15. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Papers published in Natural Hazards and NHESS
Natural Hazards Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences
Papers published in Natural Hazards
and NHESS, 1988-2013
1990s:
Average 45
2013:
Total 800
― Natural Hazards
― Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
1988 2013
450
16. Founded in 2012
to promote
genuinely
interdisciplinary
work.
It is one of 67
dedicated DRR
journals and more
than 500 that
publish papers
in this field.
17. • from two or three journals in 1970s
to 70 dedicated journals in 2013,
+ c. 500 that publish DRR papers
• the disaster "gold rush" mentality
• the rediscovery of the [well-]
known by inexperienced researchers
• failure to produce new theory.
On the productivity of disaster science
• the rise of misleading bibliometry
19. Some links
Effects of
technology on
vulnerability to
natural disasters
Effects of natural
disasters on
technological capital
Social conditions
as factors that
incubate
dissidence
Technological
component
ofactsof
terrorism
Intentional
disasters
Technological
disasters
Social
disasters
Natural
disasters
20. Gertrude Stein,
1913 [adapted]
A disaster is
a disaster is
a disaster...
Its "disastrousness" is not
defined by its causal agent.
25. Squatter settlement
in Bangladesh Flood level
Normal river level
Rather than mitigating the sources of
vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is
maintaining, exporting and reinforcing
them by its divide-and-rule strategies.
26. Vulnerability
Total: life is
generally precarious
Economic: people lack
adequate occupation
Technological/technocratic: due
to the riskiness of technology
Delinquent: caused by
corruption, negligence, etc.
Residual: caused by
lack of modernisation
Newly generated: caused by
changes in circumstances
28. • population increases in hazard zones
• society is more complex and polarised
• new sources of vulnerability
• cascading and complex impacts
• failure adequately to mitigate risk.
Have disasters been getting worse?
31. • the relative view: there are
plenty of other sources of risk
• increased information flows
make things seem worse
• more agencies are at work on disasters
• disasters are getting more political.
Have disasters been getting worse?
32. Have we made any
serious progress at all
in DRR since 1983?
35. • the main emphasis is still on reacting
to disasters, not reducing disaster risk
• there has been an enormous rise in
hazards studies, but much less effort
has gone on studying vulnerability
• the social and perceptual components
of disaster remain undervalued
• the role of theory is underestimated.
Progress in disaster risk reduction?
38. Victimisation of women and girls in and
after disaster is common throughout
the world, but in many cases
the reasons are poorly understood.
39. One in six deaths was an
old lady whose death was not
predicted by demographics
40. • an excess of deaths among women
• very high post-traumatic stress levels
• victimisation in survivors' families
• failure to consider female perspective
• decision making largely by men.
Women and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake
41.
42. • "forgiveness money"
• vote buying
• political control through
funding decisions
• corruption and
theft of funds
• profiteering and deliberate
distortion of markets.
Welfare and...
47. • an objective, a process or a strategy?
• a paradigm, diverse paradigms?
• 'bounce-back' or 'bounce-forward'?
• focuses on the community scale?
• can reconcile dynamic & static elements?
Resilience
49. RISKS
daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.
major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.
emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
SUSTAINABILITY
disaster risk reduction
resource consumption
stewardship of the environment
economic activities
lifestyles and communities
SUSTAINABILITY
50. RESILIENCE:
as a material has brittle
strength and ductility:
so must society have
an optimum combination
of resistance to
hazard impacts and
ability to adapt to them.
53. Causes of disaster
natural geophysical,
technological, social
History
single and
cumulative
impact
of past
disasters
Human
cultures
constraints
and
opportunities
IMPACTS
Adaptation
to risk
RESILIENCE
54. Long term
Short term
Emic components
Etic components
METAMORPHOSIS
OF CULTURE
Experiences of culture
[mass-media and consumer culture]
Accumulated cultural traits and beliefs
Inherited cultural background
Ideological
(non-scientific)
interpretations
of disaster
Learned
(scientific)
interpretations
of disaster
57. • as Kai Erikson noted, disaster shifts
our position on fundamental dimensions
• we live in the New Baroque Age
• characterised by tension of opposites
• massive cultural dynamism is
redefining the symbolism of disaster
• to understand disaster, we
need to be interdisciplinary
with boldness and ingenuity.
58. There is no doubt
that "we live in
interesting times".