The document provides a technical analysis of several currency pairs including USDINR, EURINR, GBPINR, and JPYINR against the Indian Rupee for the period of 24th November 2014. It finds that USDINR and EURINR are in short-term downtrends based on price patterns, moving averages, and other indicators. GBPINR is also resuming its major downtrend following the movement of related currency pairs. JPYINR continues its strong downtrend and is consolidating in a range. Economic indicators from Germany are also included that could impact the EUR.

1. 24th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
USDINR
USDINR Technical View:
 As mention in the previous “Currency Highlights” report, USDINR is now in a short term downtrend.
 Price Pattern: USDINR price pattern has reverse for a short term downtrend, as the pair is making new lows from its high of 62.30 levels. This bearish price pattern will continue for the pair, till USDINR do not successfully trades and close above 62.00 levels with 61.60 levels as the target for this short term downtrend.
 Moving Average: The below hourly chart clearly shows how prices have traded and closed below the 50 & 20 EMA’s. The averages are also on the verge to reverse and if the pair trades below them today, then the will be a negative crossover to give sell signal suggesting the pair short term downtrend to become intermediate downtrend.
 MACD: The MACD indicator has given a sell signal as momentum has changed to negative. Also MACD has crossed the signal line confirming the bearishness to remain intact for the pair.
 RSI: RSI indicator has not only reading below mid-range level 50 but also staying at the over-sold region clearly suggesting the momentum will remain weak till RSI do not starts to read and stay above the mid-range level 50.
 ADX: ADX indicator is reading at lower levels and showing the weakness of trending movement. So once ADX read’s below the 20 levels then, pair will start to consolidate in a narrow range.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
24.11.14
08:15 PM Flash Services PMI 57.1
Actual > Expected=Good for USD

2. 24th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
EURINR
EURINR Technical View:
 EURINR acted as per our view and the pair is now back to its major downtrend.
 Price Pattern: The short term uptrend of the pair reversed to its previous major downtrend. The price pattern is now very bearish for the pair, till there is no confirm reversal to upside. In the coming trading session, the pair will observe more weakness if USDINR trades below 61.60 levels as per inter-market correlation between both pairs.
 Moving Average: The 50 & 20 EMA’S has given the sell signal with negative crossover and this sell signal will remain valid till prices do not reverse for the buy signal generated by the averages.
 MACD: The indicator sell signal will strongly remain valid as it reading below the signal line. If MACD reverse to give buy signal then it can be strictly ignore as the major downtrend exists.
 RSI: Weak momentum is active for the pair, as RSI is reading at the over-sold region. The RSI will continue to read it for negative momentum for the pair till price do not reverse for intermediate uptrend.
 ADX: Trending phase is active for the pair is its reading well above the 20 levels. The pair will observe a higher price range till the trending phase remains intact for the pair.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
24.11.14
24-28TH German Import Prices m/m
0.3%
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR
24.11.14
24-28TH Nationwide HPI m/m
103.2
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR
24.11.14
02:30 PM German Ifo Business Climate
-6.8
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR

3. 24th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
GBPINR
GBPINR Technical View:
 With the downtrend in USDINR& EURINR pair, GBPINR following both the pairs.
 Price Pattern: GBPINR also resumes back to its major downtrend and the overall pattern looks bearish for the pair. The pair will observe weakness in the coming trading session as GBPUSD pair remains weak as its strong correlation exits with GBPINR.
 Moving Average: As per our view GBPINR traded and closed below both the averages making the pair bearish and also there is a negative crossover of both the averages suggesting the major downtrend will exits for the pair till prices closes below both the averages.
 MACD: MACD sell signal strongly remains valid going with the trend. So traders can wait for a new sell signal to be generated to remain with the trend and ignoring any buy signal.
 RSI: The indicator is reading well below the mid-range level 50 and soon to read and stay at the over-sold region. RSI indicator clearly indicates bearishness will continue for the pair.
 ADX: ADX indicator is indicating the trending phase to remain valid for the pair. The pair will make new lows in coming trading session with ADX reading at higher values.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
24.11.14
24-28TH Nationwide HPI m/m
0.5%
Actual > Expected=Good for GBP

4. 24th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
JPYINR
JPYINR Technical View:
 The pair continues to remain in tis strong downtrend and will observe more weakness following the above currencies.
 Price Pattern: The bearish price pattern continues to remain valid as the pair consolidates in a range. Our suggestion will be not to trade in the pair, till it does not show the sign of reversal and ending its current consolidation phase in a downtrend.
 Moving Average: There will be no sign of reversal for the pair till it do not trades above both 50 & 20 EMA’s on hourly basis.
 MACD: Since the major downtrend exits for the pair, it will be better to consider only the sell signal generated by the indicator.
 RSI: RSI indicator has made many attempts but failed to read and stay above the mid-range level 50. This strong suggest the current negative momentum will exist in the pair till RSI do not successfully reads and stay above the mid-range level 50.
 ADX: ADX is reading very close to the 20 levels. So this suggest that if ADX starts to read below this level then the pair can continue its consolidation movement for few day before showing a trending movement.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
24.11.14
No Data For JPY Today

5. 24th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
Amit Pawar (Research Associate) amit.pawar@choiceindia.com
Rohan Shinde (Research Associate) rohan.shinde@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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6. 24th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
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