This document discusses index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) as a tool to help pastoralists in sub-Saharan Africa manage risks from drought. It notes that over 50 million pastoralists depend on livestock for their livelihoods but face major losses from drought. IBLI uses satellite data on vegetation levels rather than individual livestock losses to trigger payouts when forage is low. The document outlines the development and testing of IBLI contracts in Kenya and Ethiopia, challenges in scaling up adoption, and factors influencing uptake like price, contract design, and household characteristics.
Raising the visibility of livestock in African Policy DialogueILRI
Presented by Joseph Karugia, Coordinator, ReSAKSS-ECA at the Expert Writeshop to Finalize the Issues Paper: Raising The Visibility of Livestock in the CAADP Biennial Review Report, 9 December 2020
ILRI is a member of the CGIAR consortium that works to improve food security and reduce poverty through research on the efficient, safe, and sustainable use of livestock. ILRI has over 700 staff members working across its main campuses in Nairobi, Kenya and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as well as 16 other country offices. The organization's research focuses on developing science-based practices to achieve better lives through livestock while addressing challenges related to food production, economic development, health, and environmental sustainability.
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Raising the visibility of livestock in African Policy DialogueILRI
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ILRI is a member of the CGIAR consortium that works to improve food security and reduce poverty through research on the efficient, safe, and sustainable use of livestock. ILRI has over 700 staff members working across its main campuses in Nairobi, Kenya and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia as well as 16 other country offices. The organization's research focuses on developing science-based practices to achieve better lives through livestock while addressing challenges related to food production, economic development, health, and environmental sustainability.
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This document summarizes a presentation on trends and projections for Ethiopia's livestock sector between 2010 and 2050. It finds that while growing demand for livestock products creates opportunities for producers, climate change and other challenges threaten supply. Quantitative models project that under a "business as usual" scenario, meat and milk supply will exceed demand by 2030 but climate impacts introduce uncertainty. Timely actions are needed to improve productivity, develop markets, and manage resources to ensure the sector's resilience and growth.
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Jimmy Smith, Director General of ILRI, outlines the importance of livestock to developing economies and proposes ways to double livestock production through better feeds. Livestock represents five of the six most valuable global commodities and production is increasing faster in developing countries. Livestock plays a key role in livelihoods, nutrition, health and ecosystems. The CGIAR could harness new science on feeds, genetics, and management to boost productivity and sustainability, improving food security and reducing poverty and emissions.
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This document discusses opportunities for public-private investment in animal health in developing countries. It finds that demand for livestock products is growing significantly in developing countries, where smallholder producers will continue to supply the majority of production. Animal health constraints remain a major problem, but as smallholder systems commercialize, their need and demand for animal health inputs will increase. There are opportunities for synergistic public-private investments in animal health that can benefit both smallholder producers and the private sector.
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Presented by Jimmy Smith, Dieter Schillinger, Delia Grace, Tim Robinson and Shirley Tarawali at the IFAH Europe Sustainability Conference, Brussels, 11 June 2015
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The document summarizes a training, certification, and branding scheme piloted in Kenya to professionalize informal food markets and improve food safety. The scheme provided hygiene training and certification to informal milk traders, giving them branded containers and uniforms. Over 15% of traders registered by 2009, changing hygienic practices. The scheme had economic and policy impacts, though follow-up is still needed. A theory of change explains how such interventions could improve diets and food safety through safer animal products sold by certified informal traders.
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Presentation by Timothy Robinson, Delia Grace and Eric Fèvre during the visit of the UK Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Mark Walport to ILRI Nairobi, 15 July 2015.
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Presented by Raphael Mrode (ILRI), Joram Mwacharo (ICARDA) and Olivier Hanotte (ILRI) at the Workshop on Implementing Genomic Selection in CGIAR Breeding Programs, Montpellier, 10-12 December 2015
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The document summarizes the changing landscape of livestock production in developing countries. It notes that demand for animal source foods is rapidly increasing in developing countries. Smallholder farms currently dominate livestock production in many developing nation contexts. There are opportunities for agricultural research, including animal genetics, to help enable a sustainable transition and meet rising demand through improving smallholder systems rather than large-scale industrialization. Achieving food security while addressing environmental and health challenges will require productivity gains from improved animal health, genetics, and feeding practices.
Sustainable animal production systems in AfricaILRI
Presented by Timothy Robinson, Catherine Pfeifer, Mario Herrero, Thomas van Boeckel and Marius Gilbert at the 61st International Congress of Meat Science & Technology, France, 23–28 August 2015
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Presented by Timothy Robinson, William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppina Cinardi, Thomas Van Boeckel, Michael Macleod, Bernard Bett, Delia Grace and Marius Gilbert at the annual conference of the British Society of Animal Science (BSAS), Chester, UK, 14-15 April 2015.
