柏瑞週報 20201106

1. 6 November
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
ESG
•
2% 497
•
2%
NEXGEM 3.84%
Bloomberg 2020/11/5
0.03
1.20
0.17
0.76
0.91
0.67
1.04
1.23
0.37
1.23
1.20
1.58
2.08
1.91
2.27
2.62
0.16
0.22
0.44
0.53
0.58
0.64
0.78
0.89
1.01
1.06
1.30
1.39
2.08
2.31
2.44
3.03
-
ESG ( )
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
• S&P 500 6.05%
• 7.42%
DAX 8.36%
• 225 3.31%
Fujikura
• 300 2.35%
4%
•
1.29%
Bloomberg 2020/11/5
0.63
2.95
6.49
7.52
3.40
6.07
6.86
4.85
10.91
2.99
3.15
0.41
6.70
-2.03
1.11
-0.61
1.29
2.02
2.35
3.25
3.31
4.00
4.12
4.32
5.26
6.05
6.09
7.42
8.12
8.36
8.51
9.43
BAML
300
MSCI
Nikkei 225
SENSEX
MSCI
BOVESPA
H
S&P 500
MSCI
600
MSCI
DAX
RTS
MSCI
% %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg 2020/11/5
6.26
6.12
4.28
4.96
7.84
1.21
12.42
1.89
8.05
6.84
-1.10
-0.87
0.19
0.36
0.91
1.83
2.70
3.00
3.32
4.39
4.94
5.24
7.24
8.71
LME
LME
CRB
LME
LME
% %
•
7.24% 38.79
• 10 30
(EIA) 800 ( )

6. PAGE 5
• 65 18
20 11
7
• 13
23 17
11
BofA Global Research EPFR 2020/11/4
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM

8. PAGE 7
•
264 214
6 ( 1)
• 11
(1) 0% 0.25% (2)
2% (3) 1,200
MBS (4)
• 10 ISM PMI
59.3( 2) 2
10 60.2 67.9
2004
10 ISM PMI 56.6
Bloomberg 2020/11/5
( 2) ISM PMI
( 1)
2020/11/5 10:00

9. PAGE 8 Bloomberg 2020/11/5
( 2) ADP ( )
( 1)•
( 1)
•
11
120 150
Molina Healthcare
• S&P 500 88%
75% 7%
18%
EPS Paypal
General Motors Qorvo Lenovo Under Armour Exxon
Mobil Apache T-Mobile Uber Hyatt
• ADP
10 37 ( 2)
10
10
53 9 7.9% 7.7%

10. PAGE 9
• 3 GDP 3
(GDP) 12.7%( 1) 10%
3
16.1% 18.2%
4
GDP 7.4%
•
0.1%
1,500 8,950
2021
• 9
0.5% 5
6%
• 10
48.7 47.7( 2)
38%
3
3 GDP
( 1) GDP( %)
Bloomberg 2020/11/5
( 2) Markit PMI

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2020/11/5
• 10 Markit
(PMI) 53.6 ( 1)
PMI
56.8 10
• 10 Markit PMI
58.9( 2)
50 10 Markit PMI
66.7 2006 2
• 10 (CPI)
11.89% 9 11.75%
5%
•
1.75%
125
3
( 1) Markit PMI
( 2) / Markit PMI

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/11/6
/ /
11/9 11 Sentix - -8.3
11/10 11 ZEW - 52.3
11/10 10 CPI( ) 0.8% 1.7%
11/10 10 PPI( ) -2.0% -2.1%
11/10-15 10 772.4b 1,900.0b
11/11 9 ( ) 5.8% 6.1%
11/11 RBNZ 0.25% 0.25%
11/12 10 CPI( ) 1.3% 1.4%
11/12 9 ( ) -5.8% -7.2%
11/12 9 ( ) -0.5% 0.2%
11/12 9 ( ) 1.4% 0.8%
11/12 9 ( ) -1.5% -8.0%
11/12 10 CPI( ) 7.19% 7.34%
11/13 11 ( ) 82.2 81.8
11/13 10 PPI( ) 0.4% 0.4%
11/13 3 GDP ( ) -4.3% -4.3%
11/13 4.13% 4.25%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE
/ /
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 386 (11/5) 5 : 358
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.40 (11/5)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 1.96 (11/5)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 119 (11/5) 5 : 129

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg (Yield to Maturity)
Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.73 (11/5)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 497 (11/5) 5 : 480
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.63 (11/5)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 436 (11/5) 5 : 449

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.02 (11/5)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 440 (11/5) 5 : 397
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.63 (11/5)
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 745 (11/5) 5 : 501

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.88 (11/5)
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 405 (11/5) 5 : 370
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.45 (11/5)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 344 (11/5) 5 : 320

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (Yield to
Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst
/ /
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.00 (11/5)
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 637 (11/5) 5 : 578
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.83 (11/5)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 257 (11/5) 5 : 217

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
/ /
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 20.2 (11/5) 5 : 16.3
8
13
18
23
28
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.7 (11/5) 5 : 17.4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.8 (11/5) 5 : 14.7
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.5 (11/5) 5 : 16.4

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
/ /
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.7 (11/5) 5 : 12.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.6 (11/5) 5 : 12.1
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 21.1 (11/5) 5 : 17.7
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.1 (11/5) 5 : 12.4

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
/ /
0
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 27.58 (11/5) 5 : 17.49
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 43.8 (11/5) 5 : 61.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 55.3 (11/5) 5 : 64.2
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 362 (11/5) 5 : 382

22. PAGE 21
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/11/5 '16/11/5 '17/11/5 '18/11/5 '19/11/5 '20/11/5
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
'15/11/5 '16/11/5 '17/11/5 '18/11/5 '19/11/5 '20/11/5
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/11/5 '16/11/5 '17/11/5 '18/11/5 '19/11/5 '20/11/5
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'15/11/5 '16/11/5 '17/11/5 '18/11/5 '19/11/5 '20/11/5
5 1
33.3% 1.3%
28.1% 0.1%
5 1
37.3% 2.1%
30.3% 0.1%
5 1
35.3% 1.7%
29.2% 0.1%
5 1
31.4% 2.4%
25.1% 0.1%

23. PAGE 22
TR109322
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
• /
•
•
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898