Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
To help set up this session, here is what I will briefly present: [review agenda]Peter Hazlewood is helping lead a core team on this work. We have asked Ambassador Djalal to provide some initial remarks.This is early work for WRI. A new project. So our objective here is to solicit feedback on our initial thinking and strategy.[More specifically: What goals should ?Who do we need to influence?How do we create a persuasive narrative?
Historical patterns indicate that when a nation’s per capita incomes rise, its per capita meat consumption rises as well. This pattern is demonstrated by the experience of the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil, and China over approximately 45 years. The trends in China an Brazil are quite dramatic. This relationship between per capita income and meat consumption suggests that as other nations and regions move up the income ladder, they will likewise move up the food chain and eat more meat.It is important to note, however, that it is a generalization that only the wealthy eat more meat. For instance, the Indian experience indicates that cultural and/or religious traditions can be quite important and outweigh the meat consumption effects of rising incomes. Likewise, some pastoral communities that are cash poor have diets based on livestock (Foresight Report, p. 53).
Likewise, per kilogram of consumed food, meat products release significantly more greenhouse gases than plant-based foods.
Livestock and sustainable growth: present and future
Livestock at the Crossroads: new Directions for Policy, Research and Development Cooperation
Livestock, climate change and resource use:
present and future
Andy Jarvis, Tim Searchinger, Caitlin Peterson, Phil
Thornton, Mario Herrero, Michael Peters
CCAFS Theme Leader
Food security is at risk
In order to meet
demands, we will
Arable land per person will decrease
The arable land
on the earth is
~3% or 1.5
• World Population
• Arable land
• 0.52 ha
• 0.25 ha
• 0.16 ha
3 Livestock and GHG
•30-45% of earth’s terrestrial surface is pasture
- 80% of all agricultural land
•1/3 arable land used for feed crop production
•70% of previously forested land in the Amazon = pasture
Source: Erb et al. (2007)
Agriculture-related activities are ~ 24% of global
greenhouse gas emissions (2010)
Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year
Land-use change and
(e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestoc
Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. Gigatonne = 1 x 109
Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT). 2012. World Resources Institute.
Figure 24. Global greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production
100% = 6.5 Gt CO2e in 2010
Ruminant Enteric Fermentation
Sources: WRI analysis based on EPA 2012 and FAO 2012. with adjustments
Figure 25. “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would
comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2 C world
Gt CO2e per year
Agricultural and land-use
(Business as usual)
Sources: WRI analysis based on IEA 2012, EIA 2012, EPA 2012, Houghton 2008, and OECD 2012.
2 Livestock and GHG
•10-18%3 of all global anthropogenic GHG
-Other estimates as high as 51%4,5
•Range arises from methodological differences
-Inventories vs. life cycle assessments
-Attribution of land use to livestock
kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein
Range of GHG intensities for livestock commodities
•Highest variation occurs for
beef, due to variety of
•Ruminants require more
fossil energy use, emit more
CH4 per animal.6
Source: de Vries and de Boer (2009)
Feeding Sub-Saharan Africa in 2050:
Population growth from 856 million in 2010 to
1.96 billion (medium estimate UN)
Region today consumes 9% of world calories but will consume
31% of projected calorie growth to 2050
2050 - Current
% of Imports
2050 - FAO projection
production (2830 kcal)
Cropland needed at
current yields for domestic
154 million 357 million
Cereal yield needed to
avoid new land clearing
Ganaderia esta en el ojo del hurrican en
el tema de seguridad alimentario del
mundo: emisiones, uso de la tierra,
suministro de proteina
Entonces que se hace? Tres
• Los numeros no cuadran, entonces cual es la
– Incrementar productividad
– Disminuir perdidas en la cadena (y con
– Reducir consumo
The size of food loss and waste (2009)
24% of global food supply by energy content (kcal)
of global food supply by weight
Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste – extent, causes
and prevention. Rome: UN FAO.
Food lost or wasted (kcal per capita per day - 2009)
Distribution & market
100% = 1520 kcal/capita/day
Handling & storage
North America &
North Africa, West &
Number may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Source: WRI analysis based on Gustavsson et al. 2011.
South and Southeast
Livestock products: Developing countries are
hungry for more.