Presentation by Bernard Bett at the 14th conference of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, 3-7 November 2015.
Livestock: Opportunities for addressing global development challengesILRI
Livestock play an important role in addressing global development challenges through inclusive economic growth, equitable livelihoods, improved nutrition and health, and sustainable ecosystems. Livestock contribute significantly to GDP and provide livelihoods for many smallholder farmers and landless people. However, meeting increased demand for livestock products in a sustainable way will require transforming smallholder systems through improved productivity and market access while supporting rural development and livelihoods.
Food safety and informal markets: Animal products in sub-Saharan AfricaILRI
This document summarizes a presentation about food safety and informal markets for animal products in sub-Saharan Africa. It notes that a large number of deaths per year are associated with agriculture, many occurring in developing countries, and that zoonoses and foodborne diseases cost $84 billion annually. It then discusses how informal markets play a major role in food security and safety in sub-Saharan Africa, handling most animal source foods, but that food safety management there focuses more on hazards than actual risks. It stresses that efforts to improve food safety in these markets must be pro-poor, risk-based, involve all actors, and consider gender, cultural and economic factors.
The livestock landscape and ILRI in Southern AfricaILRI
This document outlines ILRI's work in livestock research and development in Southern Africa. It provides context on the region, including the importance of livestock production and issues like climate change impacts. Key research priority areas identified include rangeland management, transboundary animal diseases, and challenges in red meat and dairy value chains. The document discusses other organizations involved in livestock R&D and ILRI's areas of expertise. It summarizes some of ILRI's current initiatives in countries like Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Zambia focused on issues like value chain development, crop-livestock integration, and commodity-based trading.
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The document discusses the livestock revolution driven by increasing global demand for animal-source foods. It notes the revolution has benefited poor farmers through higher incomes and improved nutrition but also brought risks like food safety issues and disease emergence. While the revolution increased production and closed some demand-supply gaps, continued population and income growth means more food will be needed in the future. The document examines both positive and negative impacts on human health from the livestock revolution.
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This document discusses the concepts of resilience in relation to sustainable development and food security in the drylands of Eastern Africa. It defines social-ecological resilience as a system's ability to absorb disturbance while retaining its core functions, and development resilience as a household's ability to maintain well-being during shocks and stresses. While the disaster risk reduction community focuses on short-term well-being and the development community on long-term improvements, both aim to enhance resilience. However, system resilience is not always desirable, as traditional pastoralism demonstrates. Differentiating system and development resilience can provide insights into when system resilience promotes or hinders well-being.
- Fast-rising demand for milk, meat, and eggs in Africa is driving changes in the continent's livestock sector. This growing demand will need to be met through increased production.
- There are three potential scenarios for meeting this demand: importing livestock products, importing industrial livestock production methods, or transforming smallholder livestock systems.
- Enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions are needed to ensure Africa's livestock systems transition supports broad growth and environmental/human health.
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Smallholder farmers in India produce much of the country's livestock and dairy, contributing significantly to agricultural GDP and livelihoods. Rising global and domestic demand for livestock products presents opportunities but also risks. If met through imports or industrialization, it could harm the Indian economy, environment, and many livelihoods. However, transforming smallholder livestock systems sustainably could help millions improve production and livelihoods, maintaining India's economic growth. The conference aimed to discuss actions supporting smallholders to meet future demand for animal-source foods in an equitable and sustainable manner.
1. Gender-responsive research in the CGIAR aims to integrate gender into research priority setting, implementation, and evaluation to foster positive changes in female empowerment.
2. A key challenge is precisely targeting segmented user groups, like different types of male and female farmers, based on their social characteristics and varietal trait preferences.
3. Methods like conjoint analysis can be used to develop a social typology of user groups and identify gender-differentiated preferences for traits in order to prioritize the delivery of new varieties to intended users.
4. Standardizing gender analysis methods across projects would allow identification of priority cross-cutting traits and local traits to target breeding efforts based on the needs of specific gendered user types
Index Based Livestock Insurance Toward Sustainable Livestock Insurance for Pa...essp2
Index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) aims to provide sustainable insurance for pastoralists. While initial IBLI contracts demonstrated benefits, they had significant "basis risk" due to incomplete coverage. Overcoming barriers to scaling up IBLI requires addressing: 1) index design and data issues to minimize basis risk; 2) building effective demand through education given clients' lack of insurance experience; 3) developing low-cost delivery mechanisms using technology; and 4) establishing an enabling policy and institutional infrastructure with defined public and private sector roles. Progress has been made in contract and index design, demand creation, and delivery mechanisms to move IBLI programs towards greater scale and sustainability.
