#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
28th
Dec’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee fell to three week low at 68.06 on Tuesday
 Bank of Japan (BOJ) Core CPI fell to 0.2 percent in December
 US CB Consumer Confidence surged to 113.7-level in Dec’16
 Japan’s Retail Sales jumped by 1.7 percent in Nov’16
Indian Rupee came under pressure to drop to three week low and de-
preciated around 33 paise to end at 68.06 against the US dollar on
Tuesday. The currency depreciated on account of month end dollar
demand from importers and bankers. Further, constant outflow of
foreign funds from markets along with foreign institutional selling kept
pressure on the currency.
Since 8th Nov’16, the foreign institutional investors have sold a com-
bined of over $9.72 billion in local equity and debt markets. So far this
year, foreign institutional investors have bought $3.44 billion in equi-
ties and sold $6.61 billion in debt.
However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented due to upbeat domestic market sentiments. Indian Rupee moved in
the range of 67.955 to 68.110 in Tuesday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen
at 67.99 and Euro stood at 71.04 as on 27th Dec’16. For the month of December 2016, FII outflows in equities totalled at
Rs.6304.76 crores ($927.81 million) as on 27th December 2016. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.22437.71
crores ($3444.00 million) as on 27th December 2016.
US Dollar Index gained marginally in Tuesday’s trading session due to favourable economic data from the country. However,
sharp upside in the currency was capped as rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for
the low yielding currency. US Standard & Poor's (S&P)/Case-Shiller (CS) Composite-20 House Price Index (HPI) rose by 5.1 per-
cent in November as against a gain of 5 percent in October. Richmond Manufacturing Index jumped by 4 points to 8-mark in
December from 4-level in previous month. The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence surged by 4.3 points to 113.7-
level in existing month with respect to rise of 109.4-mark in November.
Euro against dollar rose marginally on Tuesday on account of upbeat global market sentiments along with estimates of favour-
able economic data from the region. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of stronger dollar.
The Sterling Pound declined around 0.14 percent in Tuesday’s trade as a result of strength in the dollar index. However, sharp
fall in the currency was restricted as a result of upbeat global market sentiments.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.3 percent in Tuesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in
global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Core Consumer
Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.2 percent in December as against a rise of 0.3 percent in November. Housing Starts dropped to 6.7
percent in November from a rise of 13.7 percent in October. Prelim Industrial Production gained by 1.5 percent in November.
Retail Sales jumped by 1.7 percent in November with respect to decline of 0.2 percent a month ago.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 103.02 102.97 0.05 0.05
USD/INR(Spot) 68.01 67.73 0.28 0.41
USD/INR(NseDec) 68.05 67.76 0.29 0.43
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.11 70.80 0.31 0.44
EUR/INR(NseDec) 71.11 70.85 0.26 0.37
GBP/INR(Spot) 83.48 83.27 0.21 0.25
GBP/INR(NseDec) 83.47 83.29 0.18 0.22
JPY/INR(NseDec) 58.00 57.90 0.10 0.17
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart, it has been observed that the JPYINR has
completed a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern at 57.55 levels
the coordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 56 to 67.90,AB
of the leg completed at 63.30 (i.e.38.20% of XA leg.), BC
of the leg completed at 67.50 (i.e. near 88.60% of AB leg)
and CD of the leg completed at 57.55 level. (i.e. 88% of
XA and 224% of BC leg).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading in
oversold zone which indicates up side momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover which suggest possibilities of rebound in
the prices on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR buy in the
range of 57.85 with SL of 57.50 for target of 58.60 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
at 67.50 levels on daily chart and price has retested its
breakout trend line at 67.40 levels.
On daily chart price has taken support of its 61.80% Fib-
onacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 67.88 with SL of 67.55 for target of 68.40.
Currency Highlights
28th
Dec’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.46 67.70 67.85 67.94 68.09 68.18 68.42
JPYINR 57.41 57.67 57.84 57.93 58.10 58.19 58.45

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
28th
Dec’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has taken support of its horizontal trend line
at 70.60 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has also
taken support of its falling trend line at 70.70 levels on
daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 15 HEMA on hourly
chart, which suggest further bullishness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI has moved up
form its oversold zone, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on 4 hourly chart, which support our bullish view
to the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 71.70 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its rising channel
pattern at 85 levels on daily chart. The pair has been
facing resistance of its falling trend line at 86.10 levels
on daily chart. The prices have been facing resistance of
its horizontal line at 86 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 50 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend looks negative.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive cross over on daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further weakness in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
82.60 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 82.75 83.08 83.28 83.41 83.61 83.74 84.07
EURINR 70.33 70.67 70.89 71.01 71.23 71.35 71.69

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
28th
Dec’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
28.12.16 08:30 PM Pending Home Sales m/m 0.1% 0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
28th
Dec’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.12.28 08:43:08 +05'30'