•Growth in animal product
consumption has increased
more than any other
•Greatest increases in S and
SE Asia, Latin America.
consumption in China
has quadrupled since
1980 to 119
Photo by: CGIAR
•Economic and population
growth, rising per capita
2 Livestock consumption patterns
•Between 1961 and 2005 milk consumption in developing countries
doubled, meat consumption tripled, and egg consumption increased by
a factor of five. 1
Changing consumption of meat in relation to gross national income (GNI)
per capita (1961-2007)
Source: FAOSTAT and World Bank in Foresight. 2011. “The Future of Food and Farming.”
Government Office for Science, London.
3 Livestock consumption patterns
•As incomes grow, expenditure
on livestock products increases
Past and projected consumption of livestock products
-GDP growth in E Asia
from 1991-2001 was 7%
per year, compared to
2.3% in other developing
countries and 1.8% in
•Consumption is leveling off in
developed countries, but more
than doubled since 1980 in
developing countries (from 31
lbs. to 62 lbs. in 2002).
-Rapid growth led by
China, India, & Brazil
projected to continue.
Source: FAO (2006a) and FAO (2006b).
Table 3. FAO’s projected livestock consumption by region
Beef and mutton
Canada & USA
Former Soviet Union
Latin America (ex Brazil)
Middle East & North Africa
Asia (ex. China, India)
Source: WRI analysis of FAO 2012 data.
Figure 12. Efficiency rates of producing animal-based foods
Percent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”
*Mollusks independently produce calories and protein without any human-managed inputs. Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein
content of bone-free carcass. Sources for terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. 2010 (extra unpublished tables), Wirsenius 2000.
Sources for finfish and shrimp: WRI author calculations based on USDA 2013, NRC 2011,
Tacon and Metian 2008, Wirsenius 2000, and FAO 1989.
Figure 13. Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein
Kg CO2e / kg protein
Note: Data mostly from developed world, and excludes emissions from land use change
Source: DeVries (2009)
Comparative Emissions from Dairy Cows
Gerber et al., FAO (2010)
Africa: 7.5 kg of greenhouse gases
per kilogram of milk
Accessible improvements – cut emissions
per unit of milk by ½ to 2/3.
High protein shrub
Increased stover digestibility
Source: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS
U.S.: 1.3 kg of gases per kilogram
Developing country productions systems that are
B1 scenario shown though the pattern is similar for all SRES scenarios
Smith P et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363:789-813 (2008)
Government policies increasing agricultural
land-area especially in perennials
…and increasing livestock production, but
on less land
It’s all about the livestock…..either improve it’s
efficiency, or get out of it!
Carbon capture (CO2eq) for agricultural sector
(fruits, livestock and rice) in Colombia
The hoofprint means there is plenty to do!
•Ganaderia si es gran parte del problema, y tiende a empeorar
• Solucion viene igual dentro del sector
•Ganaderia sostenible tiene que ser holistico en su vision:
•Generacion de servicios ecosistemicos
•Bajas perdidas post cosecha
•Sabemos mucho, tenemos ejemplos espectaculares
•Como logramos impactos escalados a nivel global/nacional
The state of food and agriculture: Livestock in the balance. Rome: United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization, 2009, 9.
FAOSTAT 2010, cited in: Skillful means: The challenges of China’s encounter with factory farming.
New York: Brighter Green, 2011, 1.
Steinfeld et al. (2006). Livestock’s long shadow: Environmental issues and options. Rome: United
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
Goodland, R., and Anhang, J. 2009. Livestock and climate change: What if the key actors in climate
change were pigs, chickens and cows? WorldWatch November/December 2009, p1019, WorldWatch Institute, Washington DC
Herrero, M. et al. 2011. Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: The importance of getting the
numbers right. Animal Feed Science and Technology 166-167: 779-782.
de Vries, M., and de Boer, I.J.M., 2009. Comparing environmental impacts for livestock products: A
review of life cycle assessments. Livestock Science 128(1): 1-11.
Thornton, P. 2010. Livestock production: Recent trends, future prospects. Philosophical Transactions
of the Royal Society of Biology 365: 2853-2867.
Working group II: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Africa, 10.2.2.4. Livestock. Geneva:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.
Climate, livestock and poverty: Challenges at the interface. Nairobi: International Livestock Research
Ruminant Meat Consumes Majority of World’s Animal Feed But
Provides 1/8 of Animal Product Calories
Percent: 100% = 6705 million tons of dry matter per year (2010)
herbage & browse
(hay & silage)
roots, & other edible
Food industry byproducts & food waste
Note: Soybean and other oil meals are included in “Food industry by-products” while whole soybeans are included in “Soybeans, starchy roots and
other edible crops”.
Source: Wirsenius, S., et al. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios
of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agr. Syst. (2010).