At the Workshop on Innovations in Index Insurance to Promote Agricultural and Livestock Development, December 3rd, 2015 in Addis Ababa Ethiopia, Andrew Mude of the International Livestock Research Institute presented on the challenges and promises of implementing index-based livestock insurance
The Favorable Impact of Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI): Results among...essp2
1) Index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) was piloted among pastoralists in Ethiopia and Kenya to provide a timely payout after drought events in order to help herders recover losses. 2) Uptake of IBLI was significant initially but repurchase rates declined, though IBLI was still found to improve household welfare by reducing distress livestock sales, increasing veterinary expenditures and milk productivity. 3) While IBLI does not eliminate all risk, it was shown to improve household subjective well-being and resilience to drought compared to going without any insurance.
At the Workshop on Innovations in Index Insurance to Promote Agricultural and Livestock Development, December 3rd, 2015 in Addis Ababa Ethiopia, Chris Barret of Cornell University presented on the favorable impacts of implementing index-based livestock insurance.
Andrew G. Mude (ILRI). Building Climate Resilient Livelihoods through Index-Insurance in Northern Kenya. Presented at CCAFS Science Meeting, 1-2 December 2010
Index-insurance to protect pastoralists from drought shocksILRI
Presented by Francesco Fava, ILRI, at the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Agro-Livestock Workshop–Climate Risks and Innovation in Conflict affected areas Linked to Agro/Livestock Production, Nairobi, 4 December 2019
Incubating a promising financial solution for the drylands: Toward sustainabl...ILRI
Presented by Andrew Mude at the Borlaug 2016 Dialogue side event on Climate Proofing One Third of the World: Tools for Resilient Drylands, Des Moines, 12 October 2016
Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI): Preliminary findings on the positive ...ILRI
This document summarizes research on Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) in East Africa. The key points are:
1) IBLI aims to provide drought insurance for pastoralists using satellite data to track vegetation levels, since individual livestock losses are too costly to insure. While imperfect, it can help mitigate poverty from drought.
2) Uptake of IBLI in pilot programs was significant, though many did not renew. Price, design risks, and understanding affected purchase rates.
3) Research found IBLI reduced distress coping strategies after drought, increased investments and income, and improved subjective well-being, showing its benefits despite basis risk.
Presentation by A Shee, International Livestock Research Institute, at the CCAFS Workshop on Institutions and Policies to Scale out Climate Smart Agriculture held between 2-5 December 2013, in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
The document summarizes a field experiment conducted in Ethiopia to test the impact of providing index-based rainfall insurance to informal risk-sharing groups. The experiment randomized the type of training provided to group leaders on the insurance product, with some receiving individual-focused training and others receiving group-focused training emphasizing risk-sharing. Preliminary results found higher insurance take-up rates among members of groups whose leaders received the group risk-sharing training compared to individual training, suggesting such group-level products have potential to increase demand for index insurance.
Selling weather index insurance to farmers in ethiopia lessons learnedessp2
Weather risk remains a major challenge for farmers in Ethiopia. Drought can significantly impact households' consumption levels and welfare. Index-based weather insurance offers possibilities to help farmers manage risk, but basis risk and lack of trust have limited demand. A study in Ethiopia tested selling insurance through informal risk-sharing groups called iddirs. Key lessons included the need to minimize basis risk, subsidize prices, build trust over time, and sell early in the growing season. Selling through groups helped increase sales by addressing some idiosyncratic basis risk. With smart subsidies and continued product improvements to reduce basis risk, index insurance could help vulnerable households if combined with other risk management strategies.
Creating resilience through Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI): Insights ...ILRI
The document summarizes the Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) program in Ethiopia. Key points:
- IBLI was launched in 2012 in collaboration with various organizations to provide drought insurance to pastoralists in Borana zone.
- Over 9,000 insurance policies have been sold since 2014 through microfinance institutions. In 2017, over 2,250 pastoralists received a payout of 5.4 million Birr after a drought.
- The program aims to scale up to other regions of Ethiopia using satellite data to calculate payouts when forage conditions decline below a set threshold.
1) The study examines the impact of index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) payments on asset recovery after a severe winter disaster in Mongolia in 2009/10.
2) Using a matching method, the study finds that households that received IBLI payments recovered faster, with significantly larger herd sizes in the 1-2 years after the disaster compared to uninsured households.
3) The payments helped insured households smooth consumption and relieved credit constraints, allowing them to avoid selling livestock and use the funds for basic needs rather than rebuilding herds.
