- Global consumption and production of livestock products is projected to increase significantly by 2050, especially in Africa and the Middle East. Meat consumption is expected to increase 37% globally while milk consumption increases 61%. - Livestock production systems in Africa are transitioning rapidly to more industrialized systems for monogastrics like pork and poultry, though over 30% will still be small-holder in 2050. Ruminant production will continue to rely on mixed crop-livestock systems. - Animal diseases pose major constraints to Africa's livestock sector, resulting in high mortality rates and economic losses. As production intensifies, diseases may also increase unless addressed by improved vaccines, diagnostics, and delivery systems.

1. Evolution of animal production in
Africa and other emerging markets
Danilo Pezo
ILRI Country Representative in Uganda
African Livestock Conference and Exhibition (ALICE 2014)
Kampala, Uganda, 18th - 20th June 2014

2. Animal agriculture to 2050:
TRENDS
GLOBAL TRENDS: The Livestock
Revolution
• Livestock demand and
production are increasing
rapidly in developing
countries, and will continue to
rise
• Where and how most
livestock commodities are
produced, sold and consumed
is changing significantly

3. Consumption of livestock products
to 2050
• Globally:
An overall increase in per capita daily consumption
of livestock products of 37% compared to 2000
• Commodities differ:
– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption
– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption
• Regions differ:
– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie
consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC
– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption
will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC
Herrero et al. 2014

4. % change in consumption of animal products:
2000–2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry
meat
Eggs
China
Russia
Brazil
India
SSA
High income
843%
%
FAO 2011

5. Projections of livestock production increases:
2000–2050
• In half a century, total
livestock commodity
production is projected
to increase by 92%:
+106% for monogastric
meat (pig and poultry)
and poultry eggs
+88% for ruminant meat
(cow, sheep, goat, camel,
water buffalo)
+85% for milk
• With big regional
differences
Herrero et al. 2014

6. % change in production of animal products:
2000–2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Milk Beef Mutton Pork Poultry
meat
Eggs
China
Russia
Brazil
India
SSA
High income
%
FAO 2011

7. Import and export of meat
(000s metric tonnes)
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2011 2020 2011 2020 2011 2020
SSA
India
Brazil
Russia
China
ExportImport
Beef Pork Poultry
FAPRI 2012

8. 8
Production Systems

9. Monogastric production systems in Africa
are in rapid transition to industrial
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050
smallholder
industrial
Europe Latin America Africa/Middle East
Herrero et al. 2014
Over 30% of African
monogastric
production will still be
smallholder in 2050

10. Ruminant production systems
 Mixed systems are an important source of ruminant meat
o Europe: 42% mixed temperate
o Latin America: 48% mixed humid
o Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid
 For milk:
o Over 50% of milk comes from mixed systems,
regardless of the region
o Big increases in milk production by 2050 continue to be
in mixed systems, especially in Africa and the Middle
East

11. Smallholder mixed crop-livestock keepers
are competitive
East African dairy
• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd
• Efficient use of forages results in lower milk production costs
• Small- and large-scale Kenyan poultry and dairy producers
have same levels of efficiency and profits
Ugandan pig systems
• 90% of production in hands of smallholders (< 3 sows or <5
fattening pigs)
• Smallholders have lower unit costs
• Industrial pig production highly dependent on mixed feeds.
• Great opportunities for productivity increases, if diseases
(i.e., ASF, parasites) are controlled, and farmers have better
access to information.
• High demand for pork, and still increasing IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2013

12. Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector
Strong growth
Intensifying and
increasingly market
oriented often
transforming smallholder
systems
Fragile growth
Where remoteness,
marginal land resources or
agro climatic vulnerability
restrict intensification
High growth
with externalities
Intensified livestock
systems with diverse
challenges including
the environment and
human health

13. Policies
Animal health
★Vaccines
★Diagnostics
★Delivery systems
Markets & institutions
★New business
arrangements
★Good access to
markets
Human H & N
★Risk- not rule-based
regulations
★Controlled zoonoses
★Balanced diets
Environment
★Improved feed
efficiency = < GHGE
★Waste management
Feed
★Judicious biomass use
★Improved feeds/feed strategies
★Viable feed markets
Genetics
★Improved local
breeds
★Breeds well-matched
to environments
Trajectories of growth for the livestock sector

14. • Animal diseases results in low productivity, high mortality
rates, consequently are responsible for important
economic losses
• As livestock systems intensify in developing countries,
diseases may increase
• Zoonotic diseases kill 2.2 million each year and sickens 2.4
billion
Young Adult
Cattle 22% 6%
Shoat 28% 11%
Poultry 70% 30%
Otte & Chilonda IAEA
Annual mortality of African livestock
(About half due to preventable or curable diseases)
Animal diseases: a key constraint in Africa

15. Annual losses from selected diseases:
Africa and South Asia
BMGF
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Billion$lostyearly
South Asia
Africa
Africa
South Asia

16. Animal health markets:
Opportunities in developing countries
• Proper delivery systems for smallholder
farmers (i.e., vaccination, technical
assistance, etc.)
• Simple biosecurity measures
• Quality assurance for veterinary
medicines
• Appropriate packaging/marketing (e.g.,
drugs in smaller packages)
• Surveillance for drug resistance

17. Animal feed markets:
Trends in developing countries to 2030
• Use of crop residues is decreasing,
but still comprises >50% of livestock
diets in SSA and South Asia
• Use of crop by-products (e.g., oilcakes)
and concentrates is increasing, but
remains <10%, except in India dairy
(25%)
• Use of planted forages is increasing
• Use of compounded feeds bought from
markets is increasing
World Bank 2012

18. Animal feed markets:
Opportunities in developing countries
• Feed technologies
– Food-feed crops
– Proper management of forage
resources, including fodder trees
– Better use of available feeds
– Via processing (chopping)
– Feed mixtures (rations)
– Strategic supplementation
• Institutional and market issues
• Feed regulatory policies

19. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is
given to ILRI.
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