#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
13th
Jan’2017
HighLights:
 India’s CPI dropped to 3.41 percent in the previous month
 US Unemployment Claims rose to 247,000 w/e on 6th Jan’17
 Euro Zone Industrial Production rose by 1.5 percent in Nov
 India’s Industrial Production surged by 5.7 percent in Nov
Indian Rupee gained for third consecutive day and appreciated mar-
ginally around 3paise to end at 68.18 against the US dollar on Tues-
day. The currency appreciated on account of selling of dollars from
exporters and banks. Further, upbeat domestic market sentiments led
to positive movement in the currency.
However, outflow of foreign funds from selling in equities by the insti-
tutional investors capped gains in the currency. So far this year, for-
eign institutional investors sold $459.20 million in equity and $22.2
million in debt. Investors were cautious ahead of the CPI and IIP data
to be released. Indian Rupee moved in range of 67.955 to 68.196 on
Thursday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for dol-
lar was seen at 68.0858 and Euro stood at 72.2322 as on 12th Jan’17.
For the month of January2017, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.3807.08 crores ($559.08 million) as on 12thJanuary 2017.
Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs.3807.08crores ($559.08 million) as on 12thJanuary 2017.
India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 3.41 percent in December as against a rise of 3.63 percent in November. Indus-
trial Production surged by 5.7 percent in November from a previous decline of 1.9 percent in October. Manufacturing Output
gained by 5.5 percent in November with respect to fall of 2.4 percent in October.
US Dollar Index dropped around 0.4 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to unfavourable economic data from the coun-
try. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments
which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Unemployment Claims grew by 10,000 to 247,000 for the week ending on 6th Jan’17 as against a rise of 237,000 in prior
week. Import Prices rose by 0.4 percent in December from a decline of 0.2 percent in November.
Euro against dollar jumped around 0.3 percent on Thursday on account of weakness in the dollar index along with favourable
economic data from the region. However, sharp upside was capped as a result of upbeat global market sentiments.
Italian Industrial Production grew by 0.7 percent in November as against a rise of 0.1 percent in October. Euro Zone Industrial
Production expanded by 1.5 percent in November from a gain of 0.1 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound fell around 0.4 percent in Thursday’s trade as a result of weak global market sentiments. However, weaker
dollar prevented sharp negative movement in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.6 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in
global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.02 101.67 (0.65) (0.64)
USD/INR(Spot) 68.08 68.10 (0.02) (0.03)
USD/INR(NseJan) 68.21 68.27 (0.06) (0.09)
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.49 72.27 0.22 0.30
EUR/INR(NseJan) 72.59 72.08 0.51 0.70
GBP/INR(Spot) 83.57 83.16 0.41 0.49
GBP/INR(NseJan) 83.75 83.19 0.56 0.67
JPY/INR(NseJan) 59.69 58.92 0.77 1.29
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, it has been observed that the JPYINR has
completed a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern at 57.55 levels
the coordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 56 to 67.90,AB
of the leg completed at 63.30 (i.e.38.20% of XA leg.), BC
of the leg completed at 67.50 (i.e. near 88.60% of AB leg)
and CD of the leg completed at 57.55 level. (i.e. 88% of
XA and 224% of BC leg).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading in
oversold zone which indicates up side momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover which suggest possibilities of rebound in
the prices on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR buy in the
range of 59.50 with SL of 59.20 for target of 60.10 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has been moving in its rising channel pattern
and prices have been taking support of its lower band of
channel pattern at 67.90 levels on hourly chart.
On hourly chart price has taken support of its 61.80%
Fibonacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 21 HSMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 68.10 with SL of 67.90 for target of 68.50.
Currency Highlights
13th
Jan’2017
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.76 67.97 68.08 68.18 68.29 68.39 68.60
JPYINR 58.96 59.31 59.51 59.66 59.86 60.01 60.36

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
13th
Jan’2017
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has taken support of its horizontal trend line
at 71.80 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has also
taken support of its falling trend line at 70.70 levels on
daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 21 DSMA on daily
chart, which suggest further bullishness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI has been mov-
ing above 50 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullish-
ness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on daily chart, which support our bullish view to
the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 73.10 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The price has been trading in inverted head and shoul-
der formation and prices ay test its neckline at 85 levels
on hourly chart.
The price have shown breakout its horizontal line at 84
levels on hourly chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading above 21 HSMA,
which suggest short term trend looks positive.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given posi-
tive cross over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of
bullishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading above 45
levels on hourly chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further rebound in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
84.30 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 82.36 82.99 83.37 83.62 84.00 84.25 84.88
EURINR 71.87 72.19 72.41 72.51 72.73 72.83 73.15

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
13th
Jan’2017
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
13.01.17 05:30 AM Fed Chair Yellen Speaks More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; USDINR
13.01.17 Tentative Trade Balance 298B 345B Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; CNY
13.01.17 07:00 PM Core Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.01.17 07:00 PM PPI m/m 0.4% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.01.17 07:00 PM Retail Sales m/m 01.% 0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
13.01.17 08:30 PM Prelim UoM Consumer Senti-
ment
98.2 98.6 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
13th
Jan’2017
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2017.01.13 09:03:34 +05'30'