Insuring against the weather using traditional groupsessp2
This document summarizes a study on using traditional risk-sharing groups in Ethiopia to promote index-based weather insurance. The study found that weather risk is a major challenge for farmers and that insurance could help but demand is low due to basis risk. The study conducted a randomized experiment providing insurance to individual households and groups both with and without mandated sharing rules. It found that insurance uptake increased more for groups, especially those with mandated rules. Groups also saw improved access to loans/grants. The study provides evidence that integrating formal insurance with strengthened informal groups can increase welfare by addressing correlated and individual risks. It implies traditional groups have potential for scaling insurance if rules are institutionalized.
The role of mobile technologies in promoting sustainable delivery of livestoc...ILRI
This document discusses how mobile technologies can help promote sustainable delivery of livestock insurance programs in East Africa. It summarizes that index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) was first piloted in 2010 to help pastoralists manage drought risk, but faced challenges of design, demand, delivery, and policy support. Mobile phones can help address some challenges by facilitating insurance sales and payments, providing training for agents, and crowdsourcing data on rangeland conditions and livestock markets to improve programs over time. The document provides examples of how IBLI has leveraged mobile technologies for training, sales transactions, and indemnity payments to enhance insurance delivery and impact for pastoralists in the drylands.
Sustainable livelihoods through livestock farming in East AfricaILRI
1. Livestock farming is important for sustainable livelihoods in East Africa, providing livelihoods for 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
2. Interventions to enhance livestock productivity, market access, and reduce risk can help the poor benefit from growing demand for livestock products.
3. Achieving this requires an integrated approach combining technologies, institutional innovations, and enabling policies along value chains.
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The Food Safety Working Group (FSWG) in Vietnam was created in 2015 at the request of the Deputy Prime Minister to address food safety issues in the country. It brings together government agencies, ministries, and development partners to facilitate joint policy dialogue and improve food safety. Over eight years of operations led by different organizations, the FSWG has contributed to various initiatives. However, it faces challenges of diminished government participation over time and dependence on active members. Going forward, it will strengthen its operations by integrating under Vietnam's One Health Partnership framework to better engage stakeholders and achieve policy impacts.
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Presentation by Lordrick Alinaitwe, Martin Wainaina, Salome Dürr, Clovice Kankya, Velma Kivali, James Bugeza, Martin Richter, Kristina Roesel, Annie Cook and Anne Mayer-Scholl at the University of Bern Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences Symposium, Bern, Switzerland, 29 June 2023.
Assessing meat microbiological safety and associated handling practices in bu...ILRI
Presentation by Patricia Koech, Winnie Ogutu, Linnet Ochieng, Delia Grace, George Gitao, Lily Bebora, Max Korir, Florence Mutua and Arshnee Moodley at the 8th All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture, Gaborone, Botswana, 26–29 September 2023.
Ecological factors associated with abundance and distribution of mosquito vec...ILRI
Poster by Max Korir, Joel Lutomiah and Bernard Bett presented the 8th All Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture, Gaborone, Botswana, 26–29 September 2023.
Practices and drivers of antibiotic use in Kenyan smallholder dairy farmsILRI
Poster by Lydiah Kisoo, Dishon M. Muloi, Walter Oguta, Daisy Ronoh, Lynn Kirwa, James Akoko, Eric Fèvre, Arshnee Moodley and Lillian Wambua presented at Tropentag 2023, Berlin, Germany, 20–22 September 2023.
Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intellige...University of Maribor
Slides from talk:
Aleš Zamuda: Remote Sensing and Computational, Evolutionary, Supercomputing, and Intelligent Systems.
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Inter-Society Networking Panel GRSS/MTT-S/CIS Panel Session: Promoting Connection and Cooperation
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
Unlocking the mysteries of reproduction: Exploring fecundity and gonadosomati...AbdullaAlAsif1
The pygmy halfbeak Dermogenys colletei, is known for its viviparous nature, this presents an intriguing case of relatively low fecundity, raising questions about potential compensatory reproductive strategies employed by this species. Our study delves into the examination of fecundity and the Gonadosomatic Index (GSI) in the Pygmy Halfbeak, D. colletei (Meisner, 2001), an intriguing viviparous fish indigenous to Sarawak, Borneo. We hypothesize that the Pygmy halfbeak, D. colletei, may exhibit unique reproductive adaptations to offset its low fecundity, thus enhancing its survival and fitness. To address this, we conducted a comprehensive study utilizing 28 mature female specimens of D. colletei, carefully measuring fecundity and GSI to shed light on the reproductive adaptations of this species. Our findings reveal that D. colletei indeed exhibits low fecundity, with a mean of 16.76 ± 2.01, and a mean GSI of 12.83 ± 1.27, providing crucial insights into the reproductive mechanisms at play in this species. These results underscore the existence of unique reproductive strategies in D. colletei, enabling its adaptation and persistence in Borneo's diverse aquatic ecosystems, and call for further ecological research to elucidate these mechanisms. This study lends to a better understanding of viviparous fish in Borneo and contributes to the broader field of aquatic ecology, enhancing our knowledge of species adaptations to unique ecological challenges.
