The document provides a technical analysis of the USDINR, EURINR, GBPINR, and JPYINR currency pairs for November 10th, 2014. It finds that USDINR has changed from a downtrend to a short-term uptrend, while the other pairs remain in downtrends. Moving averages, MACD, RSI, and ADX indicators are analyzed for each pair to determine momentum and trend strength. Economic indicators from Italy, Germany, and Japan are also listed and their potential impact on the euro and yen analyzed. The document was prepared by Choice Broking for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice.

1. 10th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
USDINR
USDINR Technical View:
 Finally, USDINR has changed its downtrend to a short term uptrend with 62.00 levels is the major resistance
 Price Pattern: The price of USDINR pair in the friday’s trading session reversed for a short term uptrend with USDINR making a high of 61.88 levels making the pair strong for a short term. The pair has the major resistance at the psychological level 62.00 and if USDINR in today’s trading session trades and close above the level then, intermediate uptrend will start with next target of 62.25 levels.
 Moving Average: The below hourly chart shows, there is the positive crossover of 50 & 20 EMA’s which strongly confirms the uptrend. Till this buy signal of both the averages continues to hold, the uptrend will remain valid.
 MACD: The MACD indicator as per its nature has given the buy signal with its positive crossover suggesting the trend is strong till the prices trades above 61.60 levels. MACD will continue to hold its buy signal as the overall momentum for the pair is positive.
 RSI: Momentum indicator RSI is also showing the strong gain in its strength as its reading values above the mid-range level 50. This also confirms the positive momentum will remain intact for the pair till RSI continues to read above the 50 levels and soon approaching the over-brought levels making the short-term uptrend to turn into intermediate uptrend.
 ADX: After sideways ranges in USDINR, ADX indicator has now moved to read values above the 20 levels suggesting the trending phase as started for the pair. In today’s trading session ADX will continue to read higher values above the 25 levels confirming the pair’s intermediate uptrend.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
10.11.14
No Data For USD Today

2. 10th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
EURINR
EURINR Technical View:
 The EURINR major trend is bearish, but with rally in USDINR prices EURINR also got some support in friday’s trading session.
 Price Pattern: The pair major trend continues to remain down, as EURUSD is observing the bearishness making the pair to remain weak. The prices getting support for intraday upside was due the short term uptrend in USDINR. The price pattern shows the pair is selling on rise till there is no major reversal price pattern for upsides is form.
 Moving Average: Prices continues to trade well below the 50 & 20 EMA’s which firmly confirms the major trend to remain down till prices do not trade above the both averages. However if prices are able to close above 20 EMA on hourly basis then it will hint towards the upcoming reversal.
 MACD: The indicator has given buy signal as the price rally in previous session. But as mentioned earlier currently it will be better to ignore any signal generating from MACD till there is no confirm price reversal for upside.
 RSI: RSI indicator has gain some strength as its now reading values above the oversold region. But from the below hourly chart, RSI is below mid-range levels 50 suggesting the weakness still exits for the pair. If in today’s trading session RSI maintains to stay and read above mid-range level 50 then this will hint the trend may change soon.
 ADX: The ADX indicator now continues to read above the 25 levels as the trending phase still exits for the pair. If ADX from here moves to read lower values then this will hint towards the pair may enter a consolidation phase before changing its downtrend to uptrend.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
10.11.14
02:30 PM Italian Industrial Production m/m
0.3%
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR
10.11.14
03:00 PM Sentix Investor Confidence
-13.7
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR

3. 10th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
GBPINR
GBPINR Technical View:
 Like EURINR, GBPINR major downtrend continues showing no sign of reversal.
 Price Pattern: GBPINR price pattern continues to remain for bearish with deprecation of pound against major currencies. In the friday’s trading session price do not get support from the rally in USDINR which suggest the pair will continue to take clues from the trend in GBPUSD pair.
 Moving Average: As the pair is in downtrend, so each day prices are trading well below the 50 & 20 EMA’s. If in today’s trading session prices are able to trade and close above the 20 EMA then this will suggest GBPINR is on the verge to reverse its trend, but a definite confirmation will come with prices to trade and close above the 50 EMA.
 MACD: MACD indicator is now only the leading indicator to give a buy signal but the validity of this signal will be tested in today’s trading session whether prices are able to trade above the 98.00 levels changing the trend for the pair.
 RSI: Despite of the prices able to close from its intraday lows in the previous trading session, momentum indicator RSI has started to read from the oversold region. But RSI is still under mid-range level 50, so it will be wait and watch to see in today’s trading session whether RSI starts to read above the 50 levels or again fall back at oversold region.
 ADX: ADX indicator is now hinting towards the trading phase may start for GBPINR as it will read lower values. This also suggests the pair will enter a sideways phase before reversal for uptrend.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
10.11.14
No Data For GBP Today

4. 10th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
JPYINR
JPYINR Technical View:
 Downtrend continues for the pair, as globally yen remains in a strong downtrend against major world currencies.
 Price Pattern: The JPYINR price pattern remains bearish and showing no sign of trend reversal. The prices are getting some support from the uptrend in USDINR but as the major trend is down the pair will be sell on rise till there is no definite reversal price pattern is form. If USDINR observes weakness in today’s trading session, then JPYINR will start to trade at new lows.
 Moving Average: From the below hourly chart, prices continues to trade below both the averages making the pair weak. Till there is no successful crossover of both the averages the downtrend will remain intact for the pair and also the 50 EMA will act as the major resistance and give opportunity for trader’s to sell the pair.
 MACD: In JPYINR pair, MACD is now the only leading indicator to give a buy signal but since the major trend is bearish it will be better to ignore this buy signal. But if MACD reverse to give a sell signal then it can be surely be consider.
 RSI: After staying and reading at oversold region for few days. RSI finally has shown some strength as its reading values above the 30 levels. But since the pair momentum is negative it will be tough for RSI to read and stay above the mid-range level 50.
 ADX: The indicator is now reversing from the higher levels for the trending phase. If ADX continues to read lower values this will hints towards JPYINR will enter a sideways trend.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
10.11.14
No Data for JPY Today

5. 10th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
Amit Pawar (Research Associate) amit.pawar@choiceindia.com
Rohan Shinde (Research Associate) rohan.shinde@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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6. 10th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
Disclaimer
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