Name: zeeshan safdarName: zeeshan safdar
Topic: DemandTopic: Demand
ForecastingForecasting

2. Meaning of Demand Forecasting
Demand forecasting is the scientific
and analytical estimation of demand
for a product (service) for a
particular period of time.
It is the process of determining how
much of what products is needed
when and where.

3. Elements of a Good Forecast
Timely
AccurateReliable
Meaningful Written Easy to use

4. Criteria for a good forecasting
Accuracy
Simplicity
Economy
Availability
Durability

5. Techniques of Demand Forecasting
Subjective (Qualitative) methods: rely
on human judgment and opinion.
Buyers’ Opinion
Sales Force Composite
Market Simulation
Test Marketing
Experts’ Opinion

6. Techniques of Demand Forecasting
Quantitative methods: use
mathematical or simulation models
based on historical demand or
relationships between variables.
Trend Projection
Smoothing Techniques
Barometric techniques
Econometric techniques

7. Subjective Methods of Demand Forecasting
Consumers’ Opinion Survey
Buyers are asked about future buying
intentions of products, brand preferences
and quantities of purchase, response to an
increase in the price, or comparison with
competitor’s products.
Census Method: Involves contacting
each and every buyer
Sample Method: Involves only
representative sample of buyers

8. Subjective Methods of Demand
Forecasting
Opinion Survey
Salespersons are in direct contact
with the customers. Salespersons
are asked about estimated sales
targets in their respective sales
territories in a given period of time.
Contd…

9. Subjective Methods of Demand Forecasting
Test Marketing
Involves real markets in which
consumers actually buy a product
without the consciousness of being
observed.
product is actually sold in certain
segments of the market, regarded as
the “test market”.
Choice and number of test market(s)
and duration of test are very crucial to
the success of the results.
Contd….

10. Quantitative Methods of Demand Forecasting
Trend Projection
Statistical tool to predict future values of a variable on
the basis of time series data.
 Time series data are composed of:
Secular trend (T): change occurring consistently
over a long time and is relatively smooth in its path.
Seasonal trend (S): seasonal variations of the data
within a year
Cyclical trend (C): cyclical movement in the
demand for a product that may have a tendency to
recur in a few years

11. Quantitative Methods :
Barometric Techniques
Barometric Technique alerts businesses
to changes in the overall economic
conditions.
Helps in predicting future trends on the
basis of index of relevant economic
indicators especially when the past data
do not show a clear tendency of
movement in a particular direction.
Contd….

12. Limitations of Demand Forecasting
Change in Fashion
Consumers’ Psychology
Lack of Past Data
Uneconomical
Lack of Experienced Experts

13. practical study of

14. INTRODUCTION:
Engro Foods' Started their foods business
in 2006 with the launch of Olper's,
Highly passionate about providing millions
of people across the length and breadth of
Pakistan with the ultimate brand experience
Engro Foods is among the biggest and
fastest growing business in Pakistan with a
vision to cater to local needs with products
conforming to global standards.

15. Products of ENGRO FOODS
•OLPERS
•TARANG
•DOBALA
•OMORS
•DAIRY OMUNG
•TARAKA
•LASSI
•JUICES

16. FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN
ENGRO FOODS
A combination of three forecasting
methods is used. The methods are
used in combination for the purpose of
sales and demand forecasting:-

17. Qualitative Method
Using historical data and market
intelligence as a guide, ENGRO FOODS
management practices their own
judgment to determine the demand
forecast. A yearly demand plan is
forecasted in this way which is then
further divided into monthly, weekly and
daily plans accordingly.

18. Causal Method
Causal forecasting assumes that the
demand forecast is highly correlated with
certain factors in the environment such as
the state of the economy, interest rates,
and product pricing that can cause a
change in the demand.
An example is how by introducing a
product variant, such as TARANG, can
influence demand for the original product
that is OLPERS.

19. Opinion Poll Method
ENGRO FOODS collects opinions of those
who are supposed to possess the
knowledge of the market like sales
representatives, sales executives,
consultants and professional marketing
experts. In this way demand and sale
forecasting is done in ENGRO FOODS.

20. CONCLUSION &
RECOMMENDATIONS
•Demand forecasting is the scientific and
analytical estimation of demand for a product
(service) for a particular period of time.
•The engro foods used the opinion poll
method, qualitative method and casual
method for their forecasting of demand in the
market.
•They should use the trend and smoothing
techniques for the accurate and long term
forecasting.