Currency highlights 03.11.14

03rd Nov’14 Currency Highlights
USDINR
USDINR Technical View:
 Finally, as predicated in the previous report USDINR reverse its trend to down.
 Price Pattern: In the friday’s trading session USDINR change its sideways price pattern to a downtrend for the next target of 61.30 levels. However the pair can observe a strong support near the 61.50 levels due to strength in dollar against major currencies. If the pair maintains to stay above the 61.50 levels then, the sideways trend to be resume for the pair with range of 61.50 to 61.90 levels. Only a major price action above or below this levels will make the pair to go for intermediate trend.
 Moving Average: Currently prices have close below the both 50 & 20 EMA’s on hourly basis suggesting the weakness in the pair. Today trading session will be extremely important whether prices really maintains to stay below the both averages or turns up making the current downtrend to fail.
 MACD: Sell signal generated by MACD indicator in the previous trading session is giving support to our bearish view for the pair. So today’s trading session will be crucial one to see if MACD really continues its sell signal or reverse to give a buy signal changing the short term downtrend.
 RSI: RSI momentum looks weak and in the previous trading session it continues to read values below the mid-range level 50. RSI in today’s trading session will give us a clear view whether USDINR short term downtrend turns for a intermediate uptrend or reverse for the previous sideways trend.
 ADX: The indicator is reading at very lower levels as we seen in the friday’s trading session prices traded in a very small range. If higher price volatility is observed in today’s trading session then, ADX will reverse to read higher values for the trending phase.

Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
03.11.14
08:15 PM Final Manufacturing PMI 56.2
Actual > Expected=Good for USD
03.11.14
08:30 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.6
03.11.14
08:30 PM Construction Spending m/m -0.8%
03.11.14
08:30 PM ISM Manufacturing Prices 59.5
03.11.14
All Day Total Vehicle Sales 16.4M

EURINR
EURINR Technical View:
 The pair continues its downtrend with strong appreciation of indian rupee against the other currencies pair.
 Price Pattern: The bearish price pattern continues for the pair as the appreciation of rupee continues. Also globally, EURUSD pair continues its depreciation putting pressure on the EURINR prices. The below chart shows no sign of trend reversal, with the downtrend in USDINR will make the pair to trade at lower levels.
 Moving Average: The sell signal generated by the both 50 & 20 EMA’s continues to remain valid as the prices trades and closes each day below the both averages. Only the prices able to close above 20 EMA’s on the hourly basis will give us some sign of trend may reverse.
 MACD: The MACD indicator continues its sell signal as the prices trades at lower levels in the previous session. Currently, it will be better to avoid any signals generated by the indicator till there is no conformation for trend reversal.
 RSI: Momentum indicator RSI continues to lose its strength as its reading values below the mid-range level 50. Only a definitive price reversal for the price pattern and averages will make us to give clear view with respect to the indicator.
 ADX: ADX indicator reads for the trending phase as the prices on the daily basis are making new lows. ADX will continue to read for the trending phase till prices do not reverse its trend or trades in a small range.
03.11.14
01:45 PM Spanish Manufacturing PMI
52.6
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR
03.11.14
02:15 PM Italian Manufacturing PMI
50.7
03.11.14
02:30 PM Final Manufacturing PMI
50.7

GBPINR
GBPINR Technical View:
 The pair continues remain in pressure as the weakness seen in the USDINR and EURINR pair.
 Price Pattern: The price pattern for the GBPINR continues to remain bearish as the prices here are showing no sign for trend reversal. However in the friday’s trading session the prices bottom out from its lower levels. This hint towards the pair will be the leading currency pair if USDINR reverse for a uptrend.
 Moving Average: The 50 & 20 EMA’s on the below hourly chart suggest the trend is bearish till prices are trading and closing below the both averages. This also suggests that now it will take a long time for the pair to reverse for a uptrend with respective to the both averages.
 MACD: The indicator is on the verge to give a buy signal but this buy signal validity will be only for the intraday perspective if GBPUSD appreciates. However a sell signal will be only definitive as the intermediate trend is bearish.
 RSI: RSI indicator is suggesting the pair may gain some strength for uptrend for intraday perspective but since the intermediate trend is down and if RSI reverse from the mid-range 50 levels then the pair will be sell on rise.
 ADX: ADX is reading near the 25 levels which suggest that it will either read for trending phase or falls below the 25 level to read for a trading phase. The definitive clue from the indicator will come in today’s trading session give a clear view on the next trend for the pair.
03.11.14
03:00 PM Manufacturing PMI
51.6
Actual > Expected=Good for GBP

JPYINR
JPYINR Technical View:
 JPYINR is the most weak currency pair among the other three and it is in a secular downtrend.
 Price Pattern: The price pattern is very bearish for the pair and as mentioned in the previous report JPYINR will be sell on rise and our same view continues for the pair. Globally, dollar has appreciated strong against yen which has make the pair weakest. If USDINR goes for intermediate downtrend then, we will observe more weakness in the coming trading session.
 Moving Average: From the below hourly chart one can see how prices have maintain to trade below the both averages. This makes the pair to continue its current downtrend till there is no positive crossover of 50 & 20 EMA on hourly basis for the confirm trend reversal for upside.
 MACD: Sell signal from the MACD indicator continues as there is secular downtrend in JPYNR. So as mention previously, it will be better to ignore any new buy signal generated by the indicator till there is no confirm trend reversal sign.
 RSI: RSI remains at the oversold region as the downtrend in prices continues, till RSI do not starts reading and staying above the mid-range 50 levels the pair will be sell on rise.
 ADX: ADX is now reading at higher levels as we are observing the trending phase in the pair. ADX if turns and start reading lower values then it suggest that JPYINR can reverse for a sideways trend before reversing for intermediate uptrend.
03.11.14
No Data For JPY Today

Amit Pawar (Research Associate) amit.pawar@choiceindia.com
Rohan Shinde (Research Associate) rohan.shinde@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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Currency highlights 03.11.14

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