- Fast-rising demand for milk, meat, and eggs in Africa is driving changes in the continent's livestock sector. This growing demand will need to be met through increased production. - There are three potential scenarios for meeting this demand: importing livestock products, importing industrial livestock production methods, or transforming smallholder livestock systems. - Enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions are needed to ensure Africa's livestock systems transition supports broad growth and environmental/human health.

1. African animal agriculture:
Grasping opportunities
International Livestock Congress
Houston, USA, March 4-5, 2015
Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI

2. Key messages
• Fast-rising demand in Africa for more milk, meat and eggs
is driving great changes in the continent’s livestock sector
• This growing demand will be met − one way or the other.
We need to work now to influence how it is met.
• The growth presents tremendous markets for smallholders and
also big suppliers –animal products and inputs
• The growth also presents Africa with many big and
new equity, health and environmental challenges –which are being
turned into OPPORTUNITIES
• Only enabling technologies, policies, markets and institutions will
ensure that Africa’s livestock systems transition to help, not hurt,
broad growth and human and environmental health

3. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock
FAOSTAT 2014
(values for 2012)
Cow milk has
overtaken rice
Eggs have
displaced
maize

4. Gains in meat consumption in developing
countries are outpacing those of developed
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050
Millionmetrictonnes
developing countries
developed countries
Hypothetical: If
developing-country
per capita
consumption rate
equalled that of
developed countries

5. 3 out of 6 of the highest value
African commodities are livestock
Source: FAOSTAT, 2013

6. Per capita global kilocalorie
availability from edible animal products
Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)

7. 7
FAO, 2012Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030
Percentage growth in demand
for livestock products: 2000−2030

8. Demand for livestock commodities will be met –
the only question is how
Scenario #1
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock products

9. Demand for livestock commodities will be met –
the only question is how
Scenario #1
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how

10. Demand for livestock commodities will be met –
the only question is how
Scenario #1
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3
Africa meets
livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

11. Trajectory
‘Strong growth’
Sector
Ruminant meat and
milk, esp. in SSA, India
− Pork in some regions
Issues
− Sustainable
productivity
- Market access and
food safety
− Zoonotic outbreaks
Opportunities
Novel approaches
spanning sustainable
productivity, markets,
institutional and policy
issues, risk analyses
‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and
pastoral systems; little
part in the production
response
− Multiple endemic
diseases
− Zoonoses
− Adaptive capacity
− Movement controls
Mostly public sector
interventions, mitigating
vulnerability, improving
resilience
‘High growth
with
externalities’
Mostly monogastric
− China for all
commodities
− Environmental
- Drug resistance
− Climate impacts on
new vector and
pathogen dynamics
− Disease scares
Modalities of operation
with private sector
largely established.
Managing environment
and health risks and
consumer demand
Distinguishing opportunities

12. The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock
production systems of developing countries
play huge (often unnoticed)
roles in global food supplies
Crop-livestock systems

13. These mixed farming systems
produce much of our meat and milk
• Mixed systems are an important source
of ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050
– Europe: 42% mixed temperate
– Latin America: 48% mixed humid
– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
• Mixed systems are an equally important
source of milk
– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-
livestock farms, regardless of region
– The big increases in milk production
to 2050 will continue to be in mixed
systems, esp. in Africa/Middle East

14. Tropical arid and semi-arid rangeland
based systems
population density less than 20 persons/km²
length of growing period (LGP) less than 60
days/annum
no significant crop production possible

15. Largest land use system on earth
35 million km2 – 24% of the total land
area
Support 50% of the World’s livestock

17. Global greenhouse gas efficiency
per kilogram of animal protein produced
Large livestock production inefficiencies
in the developing world present an opportunity
Herrero et al PNAS (in press)

18. Multipurpose rangelands
for livelihoods and the
environment
Livestock productivity
“sustainable
intensification”
Environmental
stewardship
“Payment for
Ecosystem
Services”

19. Potential carbon sequestration by 2040
Source: adapted from:
Thornton and Herrero, PNAS (2010)

20. Soil fertility: 23% of nitrogen for crop production
in crop-livestock systems comes from manure

21. Animal traction remains essential for
crop production, especially in sub-Saharan Africa
7 million oxen are the main source of power
for tilling soil in the Ethiopian highlands

22. Closing the efficiency gap

23. NOTE: Production efficiencies in US dairy
Source: Capper et al. 2009
Improved feeds,
breeds & health
=
4-fold increase
in milk

24. The Economist (23 February, 2015)
The Meat We Eat, the Lives We Lift
http://www.economistinsights.com/opinion/meat-
we-eat-lives-we-lift

25. Thank you!

26. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
better lives through livestock
ilri.org