Presented by Shirley Tarawali at the International Livestock Congress, Houston, Texas, 3-4 March 2016

1. The emerging middle class and
the world market for beef
Shirley Tarawali
Assistant Director General, International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya
Panel session at the International Livestock Congress,
Houston, Texas, 3-4 March 2016
ILRI/Stevie Mann

2. Animalsourcefoods: 5of6highestvalueglobalcommodities
(totalvalueofthesefive:overUSInt$700billion)
FAOSTAT 2015
(values for 2013)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Production(MT)millions
Netproductionvalue(Int$)billion
net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)
Cattle meat
$171 billion

3. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Millionmetrictonnes
developing
developed
developing at same
per cap. as
developed
(hypothetical)

4. Drivers of change: population
Anticipated change 2013 – 2050
Asia: +20%
Africa: +113%
Europe: -4%

5. 2015 GDP growth forecast

6. By 2050 over two-thirds of the world will
live in cities
Figures for 2014

7. Middle class?

8. Rapidly increasing middle class
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2009 2020 2030
Millionsofpeople
N.America EC C/S America Asia Pacific SSA MENA Total
]
Middle class ($10-100 per person daily)
Nearly 5 billion by 2030: two-thirds of the total

9. Fewer people below US$1.25/day
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2020 2030
Millions of people below US$1.25/day
East Asia Pacific E.Europe Central Asia L.America Carribean MENA S.Asia SSA

10. Per capita GDP and meat consumption,
2005

11. 0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
% growth in demand for livestock
products to 2030
2000 - 2030
11
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
0
50
100
150
200
250
E.AsiaPacific
China
SouthAsia
SSA
Highincome
FAO, 2011
Dark bars: Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030
Light bars: new estimates using IMPACT model, 2005 to 2030, courtesy Dolapo Enahoro, ILRI
Beef Pork
Poultry Milk

12. Increase in middle class means
increase in beef consumption
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA
% change in number of middle class, 2000 to 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
OECD C/S America Asia Pacific S.Asia SSA MENA
% change in consumption of beef, 2000 to 2030

13. Demand for beef in 2050
About 90 million tonnes beef needed to meet
demand in 2050
N.America
20%
SSA
23%Asia
46%
Other
11%

14. Demand for livestock commodities in developing
economies will be met – the question is how
Scenario #1
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Meeting livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3
Meeting livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

15. Replacing the 90% of locally produced
animal commodities is not feasible
Economically
Africa’s food import bill (2013): US $ 44
billion
About one fifth is livestock (highest after
cereals):
Meat: US $ 5 billion; Milk: US $ 4 billion
Business as usual: the import bill sky
rockets
Or for livelihoods
Almost 1 billion rely on livestock for
livelihoods and produce over 70% of the
livestock products today
43% of the agricultural workforce is female

16. The value of beef imports
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
USDmillions
USA CentralAm SEAsia SSAfr NAfr Asia

17. Sustainable beef production
Animal welfare as a component
Environmental dimensions
- Beef cattle produce over 2,500 million tonnes CO2 eq per
annum
- Which is 41% of all livestock sector emissions
- Emission intensity for beef is over 300kg C02 eq per kg of
protein
- But there are big opportunities to mitigate emissions,
especially where intensities are currently highest (S.Asia,
SSA, South America)

18. Sustainable beef consumption?
- Debates over what is
‘appropriate’
consumption….
- Current recommendations
70-90g per capita per day
- For many millions a small
amount of meat could
make a significant
contribution to a nutritious
diet
ILRI/Susan Macmillan

19. Sustainable animal food systems
are a must
• Productivity and efficiency:
– Sufficient food with lower
environmental foot print: Animal
health, genetics, feeding
• Animal source foods:
– Safe, not wasted and consumed in
appropriate quantities
• Emerging challenges:
– Zoonotic diseases
– Anti-Microbial Resistance

20. Beef feeding the middle class: feeding the
World?
• Understand drivers
of demand
• Ensure animal
welfare is
addressed
• Address
environmental
sustainability
• Consider the role
of beef in diets
• Ensure
opportunities for
positive impacts on
livelihoods are not
missed
ILRI/Stevie Mann

21. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
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