EWOCS-I: The catalog of X-ray sources in Westerlund 1 from the Extended Weste...Sérgio Sacani
Context. With a mass exceeding several 104 M⊙ and a rich and dense population of massive stars, supermassive young star clusters
represent the most massive star-forming environment that is dominated by the feedback from massive stars and gravitational interactions
among stars.
Aims. In this paper we present the Extended Westerlund 1 and 2 Open Clusters Survey (EWOCS) project, which aims to investigate
the influence of the starburst environment on the formation of stars and planets, and on the evolution of both low and high mass stars.
The primary targets of this project are Westerlund 1 and 2, the closest supermassive star clusters to the Sun.
Methods. The project is based primarily on recent observations conducted with the Chandra and JWST observatories. Specifically,
the Chandra survey of Westerlund 1 consists of 36 new ACIS-I observations, nearly co-pointed, for a total exposure time of 1 Msec.
Additionally, we included 8 archival Chandra/ACIS-S observations. This paper presents the resulting catalog of X-ray sources within
and around Westerlund 1. Sources were detected by combining various existing methods, and photon extraction and source validation
were carried out using the ACIS-Extract software.
Results. The EWOCS X-ray catalog comprises 5963 validated sources out of the 9420 initially provided to ACIS-Extract, reaching a
photon flux threshold of approximately 2 × 10−8 photons cm−2
s
−1
. The X-ray sources exhibit a highly concentrated spatial distribution,
with 1075 sources located within the central 1 arcmin. We have successfully detected X-ray emissions from 126 out of the 166 known
massive stars of the cluster, and we have collected over 71 000 photons from the magnetar CXO J164710.20-455217.
ESR spectroscopy in liquid food and beverages.pptxPRIYANKA PATEL
With increasing population, people need to rely on packaged food stuffs. Packaging of food materials requires the preservation of food. There are various methods for the treatment of food to preserve them and irradiation treatment of food is one of them. It is the most common and the most harmless method for the food preservation as it does not alter the necessary micronutrients of food materials. Although irradiated food doesn’t cause any harm to the human health but still the quality assessment of food is required to provide consumers with necessary information about the food. ESR spectroscopy is the most sophisticated way to investigate the quality of the food and the free radicals induced during the processing of the food. ESR spin trapping technique is useful for the detection of highly unstable radicals in the food. The antioxidant capability of liquid food and beverages in mainly performed by spin trapping technique.
Authoring a personal GPT for your research and practice: How we created the Q...Leonel Morgado
Thematic analysis in qualitative research is a time-consuming and systematic task, typically done using teams. Team members must ground their activities on common understandings of the major concepts underlying the thematic analysis, and define criteria for its development. However, conceptual misunderstandings, equivocations, and lack of adherence to criteria are challenges to the quality and speed of this process. Given the distributed and uncertain nature of this process, we wondered if the tasks in thematic analysis could be supported by readily available artificial intelligence chatbots. Our early efforts point to potential benefits: not just saving time in the coding process but better adherence to criteria and grounding, by increasing triangulation between humans and artificial intelligence. This tutorial will provide a description and demonstration of the process we followed, as two academic researchers, to develop a custom ChatGPT to assist with qualitative coding in the thematic data analysis process of immersive learning accounts in a survey of the academic literature: QUAL-E Immersive Learning Thematic Analysis Helper. In the hands-on time, participants will try out QUAL-E and develop their ideas for their own qualitative coding ChatGPT. Participants that have the paid ChatGPT Plus subscription can create a draft of their assistants. The organizers will provide course materials and slide deck that participants will be able to utilize to continue development of their custom GPT. The paid subscription to ChatGPT Plus is not required to participate in this workshop, just for trying out personal GPTs during it.
The cost of acquiring information by natural selectionCarl Bergstrom
This is a short talk that I gave at the Banff International Research Station workshop on Modeling and Theory in Population Biology. The idea is to try to understand how the burden of natural selection relates to the amount of information that selection puts into the genome.
