The document provides a technical analysis of currency movements for USDINR, EURINR, GBPINR, and JPYINR. For USDINR, prices consolidated gains and support was found at the 200 period EMA on an hourly timeframe, suggesting further gains. For EURINR, prices closed flat after failing to sustain higher levels. GBPINR declined after taking resistance at a 61.8% retracement level. JPYINR closed near daily lows with support at 52.30 at risk of breakdown. Economic indicators are provided for each currency.

1. 26th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
USDINR
USDINR Technical View:
 As mentioned USDINR prices moved higher almost near our target of 62.10 levels. However failed to sustain at higher levels and inched lower. Bias remains positive.
 Price Pattern: On 15 minutes chart, prices are consolidating the previous up move from 61.66 – 62.03 levels.
 Moving Average: Prices have taken support near 200 period EMA on hourly timeframe which suggest prices could move higher. However on daily timeframe prices are still trading above both the EMA i.e. 10 period EMA and 30 period EMA.
 Retracement: Dip near 61.8% retracement level from 61.66 – 62.03 levels can be considered as good buying opportunity to move higher.
 Conclusion: Dip near 61.8 levels can be good buying opportunity to test 62/62.20 levels.

2. 26th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
EURINR
EURINR Technical View:
 Prices initially moved higher but failed to sustain at higher levels and closed on a flat note.
 Price Pattern: Prices traded in sideways throughout the trading session while traded in a small range.
 MACD: MACD remained below zero levels on daily as well as on hourly timeframe which gives negative confirmation for prices.
 Candlestick: On daily timeframe, prices have formed doji which indicates indecision in prices.
 Conclusion: Resistance lies near 77 levels below which prices would remain under pressure for the lower levels to test are 76.60/76.50.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
26.11.14
12.30 PM German Import Prices m/m
0.3%
-0.3%
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR
26.11.14
3.00 PM German 10-y Bond Auction
0.87|1.2
Actual > Expected=Good for EUR

3. 26th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
GBPINR
GBPINR Technical View:
 Prices opened on a flat note and inched higher but in the second half of the trading session GBPINR prices moved lower.
 Retracement: As mentioned in our previous report prices have taken resistance at the 61.8% retracement level of the previous down move from 97.65 – 96.53 levels which would give negative confirmation.
 Price Pattern: Prices are trading below the down trend line while in the previous trading session prices have taken resistance and drifted lower.
 Conclusion: As long as downtrend line is intact prices can drift lower towards 97.75 which are also the multiple support levels below which prices can test 97.60 levels. While breach of the mentioned trend line could move prices towards 97.30 levels.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
26.11.14
3.00 PM Second Estimate GDP q/q
0.7%
0.7%
Actual > Expected=Good for GBP
26.11.14
3.00 PM Prelim Business Investment q /q
3.3%
2.3%
Actual > Expected=Good for GBP
26.11.14
3.00 PM Index of Services 3m/3m
0.8%
0.7%
Actual > Expected=Good for GBP
26.11.14
4.30 PM CBI Realized Sales
31
28
Actual > Expected=Good for GBP

4. 26th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
JPYINR
JPYINR Technical View:
 As mentioned, JPYINR prices initially moved higher and in the second half prices drifted lower and closed near day’s low.
 Price Pattern: JPYINR prices are trading near the crucial support of 52.30 below which panic selling is expected.
 Moving Average: both the averages are trading above the prices which indicate weakness In the prices.
 MACD: MACD has crossed under the signal line below zero levels which would add bearishness in the prices..
 RSI: The momentum indicator, RSI on daily as well as on hourly timeframe is below 40 levels which indicate lack of momentum in price.
 Conclusion: Break below 52.30 levels could drift prices towards 52 levels while rallies can be used as selling opportunity.
Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
26.11.14
No Data For JPY Today

5. 26th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
Amit Pawar (Research Associate) amit.pawar@choiceindia.com
Rohan Shinde (Research Associate) rohan.shinde@choiceindia.com
Deveya Gaglani (Research Advisor) deveya.gaglani@chocieindia.com
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6. 26th Nov’14 Currency Highlights
Disclaimer
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