1. 17th
Nov’14 Currency Highlights
USDINR
USDINR Technical View:
Finally, after a sideways trend USDINR as mention in the previous “Currency Highlights” report has reversal its trend to up.
Price Pattern: The sideways price pattern has changed to the uptrend price pattern making USDINR to rally and made the
intraday high of 61.97 levels. Now to make this short term uptrend to convert in intermediate uptrend, USDINR has to trade
and close above the 62.00 levels which is the crucial resistance level. So the next targets come at 62.30 levels.
Moving Average: As mention earlier, there was the positive crossover of both the 50 & 20 EMA’s on hourly basis confirming
the uptrend. Till prices trades and close above both the averages the uptrend will remain intact for the pair with 62.30 as
the target of this rally.
MACD: MACD indicator buy signal to remain valid till there is no major price reversal for downside .It will be also better not
to take any sell signal generated by the MACD indicator if USDINR trades in narrow range.
RSI: RSI indicator not only staying above mid-range level 50 but now also reading values near the over-brought level 70.Till
RSI maintain to stay above the mid-range level 50 the positive momentum for the pair will continue supporting our view of
strong bullish on USDINR.
ADX: As the sideways market for the pair ended, ADX move to read higher values above 20 levels showing USDINR current
uptrend is going to be strong trending phase for the pair which again confirms our view to be bullish.
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
17.11.14 07:00 PM Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.2 Actual > Expected=Good for USD
17.11.14 07:45 PM Capacity Utilization Rate 79.3% Actual > Expected=Good for USD
17.11.14 07:45 PM Industrial Production m/m 1.0% Actual > Expected=Good for USD
2. 17th
Nov’14 Currency Highlights
EURINR
EURINR Technical View:
The pair after a major downtrend has finally changed its trend to short term uptrend.
Price Pattern: The price pattern of EURINR is showing how the pair is on the verge to reverse for intermediate uptrend. If
the prices in today’s trading session starts to trade and close above the friday’s high of 77.24 levels then the intermediate
uptrend will be confirm for the pair for the target of 78.00 levels.
Moving Average: In the friday’s trading session prices have just maintain to close above both the 50 & 20 EMA’s on hourly
basis. There is a strong probability of the positive crossover of both the average to give intermediate buy signal for the pair
which will strongly confirm our view to be bullish on EURINR pair.
MACD: The indicator buy signal will also remain valid as the prices are in the short term uptrend and MACD will continue to
read higher values confirming the uptrend.
RSI: Momentum indicator RSI has finally maintained to read and stay above mid-range level 50 confirming the strength in
the pair. The RSI momentum strength will be tested in today’s trading session, if EURINR observes a sideways trend or
decline due to weak USDINR.
ADX: As the pair is changing its sideways markets trend to uptrend, ADX has started reading higher values from its previous
lower levels. If ADX continues to read the values above 20 levels then it will confirm the trending phase has started for the
pair ending its current consolidation phase.
3. 17th
Nov’14 Currency Highlights
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
17.11.14 02:30 PM Italian Trade Balance 2.06B Actual > Expected=Good for EUR
17.11.14 03:30 PM Trade Balance 15.8B Actual > Expected=Good for EUR
17.11.14 04:30 PM German Buba Monthly Report More Hawkish=Good for EUR
17.11.14 07:30 PM ECB President Draghi Speaks More Hawkish=Good for EUR
4. 17th
Nov’14 Currency Highlights
GBPINR
GBPINR Technical View:
Despite of uptrend in USDINR & EURINR pair, GBPINR continues its downtrend.
Price Pattern: The price pattern of pair is still bearish however in the friday’s trading session the prices got some support
from the rally in USDINR & EURINR pair. If USDINR reverse for intermediate uptrend then only the price pattern for GBPINR
will reverse for a short term uptrend.
Moving Average: Price is facing strong resistance at 20 EMA on hourly basis. Now only if prices in today’s trading session
starts to trade and close above this average then, only the pair will reverse for a uptrend else its current downtrend will
remain intact.
MACD: If you look at the below hourly chart of GBPINR, MACD indicator is on the verge to give a buy signal. So one can
trade only on this for intraday basis, once prices starts to trade above the yesterday high of 97.19 levels.
RSI: The RSI however is reading and staying below the mid-range level 50 still suggesting the momentum is weak for the
pair. If RSI starts to read and stay above this mid-range level then, it will confirm the pair is ready for the upward reversal.
ADX: ADX indicator is suggesting the trending phase to remain intact for the pair as its reading values well above the 25
levels. ADX will starts to read lower values from its current level of 35, if GBPINR trades in a sideways range in today’s
trading session.
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
17.11.14 05:31 AM Rightmove HPI m/m 2.6% Actual > Expected=Good for GBP
5. 17th
Nov’14 Currency Highlights
JPYINR
JPYINR Technical View:
As the downtrend remains intact for the pair, JPYINR continues to trade in a very narrow range.
Price Pattern: Since the price pattern for the pair is bearish, JPYINR is trading in a very narrow range at the bottom levels of
its major downtrend. Till there is no price pattern reversal developed, JPYIRN will continue to remain range bound in a
downtrend.
Moving Average: Price continues to remain below both the averages suggesting the major downtrend is still intact for the
pair. Till prices do not starts to trade and close above both the 50 & 20 EMA’s on hourly basis, downtrend will exits for the
pair
MACD: The indicator is on the verge to give a buy signal. This signal can be taken on intraday basis if prices start trading
above 20 EMA in today’s trading session.
RSI: RSI continues to read values at near the mid-range level 50. So if JPYINR is ready for reversal, then RSI will gain
strength and starts reading and staying above the mid-range level 50.
ADX: ADX indicator continues to read and stay above 25 levels suggesting trending phase is still valid for the pair, despite
prices trades in a narrow range .This also indicate the pair will observe a large movement in prices on intraday basis if ADX
continues stays above the 25 levels.
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
17.11.14 05:20 AM Prelim GDP q/q -1.8% Actual > Expected=Good for JPY
17.11.14 05:20 AM Prelim GDP Price Index y/y 2.0% Actual > Expected=Good for JPY
7. 17th
Nov’14 Currency Highlights
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