It's based on the first part of this research paper:
The cost of information acquisition by natural selection
Ryan Seamus McGee, Olivia Kosterlitz, Artem Kaznatcheev, Benjamin Kerr, Carl T. Bergstrom
bioRxiv 2022.07.02.498577; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.02.498577
PPT on Direct Seeded Rice presented at the three-day 'Training and Validation Workshop on Modules of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Technologies in South Asia' workshop on April 22, 2024.
hematic appreciation test is a psychological assessment tool used to measure an individual's appreciation and understanding of specific themes or topics. This test helps to evaluate an individual's ability to connect different ideas and concepts within a given theme, as well as their overall comprehension and interpretation skills. The results of the test can provide valuable insights into an individual's cognitive abilities, creativity, and critical thinking skills
Sustainable livestock insurance for pastoralists: From research to practice and impact
1. Index Based Livestock Insurance
Toward Sustainable Livestock Insurance for Pastoralists
From Research to Practice and Impact
IBLI ADRAS Policy Workshop,
ILRI Nairobi, 9 June 2015
2. A SIZEABLE CONSTITUENT
• Over 50 million pastoralists in Sub-Saharan Africa: over 20 million in the Horn of Africa
• In the Horn of Africa: Exports of livestock and livestock products exceed $1billion
annually, 90% of which from pastoral flock.
• In the region, estimated contribution to the livestock economy at 40%
Motivation: Why IBLI?
THE CENTRALITY OF LIVESTOCK
• In northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia:
- Median pastoralist household holds 100% of their productive assets in livestock
- Livestock products and sales of livestock are 40% of income for average household
- 15% of income in the form of food aid, cash aid or gifts
3. STANDARD RESPONSES TO DROUGHT ARE COSTLY & INSUFFICIENT
• Destocking/Restocking – slow, expensive, targeting challenges, inefficiency
• Food aid – slow, expensive, targeting challenges, foster dependency
• Cash aid – targeting challenges, fiscal sustainability, not equally effective for all.
• HSNP Plus – Need to supplement to provision of well targeted cash transfers to the
poor, with productive safety needs in the from of livestock insurance to minimize slide
into poverty resulting for drought shocks. Particularly in pastoral systems where
poverty trap dynamics enhance this problem.
Motivation: Why IBLI?
VULNERABILITY TO LIVESTOCK LOSSES
• 75% of livestock losses, among pastoralists, due to drought
• Strong evidence of the asset-based poverty traps putting a premium of productive
safety nets
• Catastrophic herd loss due to drought identified as the major source of vulnerability
and cause of poverty
• Between 2008 and 2011 Kenyan economy suffered US$ 12.1 billion in damages due to
drought, over 70% due to livestock losses.
4. Livestock Insurance as a complement
Sustainable insurance can:
•Prevent downward slide of vulnerable populations
•Allows focus humanitarian resources on the needy
•Crowd-in investment and accumulation by the poor
But can insurance be sustainably offered in the ASAL?
Conventional insurance unlikely to work in pastoral
context:
•Very high transactions costs, esp. w/little financial
intermediation among pastoralists
•Moral hazard/adverse selection
INDEX-BASED LIVESTOCK INSURANCE
•Insurance and independent “index” measure
strongly correlated with individual loss
•Better suited to the pastoral production system and
risk profile
5. COMPONENTS OF A SUSTAINABLE INDEX-INSURANCE PROGRAM
1. Contract design: Data demands (long term series, reliable, non-
manipulable). Contract precision (minimizing “basis risk”, maximizing
value)
2. Evidence of value and impact: Household level: Welfare improvements,
behavioral change. National level: Operational and fiscal efficiency
3. Establish informed effective demand, especially among a clientele with
little experience with any insurance. Extension, capacity development,
marketing.
4. Low cost delivery mechanisms (supply chain), to build critical mass of
clients/recipients. Sales transactions platforms, information and
extension, indemnity payments
5. Policy and institutional development. Regulations, oversight, effective
public provision etc.
6. First Contract: Marsabit – January 2010 – January 2013
• Response Function: Regress historic livestock mortality data onto
transformations of Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) –
satellite-based proxy of forage availability
• IBLI Contract is for Asset Replacement: Pays out when forage scarcity is
predicted to cause livestock deaths in an area.
IBLI Contract Design
Product performance
• Quality of prediction is highest for
more catastrophic drought events
• 85-88% accuracy for average herd
losses of at least 20%,
• Even with this subsequent study
calls contract precision into
question, “basis risk”
DATA
Response
Function Index
Chantarat, Mude, Barrett and Carter (2013, JRI)
7. Upgrading IBLI Model for Scale Out
• ALRMP Livestock Mortality Data – increasing gaps beyond Marsabit
• Employ spatial methods to estimate district/division-specific index
response functions
• Missing mortality observations will be filled in using spatial indexing scheme
• Spatial lag model of estimate optimal response function
IBLI Contract Design
• Rolled Out in August 2013
• APA Insurance – Isiolo
• Takaful Insurance of Africa – Wajir
• Deficiencies in precision –
overestimated losses in March 2014
Woodard, Shee, Mude (2014, JRI under review)
8. NDVI-based Forage Scarcity contracts
• Complexity of design, data scarcity, and precision concern resulted in a
move to NDVI-only contracts.
