The document provides a technical analysis and overview of several currency pairs including USDINR, EURINR, GBPINR, JPYINR for September 30th, 2014. It analyzes the trends and momentum indicators for each currency pair, noting that USDINR and JPYINR trends have become bullish while EURINR may see a trend reversal. GBPINR is in a sideways range. Upcoming economic indicators that could impact the currencies are also listed.

1. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
USDINR
USDINR Technical View:
 USDINR change its trend as intermediate trend now is bullish.
 Price Pattern: USDINR prices after a sharp sell-off in Friday’s trading session open gap up changing the trend to bullish. Intermediate trend in dollar is bullish for next target of 62.25 levels to come. As per the price pattern formation the trend remains strongly bullish till dollar closes above 61.50 levels on hourly basis.
 Moving Average: Bullish trend remains intact with prices trading well above the both 50 & 20 EMA’s on hourly chart below. Also any short correction with prices trading above 50 EMA will provide a buying opportunity in USDINR for target of 62.25 levels.
 MACD: MACD indicator change is sell signal to buy as we have mentioned in previous report. The buy signal remains valid with prices trading at higher values. As mentioned above only if prices trade below 61.50 levels then only MACD sell signal to be consider valid else it will be better to ignore.
 RSI: RSI is exactly acting as per the price momentum with strong up move in price. RSI is now showing a strong gain of strength suggesting the uptrend to remain intact. Again if RSI reads lower but well above the mid-range level 50 will provide buying opportunity for the pair.
 ADX: As ADX indicator is reading well above the trending movement levels 25 suggesting USDINR to continue its strong uptrend till no major price reversal is formed. ADX is also hinting to the trending movement to remain in action till ADX do not read its value below 25 levels.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
30.09.14
06:30 PM S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
8.1%
7.5%
Actual>Expected=Good for USD
30.09.14
07:15 PM Chicago PMI
64.3
61.6
Actual>Expected=Good for USD
30.09.14
07:30 PM CB Consumer Confidence
92.4
92.2
Actual>Expected=Good for USD

2. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
EURINR
EURINR Technical View:
 EURINR is now trading at crucial levels with prices ready to change its downtrend to uptrend in today’s trading session.
 Price Pattern: After a strong downtrend prices have shown some strength to reverse its trend upwards soon. As prices have closed at high 78.69 levels suggesting the reversal to come in today’s trading session for the target of 79.00 levels.
 Moving Average: Prices in yesterday’s trading session made a strong attempt to cross the trend change level 50 & 20 EMA’s. If today prices close above the both EMA’s on hourly basis will confirm the change of trend to upside.
 MACD: Strong price movement in yesterday’s trading session has caused MACD to reverse its sell signal to buy signal. As mentioned above once price trade above the 50 & 20 EMA’s then MACD buy signal will remain valid for EURINR trading at higher levels.
 RSI: Momentum indicator RSI acted in-line with the price action and starts to read above the mid-level 50. The strength in RSI is strongly suggesting it will be reading much higher values at over brought levels confirming the strong uptrend in prices.
 ADX: ADX indictor will also act in-line with price movement as once price close above the both EMA’s then ADX will starts reading above the 25 levels suggesting strong trending movement to follow in EURINR to trade at higher levels.

3. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
30.09.14
11:30 AM German Retail Sales m/m
-1.4%
0.6%
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR
30.09.14
12:15 PM French Consumer Spending m/m
-0.2%
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR
30.09.14
01:25 PM German Unemployment Change
2K
-2K
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR
30.09.14 01:30 PM Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
12.6%
12.6%
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR
30.09.14 02:30 PM CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.3%
0.3%
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR
30.09.14 02:30 PM Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
0.9%
0.9%
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR
30.09.14 02:30 PM Unemployment Rate
11.5%
11.5%
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR
30.09.14 02:30 PM Italian Prelim CPI m/m
0.2%
-0.3%
Actual>Expected=Good for EUR

4. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
GBPINR
GBPINR Technical View:
 GBPINR is still in the “Rectangle” pattern taking patience of trader’s. Now only a strong breakout either side will tell who will govern the trend.
 Moving Average: Trend changer level 50 & 20 EMA’s is acting in the same way with price pattern. As sideways trend continues in pound both EMA’s are not giving any clear signal which way prices are now headed for. Only a strong price action if happens in today’s trading session will make pound to decide it’s confirm trend either side.
 MACD: MACD indicator is also giving the clueless signal as prices are trading in short range. Now with strong price action only will give a clear signal from MACD indicator else the same sideways trend to continue ignoring any signal from MACD.
 RSI: RSI indicator also acting in similar manner with pound sideways trend. Now the important level to watch will be if RSI stays above or below mid-range level 50 giving a clear picture of trend in GBPINR.
 ADX: Trend decider indicator ADX is clearly showing the sideways trend continuation as ADX is continuously reading the values well below 25 levels. Now ADX becomes the most important indicator if prices breakout either ways to tell us whether the trend is genuine or false.

5. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
30.09.14
04:35 AM GfK Consumer Confidence
1
0
Actual>Expected=Good for GBP
30.09.14
11:30 AM
Nationwide HPI m/m
0.8%
0.6%
Actual>Expected=Good for GBP
30.09.14
02:00 PM Current Account
-18.5B
-16.9B
Actual>Expected=Good for GBP
30.09.14
02:00 PM Final GDP q/q
0.8%
0.8%
Actual>Expected=Good for GBP
30.09.14
02:00 PM Prelim Business Investment q/q
5.0%
2.1%
Actual>Expected=Good for GBP
30.09.14
02:00 PM Index of Services 3m/3m
1.0%
1.0%
Actual>Expected=Good for GBP
30.09.14
02:00 PM Revised Business Investment q/q
Actual>Expected=Good for GBP

6. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
JPYINR
JPYINR Technical View:
 JPYINR is clearly showing the change of trend with price now ready for reversal to upside.
 Moving Average: The strong price action in yesterday’s trading session have changed the trend for JPYINR. Prices have close well above the both 50 & 20 EMA’s suggesting the complete trend reversal upside as long as prices close successfully above the both EMA’s on hourly basis.
 MACD: MACD has now given a clear buy signal for the pair suggesting the uptrend to remain intact. As MACD values are now well above the oversold region giving the strong validation for the uptrend in prices to continue.
 RSI: RSI indicator has also shown a strong momentum with its values now reading well above the mid-range 50 levels. Prices in today’s trading session starts to trade at higher levels RSI will stay above the mid-range levels suggesting the uptrend in prices remains intact.
 ADX: ADX which is showing the trendless will soon starts to show the trending nature for the pairs as prices to close above the yesterday’s high of 56.71 levels. ADX will also show how a strong trending movement will come in yen prices.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
30.09.14
05:00 AM Household Spending y/y
-5.9%
-3.9%
Actual>Expected=Good for JPY
30.09.14
05:00 AM Unemployment Rate
3.8%
3.8%
Actual>Expected=Good for JPY
30.09.14
05:20 AM Prelim Industrial Production m/m
0.4%
0.2%
Actual>Expected=Good for JPY
30.09.14
05:20 AM Retail Sales y/y
0.6%
0.4%
Actual>Expected=Good for JPY
30.09.14
07:00 AM Average Cash Earnings y/y
2.6%
1.1%
Actual>Expected=Good for JPY
30.09.14
10:30 AM Housing Starts y/y
-14.1%
-13.9%
Actual>Expected=Good for JPY

7. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
Amit Pawar (Research Associate) amit.pawar@choiceindia.com
Rohan Shinde (Research Associate) rohan.shinde@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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8. 30th Sept’ 14 Currency Highlights
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