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Livestock and sustainable growth: present and future

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Presentation made in the workshop on Agroganaderia sostenible in IICA, Bogota, 23rd October 2013.

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Livestock and sustainable growth: present and future

  1. 1. Livestock at the Crossroads: new Directions for Policy, Research and Development Cooperation Livestock, climate change and resource use: present and future Andy Jarvis, Tim Searchinger, Caitlin Peterson, Phil Thornton, Mario Herrero, Michael Peters CCAFS Theme Leader
  2. 2. El Problema
  3. 3. Food security is at risk In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050.
  4. 4. Arable land per person will decrease The arable land on the earth is ~3% or 1.5 billion ha Year 1950 2000 2050 • World Population • 2,500,000,000 6,1000,000 9,000,000 • Arable land • 0.52 ha • 0.25 ha • 0.16 ha
  5. 5. 3 Livestock and GHG •30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture - 80% of all agricultural land •1/3 arable land used for feed crop production •70% of previously forested land in the Amazon = pasture Source: Erb et al. (2007)
  6. 6. Agriculture-related activities are ~ 24% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010) Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year Industrial Waste processes Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestoc k, energy) 4 2 11 13 70 Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. Gigatonne = 1 x 109 Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT). 2012. World Resources Institute. Non-Ag Energy
  7. 7. Figure 24. Global greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production Percent 100% = 6.5 Gt CO2e in 2010 Manure management Column1 7 Rice 10 35 Energy Ruminant enteric fermentation Ruminant Enteric Fermentation 17 20 Soil fertilization Sources: WRI analysis based on EPA 2012 and FAO 2012. with adjustments 12 Ruminant wastes on pastures
  8. 8. Figure 25. “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2 C world Gt CO2e per year Non-agricultural emissions 85 48 Agricultural and land-use change emissions 70 36 21 12 2010 2050 (Business as usual) >70% 15 Sources: WRI analysis based on IEA 2012, EIA 2012, EPA 2012, Houghton 2008, and OECD 2012. 2050 (2°C target)
  9. 9. 2 Livestock and GHG •10-18%3 of all global anthropogenic GHG -Other estimates as high as 51%4,5 •Range arises from methodological differences -Inventories vs. life cycle assessments -Attribution of land use to livestock -Omissions, misallocations kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein Range of GHG intensities for livestock commodities •Highest variation occurs for beef, due to variety of production systems. 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 •Ruminants require more fossil energy use, emit more CH4 per animal.6 Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs Source: de Vries and de Boer (2009)
  10. 10. Loss detections Jan 2004 Oct 2012 Results Latin America
  11. 11. Feeding Sub-Saharan Africa in 2050: Population growth from 856 million in 2010 to 1.96 billion (medium estimate UN) Region today consumes 9% of world calories but will consume 31% of projected calorie growth to 2050 Current 2050 - Current consumption and % of Imports 2050 - FAO projection & self-sufficient production (2830 kcal) Cropland needed at current yields for domestic food consumption (hectares) 154 million 357 million 488 million Cereal yield needed to avoid new land clearing 1.23 t/ha 4.33 t/ha 2.81 t/ha
  12. 12. Mensaje 1: Ganaderia esta en el ojo del hurrican en el tema de seguridad alimentario del mundo: emisiones, uso de la tierra, suministro de proteina
  13. 13. Entonces que se hace? Tres consideraciones • Los numeros no cuadran, entonces cual es la solucion? – Incrementar productividad – Disminuir perdidas en la cadena (y con consumidor) – Reducir consumo
  14. 14. The size of food loss and waste (2009) 24% of global food supply by energy content (kcal) 32% of global food supply by weight Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste – extent, causes and prevention. Rome: UN FAO.
  15. 15. Food lost or wasted (kcal per capita per day - 2009) Percent Consumption Distribution & market Processing 100% = 1520 kcal/capita/day Handling & storage Production 61 748 746 594 7 52 46 34 9 17 North America & Oceania 18 4 12 6 11 2 23 17 23 Europe Industrialized Asia North Africa, West & Central Asia 5 13 7 21 23 545 9 5 37 453 28 17 6 22 414 13 15 4 37 39 Number may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Source: WRI analysis based on Gustavsson et al. 2011. 28 Sub-Saharan Africa 32 Latin America South and Southeast Asia
  16. 16. Livestock products: Developing countries are hungry for more. •Growth in animal product consumption has increased more than any other commodity group.1 •Greatest increases in S and SE Asia, Latin America. -Overall meat consumption in China has quadrupled since 1980 to 119 lbs/person/yr. 2 Photo by: CGIAR •Economic and population growth, rising per capita incomes, urbanization
  17. 17. 2 Livestock consumption patterns •Between 1961 and 2005 milk consumption in developing countries doubled, meat consumption tripled, and egg consumption increased by a factor of five. 1
  18. 18. Changing consumption of meat in relation to gross national income (GNI) per capita (1961-2007) Source: FAOSTAT and World Bank in Foresight. 2011. “The Future of Food and Farming.” Government Office for Science, London.