• Area-average seasonal availability of forage (NDVI) compared to historical seasons.
• First employed in Borena, S. Ethiopia from July 2012 by Oromia Insurance
Company (no livestock mortality data)
• Easier to explain, seemingly more precise, very easy to scale up
• Planned to transition in Kenya
• Fast-track due to demands of the Kenya Livestock Insurance Program
(KLIP) and collaboration with World Bank
• New Kenya Contract: Asset Protection – intervention prior to mortality
• Payout at the beginning of the dry season rather than the end
• Insured unit: cost to keep livestock alive during drought
• APA Insurance (Marsabit and Isiolo), Takaful Insurance of Africa (Wajir, Isiolo,
Mandera, Garissa) launched asset protection contracts in January 2015
• Greater attention to the science of remote sensing
IBLI Contract Design
Vrieling, Meroni, Shee, Mude, Woodard, and de Bie Rambold (2014, IJAEOG)
Vrieling, Meroni, Mude, Chantarat, Ummenhofer and de Bie Kees(2015)
9. Sounds like a good idea: Is it something pastoralists will really want, value or pay for?
Taking IBLI to the Ground
Introduction to IBLI Using Experimental Games
• Innovative way to introduce novel and
complex concept to unfamiliar population
• Designed experimental game structured on
the pastoral production system
• Pastoralists were eager and game increased
understanding and confirmed to researchers
that it would be possible to explain
Investigating Demand and Willingness to Pay
• Survey, prior to and just after game to study
willingness to pay
• Preliminary results showed strong
willingness
• Slightly more that 30% were willing to pay at
least the fair price of IBLI; wealthier hhs
willing to pay more.
McPeak, Chantarat, and Mude (2010, AFR)
Chantarat, Mude, and Barrett (2009)
10. Pastoralists seem keen and willing: How to provision?
Taking IBLI to the Ground
IBLI Institutions Feasibility Study
• How might IBLI complement or compete
with existing risk-management practices?
• Is the current institutional and policy
environment favourable to an IBLI-type
product/program.
• Efforts to understand the various
network of stakeholders and institutions
that would be relevant and willing
Rallying the troops
• Building a coalition of partners (insurance
companies, technical partners, GoK, donors,
NGOs….)
• Launch of pilot in Marsabit 2010
Matsaert, Kariuki and Mude (2011, DIP)
11. Implementing IBLI: Into the real world
Implementation of IBLI is a joint effort between ILRI (with support of
its technical and development partners), commercial underwriters
and implementing partners on the ground (government, NGOs, CBOs
etc).
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT, EXTENSION, MARKETING, SALES
12. Implementing IBLI: Challenges and Debates
• Initial push for commercial sustainability was met with the challenge of low sales.
• Variety of reasons for low sales: Implementation is complex and more still with
microinsurance in the challenging terrain of N. Kenya and Southern Ethiopia.
• Can we get to a critical mass of IBLI adoption necessary for sustaining the industry
without consistent public support at the early stages?
13. The Challenge of Sustainability
Commercial
Viability
Productive
Social Safety Net
• International experience shows that agricultural insurance programs that have
scaled up have strong public and private sector pillars, as part of overall agriculture
risk management strategy
• Research showing positive social and economic impacts provide some justification
for public support.
14. • IBLI survey launched in Marsabit, Kenya in Oct 2009 and in Borana, Ethiopia, Mar 2012
both before the respective launch of IBLI sales
• Marsabit survey: 925 households over 16 locations – currently 5 rounds of panel data
• Borana survey: 515 households over 17 kebeles – currently 4 rounds of panel data
IBLI Pilots, and research design, in Ethiopia and Kenya
15. IBLI Uptake Significant … But So Is Disadoption
Marsbit survey respondents uptake patterns (n=832)
Sales window New1
Replace-
ment2
Augment-
ing3
Hold-
ing4 Reenter5 Lapsed6 Total7
J-F 2010 233 0 0 0 0 0 233
J-F 2011 65 62 0 0 0 171 298
A-S 2011 65 0 31 96 22 149 363
A-S 2012 19 25 0 0 33 305 382
1First time purchasers. 2Replaced a policy about to expire. 3Purchased additional coverage that
overlapped with existing coverage. 4No purchase but had existing coverage. 5Let policy lapse for at
least one season but purchased this season. 6Past policies have lapsed and did not purchased
additional coverage.7Total number of households that have purchased to date.
16. Key determinants of IBLI uptake
General uptake findings — robust across specifications and surveys
Price: Responsive to premium rate (price inelastic). Price elasticity grows
w/design risk.
Design Risk: Design error reduces uptake; greater effect at higher premium rates.
Idiosyncratic Risk: Hh understanding of IBLI increases effect of idiosyncratic risk
Understanding: Extension/marketing improves accuracy of IBLI knowledge but no
independent effect of improved understanding on uptake.
Herd size: Likelihood of uptake increasing in HH herd size
Liquidity: IBLI purchase increasing w/HSNP participation and HH savings
Intertemporal Adverse Selection: HHs buy less when expecting good conditions.
Spatial Adverse Selection: HHs in divisions with covariate risk are more likely to
purchase and with greater coverage (spatial adverse selection).
Gender: no gender diff in uptake. Women more sensitive to risk of new product.
Bageant 2014; Jensen, Mude & Barrett 2014; Takahashi et al. 2014
17. Covariate risk is important but
household losses vary a lot …
and the index does not
perfectly track covariate losses.
- Only such study of index-insurance products that we know off. Crucial for
assessing value and precision of the contract.
Jensen, Barrett & Mude 2014
IBLI Marsabit Contract: An Imperfect Product
18. IBLI Impacts: Production
In spite of the incomplete coverage IBLI provides (“basis risk”), there are
strong indications that it benefits – or would benefit – most households.
• Even at unsubsidized premiums (40% loading) purchasing IBLI increases
herd survival rates by by considerably reducing risk of catastrophic loss.
• Majority of households are better off (reductions in herd losses)
purchasing IBLI coverage than otherwise
• IBLI covered households increase investments in maintaining livestock
through procurement of veterinary and vaccination services and reduce
herd sizes
• IBLI covered households experience improved production outcomes:
increases milk productivity of livestock and the total value of milk
produce
Jensen, Barrett & Mude 2014
19. IBLI Impacts: Welfare
• IBLI improves post-drought coping. After catastrophic 2011 drought, IBLI
covered households reported better expected behaviours/outcomes
• 36% reduction in likelihood of distress livestock sales, especially (64%) among
modestly better-off HHs (>8.4 TLU)
• 25% reduction in likelihood of reducing meals as a coping strategy, especially
(43%) among those with small or no herds
• IBLI shown to have a positive impact on improvements to mid-upper arm
circumference (MUAC), a strong predictor of child malnutrition
• IBLI households also post greater household income per adult equivalent
• In Ethiopia no payment (pre November 2014). In principal insurance
should be beneficial even without paying out (a “piece of mind” effect).
• Our Ethiopia survey collects measures of subjective well-being to gauge overall
life satisfaction.
• IBLI has a positive, stat sig effect on HH well-being, even after premium payment
and w/o any indemnity payments
Hirfrot , Barrett, Lentz and Taddesse 2014; Janzen and Carter 2013 NBER
20. IBLI: A cost-effective social protection tool
• Positive IBLI impacts do not necessary justify investing scarce development or
social protection funds in IBLI.
• Need to understand the opportunity cost vis-à-vis comparative interventions:
HSNP
• Research design resulting in strategically overlapping IBLI and HSNP units, and
timing of provision allows for comparative evaluation.
• RESULTS:
• Both IBLI coverage and HSNP participation increase household income from
milk, income per AE, and Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) of children.
• From a total cost point of view, HSNP and IBLI are similar in terms of impact.
• From marginal cost perspective (more important for scaling out), IBLI
considerably more cost effective than HSNP
– Note that this refers to IBLI product where client pays full risk premium plus loading of 40%
Jensen, Barrett & Mude 2014
21. IBLI contributions to KLIP
• Situational Analysis for a National Agricultural Insurance Policy (NAIP)
• Working closely with the World Bank team with contributions to key
outputs
• Leading role in Contract Design
• Supporting on Operations and Implementation
• Been requested to help develop Extension and Capacity
Development tools
Program Complementarities and Strategic Approach
• Program intention is similar: proactive risk management support to
vulnerable pastoralists
• Bring in considerable expertise and policy making authority (can
catalyze development of sustainable IBLI program)
• RISK 1: Crowding out private demand and willingness to pay
• RISK 2: Political considerations out-of-sync with operational and
technical requirements
Kenya Livestock Insurance Program and IBLI
22. Commercial Companies Gaining Momentum
Contracts Purchased - TIA Contracts Purchased - APA
• Even as GoK is committed to scaling up IBLI in the form of KLIP, IBLI sales
have been gaining momentum
• Range of factors could have contributed to this:
• Continued efforts on information provision, extension, marketing paying off?
• Forage Scarcity and Asset protection appears to be easier to explain and
more compelling
• APA – community dialogue, corporate social responsibility
• Takaful – scaling up, revised agency structure
• Continued support of key partners