  19. 19. 3 Livestock consumption patterns •As incomes grow, expenditure on livestock products increases rapidly .3 Past and projected consumption of livestock products -GDP growth in E Asia from 1991-2001 was 7% per year, compared to 2.3% in other developing countries and 1.8% in developed countries. •Consumption is leveling off in developed countries, but more than doubled since 1980 in developing countries (from 31 lbs. to 62 lbs. in 2002). -Rapid growth led by China, India, & Brazil projected to continue. Source: FAO (2006a) and FAO (2006b).
  20. 20. Table 3. FAO’s projected livestock consumption by region Livestock (kcal/person/day) Region Beef and mutton (kcal/person/day) 2006 2050 % change 2006 2050 % change Canada & USA 907 887 -2% 117 95 -19% European Union 864 925 7% 80 75 -6% Brazil 606 803 33% 151 173 15% Former Soviet Union 601 768 28% 118 156 32% China 561 820 46% 41 89 116% Other OECD 529 674 27% 64 84 31% Latin America (ex Brazil) 475 628 32% 96 116 21% Middle East & North Africa 303 416 37% 59 86 45% Asia (ex. China, India) 233 400 72% 24 43 79% India 184 357 94% 8 19 138% Sub-Saharan Africa 144 185 29% 41 51 26% World 413 506 23% 50 65 30% Source: WRI analysis of FAO 2012 data.
  21. 21. Figure 12. Efficiency rates of producing animal-based foods Percent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input” Calories Protein 25 20 18 16 15 15 15 10 7 4 1 7 11 12 13 8 3 1 N/A* Beef Sheep Shrimp Milk (cattle) Milk (buffalo) Pork Poultry Finfish Egg Mollusks *Mollusks independently produce calories and protein without any human-managed inputs. Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass. Sources for terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. 2010 (extra unpublished tables), Wirsenius 2000. Sources for finfish and shrimp: WRI author calculations based on USDA 2013, NRC 2011, Tacon and Metian 2008, Wirsenius 2000, and FAO 1989.
  22. 22. Figure 13. Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein Kg CO2e / kg protein 175 70 45 80 25 Beef Pork 45 45 40 30 20 Eggs Milk Poultry Note: Data mostly from developed world, and excludes emissions from land use change Source: DeVries (2009)
  23. 23. Which system is more sustainable?
  24. 24. Comparative Emissions from Dairy Cows Gerber et al., FAO (2010) Africa: 7.5 kg of greenhouse gases per kilogram of milk Accessible improvements – cut emissions per unit of milk by ½ to 2/3. High protein shrub Improved pasture Increased stover digestibility Source: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS U.S.: 1.3 kg of gases per kilogram of milk
  25. 25. Developing country productions systems that are eco-efficient B1 scenario shown though the pattern is similar for all SRES scenarios Smith P et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363:789-813 (2008) Source: ILRI
  26. 26. Government policies increasing agricultural land-area especially in perennials
  27. 27. …and increasing livestock production, but on less land
  28. 28. It’s all about the livestock…..either improve it’s efficiency, or get out of it! Carbon capture (CO2eq) for agricultural sector (fruits, livestock and rice) in Colombia
  29. 29. The hoofprint means there is plenty to do! •Ganaderia si es gran parte del problema, y tiende a empeorar • Solucion viene igual dentro del sector •Ganaderia sostenible tiene que ser holistico en su vision: •Zero deforestacion •Baja emisiones •Alta productivdad •Generacion de servicios ecosistemicos •Consumo responsible •Bajas perdidas post cosecha •Sabemos mucho, tenemos ejemplos espectaculares •Como logramos impactos escalados a nivel global/nacional •Politicas/tecnologias/programas/investigacion alineado
  30. 30. a.jarvis@cgiar.org
  31. 31. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 The state of food and agriculture: Livestock in the balance. Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, 2009, 9. FAOSTAT 2010, cited in: Skillful means: The challenges of China’s encounter with factory farming. New York: Brighter Green, 2011, 1. Steinfeld et al. (2006). Livestock’s long shadow: Environmental issues and options. Rome: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Goodland, R., and Anhang, J. 2009. Livestock and climate change: What if the key actors in climate change were pigs, chickens and cows? WorldWatch November/December 2009, p1019, WorldWatch Institute, Washington DC Herrero, M. et al. 2011. Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of getting the numbers right. Animal Feed Science and Technology 166-167: 779-782. de Vries, M., and de Boer, I.J.M., 2009. Comparing environmental impacts for livestock products: A review of life cycle assessments. Livestock Science 128(1): 1-11. Thornton, P. 2010. Livestock production: Recent trends, future prospects. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of Biology 365: 2853-2867. Working group II: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Africa, 10.2.2.4. Livestock. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001. Climate, livestock and poverty: Challenges at the interface. Nairobi: International Livestock Research Institute, 2009.
  32. 32. Ruminant Meat Consumes Majority of World’s Animal Feed But Provides 1/8 of Animal Product Calories Percent: 100% = 6705 million tons of dry matter per year (2010) Nonruminants Column1 Permanent pasture & browse Non-agricultural herbage & browse Ruminant meat Forage crops (hay & silage) Cereal grains Cropland pasture Ruminant dairy Soybean, starchy roots, & other edible crops Crop residues Food industry byproducts & food waste Note: Soybean and other oil meals are included in “Food industry by-products” while whole soybeans are included in “Soybeans, starchy roots and other edible crops”. Source: Wirsenius, S., et al. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agr. Syst. (2010).

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